Surf Check

Well wasn't that fun. Some of the best surf I can remember in a looooooong time around here. The weekend had good weather, a SOLID SW swell, some NW to break it up, and warm water (for March) to boot. So much good surf in fact that most everywhere had good waves and spread the crowds out.

Today we still had overhead sets from the SW/NW combo, even though the peak of the SW was a couple days ago. Tomorrow the SW drops further into the chest high range but the NW hangs around and increases towards Thursday as the winds in our outer waters increase.

As the NW increases late Wednesday, some more SW should arrive on our shores from a storm off Antarctica last week. Not as big as the last swell we had, but we'll have more head high waves off the combo swells. That will last into Saturday.

We've got more NW on the charts for Monday that will give north county SD some chest high waves and south county shoulder high waves.

Models then show a small storm forming off New Zealand next week which may give us chest high waves around the 9th of April.

And models also show some NW trying to form in the Aleutians next week also which may meet up with the slow little SW set to arrive at the same time. Nothing as exciting as last weekend but at least we should have more fun surf headed our way.

As far as our weather goes, we're starting to get back on track with spring time weather- meaning more low clouds and fog as well as air temps near 70. We have a weak cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest tomorrow and as it does, it will thicken up our clouds down here. High pressure fills in quickly behind it on Thursday evening and on Friday we have sunny skies and temps back in the high 70's. That's short lived though as another weak front moves through to the north and we get more clouds and cooler temps down here this weekend.

Tides the next few days are 4.5' at sunrise, down to 0' mid-afternoon, and up to 3.5' at sunset. And our water temps are still warm- hovering around 67 degrees. That feels like July! In a nutshell for the upcoming week: normal spring time weather and surf around here.

THE Surf Report

Summer is here! And I don't like it.

SURF:
Fantastic weather we're having. Unfortunately we need the rain. I know Poseidon isn't finished with the desalination plant in Carlsbad yet, but can they build 2 or 3 more while they're at it? Might as well enjoy the 80 degree beach temperatures and 67 degree water temperatures while we're at it.

Lots of fun surf this past week is rolling right into the weekend.

We had a solid storm off Antarctica last week that is starting to build into our coastline tonight. Expect shoulder high sets from the SW tomorrow and head high waves on Saturday/Sunday.

The Pacific is in a giving mood as we also have some NW coming our way for Saturday too. Not a big swell but enough to break up the walled SW and give us overhead combo peaks. All in all some darn fun surf this weekend.

Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, 0' at lunch, and up to 3.5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Hope you're not working next week as we've got more surf coming. Charts have another storm off Antarctica today that will send us more chest high+ SW the 2nd half of next week.

AND... there's more fun NW coming too. Look for head high sets from the combo swells.

AND there's another storm forecasted to come off New Zealand later next week which would give more chest high+ SW around the 10th of April. AND the weather is supposed to be good next week. AND the water temps are in the high 60's. AND... I've run out of things to say.

WEATHER:

One more hot day on tap as Friday will hit the low 80's again at the beaches. We have a weak cold front coming through late Friday which will kick up patchy fog and drop our temps into the mid-70's this weekend, but that's about it. Weak high pressure builds in next week and we're back to sunny skies (with the usual night and morning low clouds), temps in the mid-70's during the day and mid-50's at night. And you guessed it- no rain in sight.

BEST BET:
This weekend- building SW/NW swells- a little pesky patchy fog here and there- and water temps around 67.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Don’t you just love this summer weather we’re having!  And we’re only a few days into spring! On the flip side, I really don’t want another firestorm like we had last May. So in all honesty, I hate this weather! Of note, the record highest average temperature for the month of March in San Diego was set at 64.3 degrees back in 1978. This month so far has been at 66.1. Looks like another record breaking month. And don't even get me started on our water temps. The middle of winter is usually 55 degrees around here but we never dipped below 60. And at the end of March, we should be at 59 degrees; of course we're teetering on 67 today- about 8 degrees warmer than usual. So what’s the latest prognosis on our long term outlook? The El Nino finally arrived to the party late, so will get any more rain? Will it stay hot like this forever? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just came out with their 3 month outlook and it’s not the rosiest picture they’re painting…

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding in part because of heavy snow pack coupled with possible spring rain. Meanwhile, widespread drought conditions are expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon this spring as the dry season begins.

“Periods of record warmth in the West and not enough precipitation during the rainy season cut short drought-relief in California this winter and prospects for above average temperatures this spring may make the situation worse,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA’s Spring Outlook identifies areas at risk of spring flooding and expectations for temperature, precipitation and drought from April through June. The Spring Outlook provides emergency managers, water managers, state and local officials, and the public with valuable information so they will be prepared to take action to protect life and property.

Drought is expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon through June with the onset of the dry season in April. Drought is also forecast to develop in remaining areas of Oregon and western Washington. Drought is also likely to continue in parts of the southern Plains.

El Niño finally arrived in February, but forecasters say it’s too weak and too late in the rainy season to provide much relief for California which will soon reach its fourth year in drought. The official El Nino outlook states that there is approximately a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will continue through summer 2015. If El Nino conditions persist through summer, it is historically likely that conditions will persist into the following winter. (So maybe a chance we’ll get a real El Nino winter finally? Like drenching rains, wind, and big surf? Please?). El Nino impacts are generally most significant to the climate variability of North America during the cold seasons (i.e. we mainly feel it’s impacts in the winter time around here BUT… we may see an increase in tropical storm activity off Baja like we did last summer AND see more monsoon rains in the desert southwest AND less fog around here due to the warmer waters AND warmer water means wearing trunks earlier in the season).

Forecasters say drought improvement or removal is favored for some areas in the Southwest (most likely due to an early start to the monsoon season), southern Rockies, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast while drought development is more likely in parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes where recent dryness and an outlook of favored below average precipitation exist.

Current water supply forecasts and outlooks in the western U.S. range from near normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Upper Colorado, to, much below normal in California, the southern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin.

If the drought persists as predicted in the Far West, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops due to low reservoir levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures. More information about drought can be found at www.drought.gov.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Above-average temperatures are favored this spring across the Far West, northern Rockies, and northern Plains eastward to include parts of the western Great Lakes, and for all of Alaska. Below normal temperatures are most likely this spring for Texas and nearby areas of New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

For precipitation, odds favor drier than average conditions for parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, western Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Above average precipitation is most likely for parts of the Southwest, southern and central Rockies, Texas, Southeast, and east central Alaska. Hawaii is favored to be warmer than average with eastern areas most likely wetter than average this spring.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Ever notice the uncanny similarities between surfing and golf? They're both in beautiful surroundings. It's fun to join your friends and heckle each other. You definitely don't want to be doing either during an electrical storm. And it's best to break out the big stick on the large ones. For those reasons, the North County Board Meeting group of business professionals is having their 1st annual golf tournament at Goat Hill Park in Oceanside Friday, April 17th and you're invited. Part of the proceeds will benefit TERi, 'Changing the way the world views and helps children and adults touched by special needs'. To find out how to play, or even sponsor a hole, check out the blog below.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Offshores are rad! Unless they look like this.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Intrepid
Still Have A Perfect Bracket
Scored the Covers of Breakout, Beach Happy, and Water Magazine This Month

Surfing + Golf = Good Cause

I wasn't a big fan of golf as a kid. A bunch of old guys going slow at a stuffy country club. I was into new wave, surfing, and moving fast. That stayed that way until I won a set of clubs at a holiday party about 20 years ago. I was headed to Tahoe later that summer and since I was landlocked for a week, I thought I would give it a try with a few buddies. Of course I hacked the ball all over the place but deep down inside, I actually liked it. Gasp. What could I have possibly liked?

Well, for starters, it's a lot like surfing when you strip it down to the basics. The appeal of surfing is being surrounded by nature in a beautiful setting. For golf, ditto. It's also great to paddle out with your buddies and heckle each other when you bog a turn. For golf, ditto. Doing a big cutback or blowing your fins out the back would be like hitting a long drive or draining a 20 foot putt. And having a board quiver in your garage is akin to having some fresh clubs in your golf bag. The only real difference between the two is that you can have a cold beer on the golf course. Need to figure that one out for surfing. Maybe we can outfit the back of jetskis with coolers? Anyway, I'm getting away from the big picture here.

As you may or may not know, I'm involved with a group called the North County Board Meeting. The purpose is to get business people together to network, grow local business, give back to the community, and most importantly, surf. All kidding aside, the most important thing is to give back. We've been fortunate to call north county San Diego home and there's no other place I'd rather be. So now it's time for me to give back.

The North County Board Meeting is having their 1st annual golf tournament on Friday, April 17th and we'd like you to join us in supporting TERi, a facility in Oceanside which is 'Changing the way the world views and helps children and adults touched by special needs'. They do incredible work at TERi in helping people every day through programs such as art, sports, music, and many other activities. But they need our- and your- help. That's where the golf tournament comes in.

For just $60, you get to spend a Friday afternoon away from the office, meet up with friends, and did I mention lunch was included? Part of the proceeds will support TERi and we have even have hole sponsorships if you'd like to help further. Or maybe donate a raffle prize. Or maybe just have a cold one. Regardless, it's for a good cause, and I wasn't much of a fan of working on Fridays anyway. We're having it at Goat Hill Park in Oceanside on Friday, April 17th. For those of you not familiar with Goat Hill, it's a former city golf course that was given new life by local John Ashworth (for you golf fans, yes that's Ashworth of Ashworth/Linksoul golf apparel fame. Or for you surfers, it's Ashworth who also did Quiksilver's Fidra apparel line. Now you're starting to see the golf/surf connection here...). We only have a few spots left to play as well as a couple hole sponsorships left, so if you'd like to be part of this worthy endeavor, check out the flier at the top of this story or reach out to northcountysurf@cox.net for more information.

Thank you for your support.

THE Surf Report

Spring = Solid SW Swells & Santa Anas

SURF:

Another fun week of surf has passed and good weather to boot. Again. Today we have leftover NW/SW swells for chest high sets. Tomorrow it drops a foot and on Sunday we're down to waist high swell and good weather. Again. Could be worse I guess.

Water temps are an unbelievably warm (stop me if you've heard this before) 64 degrees and tides the next few days are 3' at sunrise, up to 5.5' mid-morning, down to -1' late afternoon, and up slightly to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Now that we've gotten the weekend out of the way, next week is shaping up to be a doozy. Former tropical cyclone Pam sent some firing surf into the Gold Coast of Australia last week (right after the Quik Pro finished- typical) and turned extra tropical as it roared into seas above Antarctica. We should start to see some good SW swell arrive late Monday and peak with head high sets on Tuesday.

Even though the 1st day of spring is today, the Aleutians haven't turned off their swell making ability yet and we'll also get a NW swell filling in for waist high+ waves on Monday. Combo swell people!

Former cyclone Pam keeps chugging along and as it does, models show it growing in strength just before it slams into South America. As it does, it will send an overhead+ SW swell our way towards next weekend with the swell peaking on Monday the 30th.

AND... charts show another NW swell headed our way on the 28th. Nothing big, but enough to cross up that solid SW swell. Oh- did I mention we maybe will get a Santa Ana event too next weekend? (more on that below). So basically sit tight this weekend and get ready to rock next week.

WEATHER:

Looks like we're due for typical spring weather this weekend with night/morning low clouds/fog and temps around 70 during the day and 50 at night. No rain and no Santa Ana's. That lasts until about Wednesday then we have a weak trough on the charts which will kick up the low clouds a little more. Then by Friday... BAM! Another Santa Ana event is set for the weekend and temps back to the mid-80's. I don't think we'll ever see rain again for as along as I live. Combine that with the solid SW swell and touch of NW and you've got an epic weekend of surf lining up next weekend. Knock on wood.

BEST BET:
Spoiler alert! I just mentioned it above.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The only good thing about this dud of an El Nino is the warmer water. And even that’s up for debate as reported by various media outlets this past week as the warmer water seems to be stranding sea lion pups. Not good. You may have noticed the phenomenon lately on local beaches- lots of pups cruising the lineups or beaching themselves at your local break. I’ve seen 4 alone the past 2 weeks. So what’s the scoop? Here’s the latest from the Associated Press:

LONG BEACH, Calif. -- More than 1,800 starving sea lion pups have washed up on California beaches since Jan. 1 and 750 are being treated in rescue centers across the state, according to updated numbers released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Scientists with the federal agency believe the crisis hasn't reached its peak and sea lions could continue to arrive on beaches sick and starving for at least two more months.

Here are a few things to know about the sea lion crisis unfolding in California:

Why are they starving?
Waters off North America's Pacific Coast are about 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average. That could be pushing the fish that sea lions eat - sardines, market squid and anchovies, for example - further north. The majority of sea lions give birth in rookeries on the Channel Islands off the Southern California coast and mothers are leaving their pups alone for up to eight days at a time as they are forced to travel further in search of food. The pups aren't eating as much or as frequently and they are weaning themselves early out of desperation and striking out on their own even though they are underweight and can't hunt properly.

Why is the water so warm?
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say an El Nino weather pattern is to blame. North winds, which stir up the coastal waters in the spring and bring colder, nutrient-rich swells to the surface, are just now starting to materialize off California and might bring some relief over time. The warming off California is likely the result of regional weather patterns rather than a direct effect of global warming, said Nate Mantua, a NOAA research scientist based in Santa Cruz, California.

Has this happened before?
Yes. In 1998, a strong El Nino weather pattern led to significant warming in Pacific coastal waters and 2,500 sea lion pups were found washed up on California beaches. A large number also washed ashore in 2013. Current numbers are on track to surpass the 1998 record but have not done so yet, said Justin Viezbicke, coordinator for NOAA's California Stranding Network.
Will this hurt the sea lion population?

It's unclear. This year's crisis probably won't have any immediate effect but several years of such big losses could reduce the sea lion population in the future. Currently, there are about 300,000 sea lions and the numbers of dead pups represents less than 1 percent of the total population, said Viezbicke. The number of pups born each year in the past few years is also much greater than during previous episodes of coastal warming in the 1990s.

What happens to the sea lions that are rescued?
Many of the sea lion pups are beyond help by the time they are reported to authorities. Some die at the rescue centers and others are euthanized. Those that do survive are tube-fed until they regain their strength and then released back into the wild. NOAA doesn't have a tally of how many have been successfully treated and released. The ones being released are tagged with a number but placing satellite trackers on all of them is too costly so scientists aren't sure how many are making it.

How can we help?
People who live in California can volunteer at a rescue center. Most centers are now running at full capacity and aren't able to take many new sea lion pups in but they still need extra hands. Another alternative is to donate money. A map showing the marine rescue centers helping sea lions, along with contact information, can be found here.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Couple new stories on the blog: One is the latest addition to the coffee explosion in Encinitas. Not really an explosion but a growth- that doesn't sound right either. Anyway... make sure to visit the latest hangout in Leucadia; French Corner. Fantastic food and damn good coffee to boot.

Other new story on the blog is the debate of PU vs. EPS blanks. Our friends at SUPERbrand help settle the score. Who wins? Find out on the North County Surf blog at http://www.northcountysurf.blogspot.com/!
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just another empty flawless wave in the middle of nowhere. Makes you kind of wish you were Tom Hanks in Cast Away.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Iceman
Gets the Winner of Pacquiao/Mayweather
Duck Dives So Smooth They're Called Swan Dives

North County Business News: The World Is SUPER. And so are EPS boards.

Ever wonder what the fuss is about on old school Polyurethane (i.e. PU) blanks vs. new school Extruded Polystyrene (i.e. EPS) blanks? Thanks to Grubby Clark  moving to Mars a few years ago, alternate materials to PU were finally noticed. You've probably heard about the East Coast guys raving about EPS boards in small surf (I think that's all Slater rides now on tour- or it sure seems that way). But what's the difference? Surfers Village did a little snooping around with my friends over at SUPERbrand and reported below on their findings…

'Having recently found a magic board—i.e., one that works in a majority of conditions and responds to my average surfing abilities—I immediately became depressed. It’s a board that works without having to think about where to put my feet, a board that’s fast, loose and paddles great. However, after you find THE ONE, it’s all downhill. Isn’t it?

Sure, you can surf it and be stoked, but what I’ve found is that with each session a little piece of my magic board is lost. And by that I mean to say: in six months this magic polyurethane board creased in two places, had a fin box busted out, and two inches of the nose broken off. Why? Because I’m having a great, reckless, fast, dangerous time surfing it—the way surfing a magic board should be.

So for this test we decided to replicate the magic board in a different, stronger construction to see how it compared. Full disclosure: This is not a truly scientific study.  To do that we’d need a wave pool.  Or at least a consistent wave. So we came as close as we could, in a variety of California conditions.

We tried the exact same computer-shaped model in an eps core with directional-glass-over-eps construction. The board, a SUPERbrand 5’10” Unit, is offered in what they call Superflex. There are a few versions of directional-glass-over-eps construction out there with Futureflex by Haydenshapes being the most popular.

Here is a breakdown of the differences in construction:

The Blanks

Magic Board #1.) Polyurethane: The very same material construction surfboard makers have been using for around 60 years—polyurethane foam with a wood stringer running down the center.

“All of the structural support is in the 0 and 90 degree directions (parallel and perpendicular to the stringer)” says Superbrand's Jason Koons. “The results are somewhat predictable, but with fluctuations in foam density and stringer grain the results for two boards shaped exactly the same can vary to a frustrating degree at the highest level of surfing.”

Board #2.) EPS: Koons claims the stringer-less eps core blanks are super predictable in flex and yield nearly the exact same results every time between two blanks. “Because the core has a consistent density from board to board and the multilayered glassing schedule is multidirectional we get a light predictable controlled product,” he added.

Glassing

1.) Polyurethane: The magic PU board is glassed with one layer of fiberglass S-cloth on the bottom and two layers on the top and set with polyester resin.

2.) Superflex: Glassed with a layer of glass that has additional strands following the nose-to-tail direction called Warp glass. Think of it as going with the grain in wood instead of against it. Then they add Vectornet (the net-looking stuff on the bottom) which adds strength and controls flex further.

“The Vectornet used on the bottom is an engineering trick to add a bit of spring to the board,” says Koons. “The material used to make the Vectornet has very little structural value. The Vectornet frays a bit during application so to keep it looking clean we spray the rails of the blank black,” he adds.

The deck then gets glassed with regular glass and Warp glass.

What We Discovered:

The  directional-glass-over-eps construction is much more durable. We dropped it on the sidewalk, paddled over a rock in the lineup and pulled into some thumping closeouts. The board received not a scratch.

Setting the two boards side-by-side then weighing them on a digital scale, we found their weights to be almost identical - 6 pounds 13 ounces for the PU and 6 pounds 10 ounces for the Superflex.

How did it surf?

I really liked the Superflex board. It surfed lively and well. Conversely, it did feel a tad stiffer flex-wise and didn’t quite knife through the water as well as it’s PU counterpart.  It was more prone to skip out when turning hard off the tail, more so than the PU version (we tested both boards with the exact same Futures JC1 Blackstix fins).

For fifty percent of the sessions on the Superflex board it went fine. The other sessions it didn’t have that magic ‘zing’ —especially in bumpy surf.

Of the two constructions, the Superflex paddled better and felt as though it had more float than the PU board (remember, exact same dimensions) which helped during sessions in more gutless surf.

We liked the PU board better for performance, liveliness and responsiveness. Though, had I jumped on the Superflex construction first, I might be totally satisfied with that construction, after all we are comparing it to a ‘magic board’. One thing's for certain, I did not like how fragile the PU construction feels compared to the Superflex.

For this reviewer’s performance needs, the Superflex board is a good board; the PU counterpart is a great board.

Durability:

Superflex wins

Float:

Superflex wins

Performance:

Polyurethane wins
 

Familiarity:

Polyurethane wins

Flex:

Polyurethane wins'

So that's Surfers Village take. What's my two cents? I never thought you'd ask. I've ridden both PU and EPS boards for over 30 years and the simple answer for me is PU boards have less float, so I like them in real waves as they handle the power better. If it's small, EPS is the winner as they have more buoyancy and I can ride a smaller board which is important when you're trying to do a quick turn in 2' slop. Bottom line is to round out your quiver and make sure you have an EPS board for the majority of small surf around here.

Surf Check

Been quite the interesting 'winter'. We've only got a few days left and we've had no monster surf, powerful storms, or cold water. What we have had is water temps about 6 degrees warmer than normal (we're sitting at 64 tonight), consistent playful surf, and of course a lack of rain in an El Nino year.

Today pretty much summed up our winter. Fun chest high waves from the SW with a touch of NW, clean conditions with air temps in the mid-70's, and some increasing clouds but no rain.

Speaking of those clouds, we have a weak low pressure system over us tonight that will give the mountains and foothills some showers tomorrow but nothing really for us at the coast. Once that moves through on Thursday, weak high pressure fills in behind it on Friday and we have nice weather again with night and morning low clouds and fog. Temps will be slightly cooler than they have been- just the low 70's.

Tides the next few days are 6' at sunrise, down to -1' late afternoon, and up to 3' at sunset.

Now that we've got that out of the way, today's SW will fill in further tomorrow and peak on Thursday with shoulder high sets. We also have more NW filling in for waist high+ waves. Should be a fun combo swell the 2nd half of this week.

Charts then show more NW headed our way next Tuesday for chest high waves.

Not to be outdone, former tropical cyclone Pam that roared passed Fiji a few days go, is now steamrolling above Antarctica. That storm will send us head high SW around the 24th of March.

Models show it regrouping a few days later and sending us a bigger overhead S swell towards the end of the month. The gift that keeps on giving.

So in a nutshell, more SW is headed our way through the end of March, with a touch of NW, and no rain in sight. Oh- and our water is warmer than normal- but you've known that for about a year now.