Spoiler Alert!
SURF:
L-O-V-E love this time of year. Tropical weather, warm water, and hurricane surf. That's what I'm talkin' about! Sorry, a little fired up tonight. Let's start from the beginning.
FORECAST:
Alright. Let's get to the meat and potatoes of the report. First up, activity in the southern hemisphere. Weak. Not much headed our way except some background chest high set waves towards Thursday of next week. But that's going to get run over by Marie. Spoiler alert!...
So who's Marie? Only the greatest hurricane in like 100 years. Ok, not that long. And she hasn't even hit hurricane status yet, but models show Marie getting her act together at the beginning of next week and if all comes together, a major hurricane with winds around 120mph and headed N towards us. Since we haven't had big hurricane surf in a LOOOOOONG time, this is probably one to call in sick for. We should have Marie's S swell fill in fairly quickly on Thursday and last into at least Saturday with well overhead surf here and at least triple overhead surf at places like the Wedge. So there- I just jinxed it. Hope you're happy. Make sure to check out the blog to see the mid-week Surf Check on Marie's status and an in-depth THE Surf Report.
After Marie's supposed swell late next week, charts show the southern hemisphere putting together a little storm which may give us chest-shoulder high waves around the 5th of September. But until then, all eyes are on Marie to see what she'll do...
WEATHER:
Fantastic weather Wednesday morning. If you ever wondered what a Florida summer is like, now you know. Humid, lightening, thunder, downpours, and warm sun once it cleared out. The combination of an early season low pressure system (a sign of things to come from El Nino?) and some tropical moisture from Baja created the perfect conditions for mayhem around here. Surprised Governor Brown didn't call a state of emergency in north county San Diego. Everything has since calmed down and we have high pressure setting up shop this weekend and into next week for nice weather and temps in the mid-70's. Pretty comfortable for late August.
BEST BET:
Next Friday if Marie doesn't disappoint.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So what's the latest with El Nino? A lot of hype the past 6-9 months with the warm water temps this spring but things seemed to cool down in late July/early August. Luckily for us the hurricanes are starting to kick into gear and El Nino may be getting a second wind. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration did a report last week on it's current status and future. Here's what they had to say:
July was a rough month for the potential development of El Niño. Waiting for El Niño is starting to feel like Waiting for Godot. NOAA's early August El Nino discussion showed trends were in the opposite direction, particularly with respect to the ocean. Below-average temperatures emerged at the surface in the eastern equatorial Pacific and were widespread below the surface. The appearance of seemingly unfavorable conditions has led to some comparisons with 2012, when an emerging El Niño instead collapsed. Are we in 2012 territory again? Is this El Niño again a bust?
In 2012, sea surface temperatures were certainly above their normal average, but the atmosphere remained fickle. In fact, certain atmospheric features across the tropical Pacific remained more suggestive of La Niña, the opposite condition of El Niño. Namely, rainfall was above average near the Maritime Continent (north of Australia), which is a common feature associated with La Niña
In 2014, we have again struggled to see clear atmosphere-ocean coupling (i.e. interaction). For several months, the Niño-3.4 index (which tracks sea surface temperature anomalies in the east-central equatorial Pacific) increased, but then we saw that index lose ground in July. While the weakening is likely due to the lack of an atmospheric response, the atmosphere has not looked as La Niña-like as it did in 2012: for example, the enhanced rainfall near the Maritime Continent in 2012 is absent in 2014. In other words, while the atmosphere isn’t yet acting like El Niño, at least it’s not acting like La Niña.
Also, this sort of summertime lull in warming in the east central equatorial Pacific is not unique when you look back at the more recent historical record. Several times in past years the Niño-3.4 temperature anomaly index lost ground for a time after an initial increase. For example, the events starting in 1994 and 2006 had summertime lulls, but went on to become moderate-strength El Niño events (peak SST anomaly ≥ 1ºC). It is interesting that these short-lived dips occurred in the June or July time period, which seems to imply that the Northern Hemisphere summer season might be a tough time for El Niño to develop if the event hasn’t already become more firmly rooted.
As reports have shown, this recent decrease was predicted 1-2 months ahead of time (with certain models showing hints at a warming plateau since early May 2014). This advance notice strongly implies some models saw something in the climate system that accounts for the lull.
In contrast, during 2012, once the Niño-3.4 temperature index started to decrease, many models started to anticipate that El Niño was not going to occur. Currently we are waiting to see the latest runs from many of these models, but we can examine NWS/NCEP’s CFSv2, which is run every day. Clearly, the CFSv2, unlike in 2012, is not favoring a bust at this point. Though some members (thin lines) suggest that outcome, so it cannot be ruled out either.
In summary, we continue to favor the emergence of El Niño in the coming months, with the peak chance of emergence around 65% (i.e. there is a 35% chance of El Niño not occurring). ENSO forecasters do not expect a strong El Niño (we can’t eliminate the chance of one either), but we are not expecting El Niño to “fizzle.” In fact, just in the last week, we have started to see westerly wind anomalies pick up near the Date Line. Literally and figuratively, we may be witnessing the start of ENSO’s second wind.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Tropical weather. Easy paddle out from the cove. No one out. Rippable right wall. Set out the back.
Not impressed.
Just kidding.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Superhero
Perpetual 5th Year Senior
Been Called Mr. Y By Mr. X
