Surf Check

Man is it a hot one out there today- and we've got at least another couple days of this. But first to the surf.

Had a solid southern hemi swell show up on Saturday- just as a late season storm was passing through. Should have been good on Saturday with the combo SW/NW swells but instead the 20-30mph NW winds tore it to shreds. Sunday morning though was firing if you got on it early then the SW winds blew mid morning. Today we still have fun SW/NW in the water for chest high waves and amazing conditions. Wind is currently blowing offshore around 10-20mph and the air temp was already 75 at 5am this morning. Look for both swells to back off slightly tomorrow and we'll have some waist high+ surf with better sets towards the OC as it will pick up remnants of the SW.

Water temps are all over the place as the offshore winds are causing upwelling in some areas. Point Loma is report 64 degrees while at the other end of the spectrum, Scripps is reporting 56. Ouch. Oceanside and Torrey Pines buoys report 62 but I think that may drop a few degrees tomorrow as the offshore winds keep blowing.

As far as our weather goes, this 'Santa Ana' wind event is a lot stronger than I expected just a few days ago. Models were showing temps in the mid-80's at the beaches but we've already hit that by 10am today and will probably hit the mid-90's. Look for the winds to back off slightly tomorrow but temps to still be in the 90's. By Friday it starts to cool down- just slightly to the mid-80's- as high pressure weakens from an approaching cold front up north. We may even get fog by Sunday and temps near normal- 75 degrees. Next week the models hint at a shot of showers around Tuesday but I'm taking that news with a grain of salt.

So what's our surf doing? Not much unfortunately. High pressure is effectively blocking our storms at sea in the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere has gone quiet after that big SW swell last weekend. We've got a couple little NW swells on the charts for the weekend but we'll only see waist high waves here with maybe chest high sets in SD.

Further out, if those showers develop like I mentioned above, we may get more waist-chest high NW windswell by Tuesday/Wednesday.

As far as the southern hemisphere goes, it's still pretty quiet but models show a storm on the edge of our swell window trying to take shape in a couple days. Unfortunately it would be a SSE swell- which would bypass us and most of the OC- but select S swell spots may see some chest high waves from it around May 8th.

So until then, enjoy the summer type weather.

THE Surf Report

1 last day of winter- 4 weeks late.

SURF:

Had some fun surf the past few days- and some nice weather- and that will all change this weekend. I've got good news and bad news.

First the good news- we had a solid storm last week off Antarctica and it sent us a good SW that will arrive this weekend. Bad news is that we have the last storm of the season moving down the coast tomorrow that will peak- you guessed it- when that new SW arrives. So as the SW fills in late Friday, the late season storm will kick it up a notch.

Look for overhead SW swell Saturday morning AND overhead NW windswell too as the winds will be blowing 25mph from the W. By Sunday the SW will be hanging on as the NW dies BUT- we will have good weather and more head high+ waves. Water temps are a nice 65 degrees but they may drop after the storm blows through this weekend- keep the 4/3 handy just in case.

Tides the next few days are about 5' at sunrise, down to 0' at 2pm, and back to 5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the big junky combo swell on Saturday and the cleaner fun surf on Sunday, we're left with... nothing next week. Models show nothing from the southern hemisphere or northern hemisphere headed our way.

One chart shows a little NW windswell for chest high waves late Monday into Tuesday but that's nothing to write home about. So get the surf while you can this weekend- stormy or otherwise!

WEATHER:

Hope you enjoyed the nice summer like weather the past few days because the next few days are going to be winter like. We've got a late season storm headed our way tomorrow and we'll start to get some clouds and wind late in the day. By Saturday morning we'll have gusty SW winds around 25 mph and a shot of showers in the 1/4" range. Nothing major- just a fly in the ointment before summer- and we'll be back to normal by Sunday. High pressure sets up next week and some potential readings near 80 degrees at the beaches by mid-week.

BEST BET:
Sunday as there will still be plenty of SW/NW in the water AND clean weather finally!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
If you’ve been a reader of the North County Surf blog the past few years, you’ve most likely ran across a few earthquake and tsunami stories. Such as how to prepare for a tsunami, the damage tsunami’s can do, more tsunami preparation again, and potential southern California tsunami damage (you can see them here if you're looking to kill a few hours at work):

• 'How to prepare for a Tsunami'
• 'Tsunami Damage'
• 'Tsunami Preparation'
• 'Potential So-Cal Tsunami Damange'

And the granddaddy of them all- March 2011’s story about how 3 out of the 4 corners of the Pacific Rim had large earthquakes all within a few month’s time: Late 2010’s big 8.8 quake in Chile (the southeast corner of the Pacific). Then it moved to the southwest of the Pacific with the horrific 6.3 New Zealand quake. And then in early March 2011 it moved up to the northwest of the Pacific with Japan's 9.0 blowout. So where was the 4th corner that was spared? California of course…

Not to freak anyone out, but considering all the earthquakes we’ve had lately around the Pacific Rim (8.2 in Chile on 4/1, 7.6 in the Solomon Islands on 4/3, 7.2 in Mexico on 4/18, 6.6 in British Columbia today, 6.6 off the coast of Nicaragua on 4/11, 6.5 off Fiji on 3/26, 6.0 off Panama on 4/2, and countless others that happen more often then I’d like to mention), our luck really can’t last one more time, can it? Regardless, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a refresher course on being prepared for an emergency. Before we get started though, let’s take a look at what a tsunami can do- since this blog is surf based of course. The largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.5 in 1960 that occurred in Chile’s subduction zone. The resulting tsunami killed 61 people in Hawaii and 138 in Japan. The quake and tsunami combined caused 1,655 deaths. Both of these quakes occurred in what is called a subduction zone, where an oceanic plate is being pushed beneath a continental plate and back into the Earth’s mantle. A continuous subduction zone runs along South America’s Pacific border. Subduction zones are capable of bigger quakes than any other type of plate boundary, and are also responsible for the active volcanoes that ring the Pacific Ocean. The second largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.2 in a subduction zone near Anchorage Alaska in 1964, which resulted in a tsunami that killed 11 people nearly 2,000 miles away in Crescent City, California and 128 people total with waves that reached up to 220 feet high in places. A tsunami caused by another subduction zone event in the Pacific Northwest in 1700 damaged boats, fields and houses in Japan. And of course, the tragic 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused by a magnitude 9.1 earthquake in a subduction zone by Sumatra killed more than 200,000 people.

Now of course a tsunami is only part of the problem. The earthquake is the other hazard we need to be prepared for. There’s a million places on-line that you can find useful information to prepare for a disaster but one of the most thorough is the County of San Diego's Emergency Services page. Thorough because it gives you a game plan before, during, and after a disaster. Another page I’ve had book marked for a while- like 2 ½ years because of the power outage we had in the late summer of 2011- is the San Diego Union Tribune’s story titled ‘Are you prepared for a real disaster?' If you want more information, have a gander at the Red Cross's website, FEMA (if you still believe in them after Hurricane Katrina) and I’m not going to bore you with the details as every family needs their own particular plan, but at least it’s a start and you should carve out a few hours this weekend to start planning! Just in case…

PIC OF THE WEEK:
It's amazing to think there's waves like this that go unridden all around the world. My goal in life to create one of those Star Trek transporter things and take every single last surfer on earth and plop them down on their own empty wave. Of course some people would get their own empty wave in Alaska or some butt cold place but hey- beggars can't be choosers.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Upper Crust
Perfect SAT Score. Twice.
Boothy's Stunt Double In Performers 2

THE Surf Report

Winter won't give up.

SURF:
Not much of a week for surf we just had.

Only background SW/NW swells and some dreary weather. Today isn't much of the same as we have small NW/SW swells in the water for waist high+ waves. Maybe SD or the OC has chest high sets but not much else.

The SW though will fill in a little more tomorrow and we may see some chest high waves here this weekend.

There's some small NW on the charts too but it will only be waist high at best. Hopefully if the weather clears up tomorrow it may make for some fun small combo peaks.

Water temps are trying to hold on to 60 and tides the next few days are about -1' at sunrise, up to 3.5' at lunch, and down to 1' late afternoon. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the small weekend of surf, we have a cold front moving through late Tuesday/Wednesday which will give us windy conditions and solid short interval NW windswell for head high sets.

Right behind it is some good SW if the charts hold up. The OC may get head high+ waves from it- if the cold front exits quickly and it's not lost under all that chop. We then have another shot of NW swell late Thursday for more head high sets down here. All in all there's some waves coming but the cold front arriving the middle of next week may mess things up.

WEATHER:

We've got weak low pressure overhead today and it's giving us plenty of clouds, cool weather, and SW winds that should pick up later. That hangs around early tomorrow then we get sunshine for Easter Sunday into early Tuesday. Clouds then start to thicken up again as our next low pressure moves down the state late Tuesday/Wednesday. At this point in time, models show a shot of light showers mid-week and some windy weather. After that, I'm hoping for nice weather late next week into the weekend.

BEST BET:
Small peaky clean surf on Saturday from the small SW/NW or junkier bigger surf next Thursday from the SW/NW and passing cold front.
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:  

If you’ve been reading the North County Surf blog the past month, you’ve been keeping track of the El Nino hype machine. NOAA came out with some strong data this week suggesting we’re already at the beginning of an El Nino and it's looking solid. Surfline yesterday did their own analysis of the latest NOAA data as well as Wired magazine. Odd that a large tech publication would do a story on El Nino but they actually did a good job going into detail on the overall impacts- whether it be weather related or impacts to the economy. They seemed to come to the same conclusion everyone is thinking- this upcoming El Nino could be a doozy. Considering the big ones in recent memory have been about 15 years apart (‘69/’70, ‘82/’83, and ‘97/’98), the upcoming ‘14/’15 is overdue. Here’s what they had to say:

Attention, weather superfans: El Niño might be coming back. And this time, we could be in for a big one.

Official NOAA Climate Prediction Center estimates peg the odds of El Niño’s return at 50 percent, but many climate scientists think that is a lowball estimate. And there are several indications that if it materializes, this year’s El Niño could be massive, a lot like the 1997-98 event that was the strongest on record.

“I think there’s no doubt that there’s an El Niño underway,” said climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. “The question is whether it’ll be a small or big one.”

On top of some late-’90s nostalgia, a strong El Niño would bring pronounced changes to weather patterns around the globe, and possibly relief from some of the less-pleasant weather trends that have dominated headlines this year. After a Polar Vortex-fueled, unbearably cold winter in the U.S. Midwest and East Coast, a strong El Niño could bring warmer, drier weather in late 2014. And to parched California and its prolonged drought, El Niño might provide drenching rainstorms to fill up reservoirs. But the news won’t all be good. Rainstorms in California could mean floods and mudslides and, coupled with climate change, El Niño could bring harsher droughts to parts of Australia and Africa.

Beyond general outlines, it can be tough to say exactly what will happen with El Niño, so we’re going to break down some potential scenarios.

El Niño (which is Spanish for “the Niño”) is a recurring weather pattern affecting the world every two to seven years. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the trade winds typically blow east to west, gathering warm water as they go and pooling it in the west. This creates a temperature gradient with cold water in the east, near the coast of South America, and warmer water southwest of Hawaii.
“But at some point the system says, ‘There’s too much warm water piling up here, I’m going to have an El Niño,’” said Trenberth.

The trade winds at this point usually weaken or even reverse entirely, moving warm water eastward. As it travels, this warm water starts emerging from deep in the ocean and heating up the atmosphere. These are the conditions that scientists are seeing right now. Moreover, the blob of warm water in the east is unusually large this year, leading many researchers to predict a monstrous El Niño is on its way.

“The main question right now is if this entire warm-pool region will accelerate to the eastern basin or stick in the middle of the Pacific,” said meteorologist Michael Ventrice of Weather Services International.

If the warm water decides to stick around at the International Date Line or so, we will get what is called an El Niño “Modoki” (which is Japanese for “similar, but different,” a word that every language should really have). Cold water would remain in the eastern Pacific during El Niño Modoki, leading to less rainfall in California than during a strong El Niño. But scientists have only noticed El Niño Modokis events in a few recent years and they are not yet exactly sure what brings it about.
Should the warm pool make it all the way to the South American coast, a much stronger “full-basin” El Niño will appear. And then we could be in for some big weather changes.

A strong El Niño could start affecting the world as early as the fall. The Pacific hurricane season, which gets active around September, is greatly enhanced during El Niño. This likely means more tropical thunderstorms that could affect eastern Pacific areas such as Mexico. In contrast, Atlantic hurricanes are suppressed, meaning fewer and less severe storms with a lower chance of making landfall and doing damage.

The winter is when El Niño really gets going, though. Moisture flows from Hawaii to southern California in an atmospheric river colloquially known as the “Pineapple Express.” This creates heavy rainfall that dumps on the region. Though this could bring some relief from California’s drought, it also comes with the risk of flash floods and mudslides because the ground has been so hard and dry.
El Niño has other effects further into North America. It tends to enhance the jet stream, creating a wall that prevents Arctic air (and the Polar Vortex) from dipping down to mid-latitudes. East Coast winters are generally drier and warmer during El Niño years, which is probably good news to those still smarting from this recent frigid season. The mild winter has interesting downstream effects, like a boost for the U.S. economy during the Christmas season.

“We saw a lot of retail sales go up in 1997,” said Ventrice. “People were going outside spending more money.”

Other economic consequences aren’t as sanguine. A full-basin El Niño disrupts cycles of fish in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Many of these species are usually caught and ground up into fishmeal, which is fed to farm animals in the U.S. The increased price of fishmeal drives meat prices up as well.
There is some indication that El Niño years coincide with stronger than average tornado seasons. Some of the worst years for tornadoes have occurred during what could be called “Hall of Fame” El Niño years such as 1982 and 1998. But the bottom line, said climate scientist Klaus Wolter of the University of Colorado, Boulder, is that it’s complicated. Tornadoes are caused by many different factors, and predicting what this year’s season will look like is difficult.

There is another large-scale effect in the atmosphere that this year’s El Niño is likely to interact with, and that is climate change. The last large El Niño in 1997-98 occurred with lower levels of CO2 and things have changed in the intervening decade and a half. The Indian Ocean, for instance, has seen increased storm activity, which tends to detract from activity in the Pacific. “How this all evolves is certainly worth watching,” said Trenberth.

El Niño dries out places like India and Indonesia, causing a less severe monsoon. And it increases the risk of drought in places like Australia and Africa. With climate change, droughts have been growing more severe so this upcoming season could be a bad one. The end of El Niño also tends to heat up surface temperatures slightly, as the warm equatorial waters dump their energy into the atmosphere, the effects of which are usually felt approximately half a year later. The end of the last big El Niño was in 1998, the warmest year on record. Another temperature record holder is 2005, which followed an El Niño year.

“There’s a big chance that in 2015 there is going to be a bump in the global temperature,” said Klaus Wolter.

Finally, though a strong El Niño is looking ever more likely, it is far from a done deal. In 2012, a big El Niño appeared to be building up and ended up crashing before it got too far along. But if conditions remain as they are right now, by June researchers will know that El Niño is on its way

PIC OF THE WEEK:

How do I love thee? Let me count the ways in this pic:
1. Warm water
2. Tropical weather
3. Empty beach
4. Hollow left
5. Short paddle
6. No kooks!

Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Gentry
Raised by Wombats
Just Found Out Clark Foam Closed

Surf Check

The lack of surf and cool conditions is really starting to get on my nerves. Nothing to report the last few days as it's been cloudy, small, and cold water to deal with.

Luckily for us we have a new SW filling in today. Really only showing in the OC right now but we should have chest high sets tomorrow around here. I was hoping it would fill in yesterday but it took it's sweet time getting from Antarctica to Southern California so I can't blame it for the long haul.

On it's heels we have NW windswell taking shape from a weak cold front coming our way tomorrow (more on that below). We should see some chest high sets from the NW filling in on Thursday that will last through the weekend. Along with the SW tomorrow, it may be kind of fun on Thursday with the combo swell- except for the low clouds/fog (more on that below).

As the NW hangs around this weekend, we get a reinforcement from the SW on Friday. Nothing big but head high sets in the OC and shoulder high sets in far north county SD from the combo swells.

AND THEN... the models show that the north Pacific hasn't died yet as 2 new NW groundswells are on the charts for next week. Hoping to see some chest high sets towards Monday and maybe shoulder high sets around Wednesday if everything comes together.

And last but not least, the models show a monster of a storm forming around the 20th which would send some fun waves about the 25th and peaking with overhead sets on the 28th- with bigger waves in the OC. Unfortunately the models have over hyped every storm 7-10 days out so I won't hold my breath with this one. I should though have a better idea on this Friday's THE Surf Report.

So now that you've read all that, what's the weather doing? Well, we've got weak high pressure starting to break down today and we'll get more persistent low clouds/fog tomorrow as a weak low pressure moves by to our north. Look for temps in the low-mid 60's at the beaches and stubborn clouds hugging the coast all day. Weak high pressure sets up again for Easter Sunday and we've got sunnier skies and temps near 70. That lasts through Tuesday. Then models show another weak trough moving by to the north for more low clouds/fog the middle of next week. This time of year is so boring around here.

As far as our water temps go, all that WNW wind the past few days hasn't helped and we're sitting at a chilly 58 degrees. Tides the next few days are around 3' at sunrise, up to 4.5' around 11am, down to 1' about 4pm, and up slightly to 3' at sunset. Have a good week and good luck wave hunting!

THE Surf Report

 Not winter. Not summer. It's spring.

  

SURF:

 

Some just off and on NW/SW the past few days. Best combo spots in far north county SD and far north OC had shoulder high peaks mid-week and today both swells have backed off for waist high waves.

 

We do though have a little more SW filling in tomorrow as well as a tiny NW on it's heels. Late Saturday or Sunday morning may be small but fun.

Water temps are still floating towards the high 50's and tides the next few days are about 4' at sunrise, down to 0' at 2pm, and back up to 4' at sunrise. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

  

FORECAST:

Kind of in a holding pattern around here. The north Pacific is slowly dying while the southern hemisphere hasn't fully kicked in yet.

 

After the little combo swell this weekend we get some head high NW windswell mid-week then another SW groundswell arrives late in the week for shoulder high sets here and head high+ sets in the OC. Can't complain- it's will be rideable- just not big enough for the 6'6" step up!

  

WEATHER:

 

Typical spring- a few cold fronts coming through but they're not strong enough to be winter storms and not weak enough to get pushed into Canada during our summer time. So we get left with feeble low pressure systems rolling through for increased clouds, a little fog here and there, as well a sprinkles overhead. We've got that through tomorrow then high pressure sets up for Sunday/Monday. And guess what- another weak storm is on the charts for the middle of next week. THEN.... high pressure sets up for next weekend. Pretty predictable around here...

  

BEST BET:

Hmmm... Maybe late Saturday/early Sunday with peaking small SW swell and building small NW windswell. Or the middle of next week with a better NW or late next week with a better SW. So really, I have no idea.

   

NEWS OF THE WEEK:  

On this day in history!...

1967: 2.18 inches of precipitation fell in Big Bear Lake, the greatest daily amount on record for April. Ten inches of snow fell in Palomar Mountain, the greatest daily snowfall on record for April. This also occurred on 4/17/1963.

1965: A cold late-season storm that started on 4/7 and ended on 4/11 brought heavy rainfall and snowfall to the region. Over the period 7.66 inches of precipitation fell in Lake Arrowhead (with nearly 50 inches of new snow). 5.44 inches fell in Palomar Mountain (with 13 inches of snow), 4.36 inches in Big Bear Lake, 4.25 inches at Cuyamaca, and 3.14 inches in Idyllwild (with 24 inches of snow). 1.5 to 2 inches of rain fell across the coastal basin. Mountain roads were closed.

1953: It was 31° in Santa Ana, the lowest temperature on record for April.

1941: It snowed three inches in Victorville, the greatest daily snowfall on record for April and the latest measurable snowfall of the season.

1922: It was 30° in Escondido, the lowest temperature on record for April.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Tired of cold, small, crowded surf lately? Here's your chance to win a trip to the Mentawais! But you gotta act quick as the contest is ending today. I've got a friend of a friend who owns the WavePark Surf Resort in the Mentawais (which makes him my best friend now) and he's giving away a trip to his resort. Check it out on the blog asap! Plus a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below! 

  

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Barrels come in different shapes and sizes. Some are big enough to drive a Mack truck through. Others are almond shaped. And slabs seem to be all the rage now. But there's nothing like a good ol' fashioned square nugget- like today's Pic of the Week. Hope you know how to drive, pump, and weave through barrels; you'll need it for this one.

  

Keep Surfing,

 

Michael W. Glenn

Mesmerizing

Only Double Winner of The Voice AND American Idol

Like To Go Left At The Box

 

Deal of the Week: Free Mentawais! Contest ends tomorrow!

I thought that would get your attention. The Deal of the Week on the North County Surf Blog is... FREE! Well, not entirely free- you have to win it. But if you win it... It's FREE!

You see, I've got a friend who's got a friend who happens to own the WavePark Surf Resort in the Mentawais. So that makes him... my new best friend. 'Him' is Christie Carter, and he's is giving away a 10 day trip to his resort.

So who is Christie Carter? Christie was born in New Zealand but spent half his childhood in Point Loma (great surf- but no resort). As a kid, his dad bought an Airstream and parked it down in Rosarito where he spent many a weekend riding waves in Baja. After catching the surf bug, he moved to Indonesia at the age of 22 and started the WavePark- the 1st resort in the Mentawais and has lived there for 16 years.

So at this point, you're probably asking "How the heck do I win this contest so I can personally meet Christie?!" Just head on over here and become a subscriber to their mailing list before April 12th and you'll go in the draw. Feel free to forward to a friend or family or enemy- whoever, and the winner will be picked at random from their list.

So if you win, what do you get? Here's the skinny:

• Padang airport - hotel transfers for you and all your luggage in air conditioned comfort.
• Tour guide while in Padang, on call 24/7.
• Speedboat transfers from Padang - Mentawai and return (4.5 hours one way).
• Guided surfing and fishing speedboat service all day, everyday.
• 3 meals a day and resort-provided drinks (aside from sodas and alcohol).
• The bungalows include full bath indoor/outdoor ensuite. All bungalows are complete with outdoor day beds, beach chaise lounges and sound system included. The bungalows are perfect for couples or families.
• WavePark facilities included ping pong and pool games room, snorkeling trips, fishing missions, photography platform, frisbee golf course, TV/DVD/Digital projector, and guided coconut plantation trips.
• Guests also have access to extras such as massage services, full bar, satellite telephone, recording studio, wireless high speed internet, and a full-time resort photographer.
• In 2014 the Mentawai Government's 10% accommodation and restaurant tax is included in the prize.
• WavePark includes the price of surfing further afield; Telescopes, Scarecrows and Icelands is included in the surfing area that our guests have access to.
• With a maximum capacity of 12 surfers, the Wavepark Mentawai surf camp guests have the entire island for their exclusive use.

So what are you waiting for?! Are you happy surfing crowded, cold, crappy surf? Of course not! Especially since the WavePark's goal is to:always strive to deliver the best value surfing vacation in the WORLD to their clients. Their mission is to:

• Challenge our guests to surf the best waves of their lives while understanding and catering to their physical and mental limitations.
• Deliver facilities, service and experiences that exceed our client expectations.
• Create a sustainable base of clients that can be depended upon to return and bring new clients with them.
• Constantly upgrade to new technology, facilities and systems that adds value, safety and convenience for clients.
• Create employee hiring and retention policies that strive to keep revenue streams generated as local and supportive as possible.
• Provide training and skill acquirement opportunities for communities and individuals who would otherwise be unable to benefit from skilled foreign labor.
• Take a proactive stance towards environmental conservation including reef, soil, forest and wildlife.

Remember, the contest ends this Saturday the 12th, so make sure to sign up here. And if you still need more convincing, get the full scoop on their website. Good luck!