Almost there.
SURF:
Great weather this past week and just a little bit of NW windswell to draw you into the line up. Water temps even hit a peak yesterday afternoon of 68 degrees in north county SD. Like the rest of you, I'm waiting on the inevitable big chill that usually happens in June (i.e. a few days of NW wind that drops our water temps to an unbearable 57 degrees). I'm keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen and we just cruise into July with 75 degree water temps instead.
So what's on tap for the surf this weekend? We've got a slowly building NW windswell that will peak with chest high sets in north county SD Sunday morning and shoulder high sets in south SD. And as luck would have it, we had a semi-organized storm last week in the southern hemisphere and we should get some chest high sets from it in north county SD Saturday afternoon into Sunday. The OC should have shoulder high sets. Neither swell is big but since we haven't had real surf in awhile, the combo swell this weekend should at least be playful.
Tides are starting to get extreme the next few days; 2' at sunrise, 4' mid-morning, down to 1' after lunch, and over 7' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
Next weekend is looking pretty flat. The north Pacific is looking dormant and the southern hemisphere is forecasted to have some activity but it's either under South America (to south for us) or either getting blocked by New Zealand and the south Pacific islands. At least the WCT in Fiji will have surf for the Volcom contest...
WEATHER:
High pressure is in control and we have night and morning low clouds being replaced by hazy afternoon sunshine today. That holds into tomorrow but a weak front moves through Nor-Cal Saturday and we get a slight increase in the marine layer down here Sunday. Temps will still be near 70 though at the coast once he clouds burn off mid-day. By Monday evening another weak trough moves through and we'll get more extensive low clouds and a chance for drizzle through Tuesday. The 2nd half of next week looks good as high pressure builds, the clouds disappear, and temps hit the mid-70's. No real June Gloom to speak off in the coming week...
BEST BET:
Tough call- maybe slightly better weather Saturday and a building NW/SW combo AND 68 degree water. Or maybe Sunday with the peaking swells but the clouds will take longer to burn off at the coast. Either way, looks like some fun little waves this weekend.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Hurricane predictions are starting to get a little more detailed this summer. NOAA is reporting this week that when the first hurricane emerges from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico this season, there is a new statistical model to help predict the start of the “eyewall replacement cycle,” a key indicator that a storm’s strength and size is about to change dramatically. This new tool adds to a suite of forecast products NOAA uses to warn coastal communities of imminent threats. An eyewall is an organized band of clouds that immediately surround the center, or eye, of a hurricane. The most intense winds and rainfall occur near the eyewall. Within a hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles occur when a second concentric eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it. This phenomenon especially happens in strong, long-lived hurricanes. “Hurricanes usually strengthen and grow gradually over time, but eyewall replacement cycles can cause very sudden changes in size and intensity,” said Jim Kossin, a scientist with NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, who led the effort to create the model. The model predicts the start of the developing eyewall replacement cycle by measuring key aspects of the storm’s structure and environment and relating these to the conditions observed during past replacement cycles. Kossin said skillful forecasting of these natural cycles is crucial to protecting life and property. “As it was approaching New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina weakened but grew in size because of an eyewall replacement cycle and the huge wind field led to an enormous storm surge that devastated the Gulf Coast,” Kossin said. The model uses data from NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) to identify hurricane structure patterns related to eyewall replacement cycles. Microwave images from NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites were incorporated extensively to create the model using past data. "This is an important first step towards understanding how we can use the eyewall cycle to someday improve intensity forecasts,” said James Franklin, branch chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center. Considering the Atlantic hurricane season has already gotten off to a quick start- with tropical storms Alberto and Beryl forming during the month of May, this new statistical model is needed in a hurry. In regards to Alerberto and Beryl, this is the first time since 1908 that two tropical cyclones developed before June 1st. Tropical storm Beryl, which came ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida early on May 28th is the strongest pre-June tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States...
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If you're a fan of surf films like me (between VHS tapes, DVD's, and now digital copies- I must have over 100 films in my library. What a loser), then you'll love what the NY Surf Film festival has done. They've scoured the internet to find every single trailer that lives on the web and put it in one convenient place. From films like Kelly Slater's Black and White to The Cosmic Children to Beyond Blazing Boards to today's Lost Atlas. You can spend days wasting your time there. I know I have. 300+ trailers in all. Make sure to check it out on he blog. As well as the mid-week Surf Check and more detailed THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
How many shots of New Zealand have I posted over the years on THE Surf Report? 50? 100? 5000? Sure seems like it. How can I not though? Cool scenery, lack of crowds, and great set ups. Kind of like California back in the 1800's. But with Dumpster Divers and E Bomb fullsuits of course.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Not Sure What the W. Stands For
Bringing Macho Back
2012 Western Oz Surfing Hall of Fame Inductee With Thorson/Macauly/Patterson
