Friday, March 20, 2015

THE Surf Report


Spring = Solid SW Swells & Santa Anas

SURF:

Another fun week of surf has passed and good weather to boot. Again. Today we have leftover NW/SW swells for chest high sets. Tomorrow it drops a foot and on Sunday we're down to waist high swell and good weather. Again. Could be worse I guess.
Water temps are an unbelievably warm (stop me if you've heard this before) 64 degrees and tides the next few days are 3' at sunrise, up to 5.5' mid-morning, down to -1' late afternoon, and up slightly to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Now that we've gotten the weekend out of the way, next week is shaping up to be a doozy. Former tropical cyclone Pam sent some firing surf into the Gold Coast of Australia last week (right after the Quik Pro finished- typical) and turned extra tropical as it roared into seas above Antarctica. We should start to see some good SW swell arrive late Monday and peak with head high sets on Tuesday.
Even though the 1st day of spring is today, the Aleutians haven't turned off their swell making ability yet and we'll also get a NW swell filling in for waist high+ waves on Monday. Combo swell people!
Former cyclone Pam keeps chugging along and as it does, models show it growing in strength just before it slams into South America. As it does, it will send an overhead+ SW swell our way towards next weekend with the swell peaking on Monday the 30th.
AND... charts show another NW swell headed our way on the 28th. Nothing big, but enough to cross up that solid SW swell. Oh- did I mention we maybe will get a Santa Ana event too next weekend? (more on that below). So basically sit tight this weekend and get ready to rock next week.

WEATHER:

Looks like we're due for typical spring weather this weekend with night/morning low clouds/fog and temps around 70 during the day and 50 at night. No rain and no Santa Ana's. That lasts until about Wednesday then we have a weak trough on the charts which will kick up the low clouds a little more. Then by Friday... BAM! Another Santa Ana event is set for the weekend and temps back to the mid-80's. I don't think we'll ever see rain again for as along as I live. Combine that with the solid SW swell and touch of NW and you've got an epic weekend of surf lining up next weekend. Knock on wood.

BEST BET:
Spoiler alert! I just mentioned it above.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The only good thing about this dud of an El Nino is the warmer water. And even that’s up for debate as reported by various media outlets this past week as the warmer water seems to be stranding sea lion pups. Not good. You may have noticed the phenomenon lately on local beaches- lots of pups cruising the lineups or beaching themselves at your local break. I’ve seen 4 alone the past 2 weeks. So what’s the scoop? Here’s the latest from the Associated Press:

LONG BEACH, Calif. -- More than 1,800 starving sea lion pups have washed up on California beaches since Jan. 1 and 750 are being treated in rescue centers across the state, according to updated numbers released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Scientists with the federal agency believe the crisis hasn't reached its peak and sea lions could continue to arrive on beaches sick and starving for at least two more months.

Here are a few things to know about the sea lion crisis unfolding in California:

Why are they starving?
Waters off North America's Pacific Coast are about 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average. That could be pushing the fish that sea lions eat - sardines, market squid and anchovies, for example - further north. The majority of sea lions give birth in rookeries on the Channel Islands off the Southern California coast and mothers are leaving their pups alone for up to eight days at a time as they are forced to travel further in search of food. The pups aren't eating as much or as frequently and they are weaning themselves early out of desperation and striking out on their own even though they are underweight and can't hunt properly.

Why is the water so warm?
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say an El Nino weather pattern is to blame. North winds, which stir up the coastal waters in the spring and bring colder, nutrient-rich swells to the surface, are just now starting to materialize off California and might bring some relief over time. The warming off California is likely the result of regional weather patterns rather than a direct effect of global warming, said Nate Mantua, a NOAA research scientist based in Santa Cruz, California.

Has this happened before?
Yes. In 1998, a strong El Nino weather pattern led to significant warming in Pacific coastal waters and 2,500 sea lion pups were found washed up on California beaches. A large number also washed ashore in 2013. Current numbers are on track to surpass the 1998 record but have not done so yet, said Justin Viezbicke, coordinator for NOAA's California Stranding Network.
Will this hurt the sea lion population?

It's unclear. This year's crisis probably won't have any immediate effect but several years of such big losses could reduce the sea lion population in the future. Currently, there are about 300,000 sea lions and the numbers of dead pups represents less than 1 percent of the total population, said Viezbicke. The number of pups born each year in the past few years is also much greater than during previous episodes of coastal warming in the 1990s.

What happens to the sea lions that are rescued?
Many of the sea lion pups are beyond help by the time they are reported to authorities. Some die at the rescue centers and others are euthanized. Those that do survive are tube-fed until they regain their strength and then released back into the wild. NOAA doesn't have a tally of how many have been successfully treated and released. The ones being released are tagged with a number but placing satellite trackers on all of them is too costly so scientists aren't sure how many are making it.

How can we help?
People who live in California can volunteer at a rescue center. Most centers are now running at full capacity and aren't able to take many new sea lion pups in but they still need extra hands. Another alternative is to donate money. A map showing the marine rescue centers helping sea lions, along with contact information, can be found here.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Couple new stories on the blog: One is the latest addition to the coffee explosion in Encinitas. Not really an explosion but a growth- that doesn't sound right either. Anyway... make sure to visit the latest hangout in Leucadia; French Corner. Fantastic food and damn good coffee to boot.
Other new story on the blog is the debate of PU vs. EPS blanks. Our friends at SUPERbrand help settle the score. Who wins? Find out on the North County Surf blog at http://www.northcountysurf.blogspot.com/!
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just another empty flawless wave in the middle of nowhere. Makes you kind of wish you were Tom Hanks in Cast Away.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Iceman
Gets the Winner of Pacquiao/Mayweather
Duck Dives So Smooth They're Called Swan Dives