El Nino, is that you?
SURF:
Weather finally cleaned up and we had some good SW swell this week. A little lined up but best spots were head high with the OC going overhead. Today we had leftover SW swell and tomorrow it drops further with just chest high sets. This weekend looks small unfortunately as there isn't much SW or NW around but the weather will be fantastic (more on that below). Water temps have dipped slightly due to last weekend's storm but they're still holding at 60 degrees.
Tides the next few days are 3' at sunrise, up to 5' mid-morning, down to 0' mid-afternoon, and up slightly to 1.5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at
Twitter/North County Surf.FORECAST:
After a slow weekend of surf, Monday and Tuesday don't look much better.
There's a storm though off Antarctica tonight that will give us a small but fun S swell the middle of next week.
We also have a small storm headed our way (more on that below) that should give us a shot of NW windswell on Wednesday too. The combo swell mid-week would be fun but... it may be junky due to the S wind and showers. Nothing major but just enough to screw things up. After that we may get some good NW groundswell next weekend and better weather.
WEATHER:
Not much of a storm last weekend as the wind really never got above 20mph and the 8' stormsurf didn't materialize, but man did we get a lot of rain in SD. The brunt of the clouds moved ashore in North County San Diego on Sunday and close to 2" fell in Carlsbad and 1.5" in Encinitas. Points N and S received around an inch. We've got the opposite this weekend as high pressure is setting up shop and warm 'Santa Ana' offshore winds will develop in the hills. The coast tomorrow morning could see some gusts around 20mph but the real wind will be around 50mph in the passes and canyons of E county. Air temps all weekend will hover in the mid-70's and the nights will be crisp, cool, and clear. High pressure starts to break down on Monday and the low clouds return. Models then hint at some showers towards Wednesday/Thursday but nothing like we had recently.
BEST BET:
Some leftover S swell tomorrow or maybe that combo small SW/NW on Wednesday but... you may have to deal with some S winds, clouds, and showers.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As mentioned above, we got a good soaking last weekend even though it wasn't a typical 'El Nino' storm. No matter, we needed it. So where do we stand for rain so far this season after the recent deluge? Well...
-Newport has 5.74" of rain so far this season. Only 54% of normal.
-Oceanside has 5.88" of rain so far this season. Only 57% of normal.
-San Diego has 6.50" of rain so far this season. Only 84% of normal.
Even though we're not 100% of normal, it's not as bad as last year if you'll remember. At this point in time last year, we had:
-Newport: 3.20" of rain. Only 30% of normal.
-Oceanside: 3.82" of rain. Only 37% of normal.
-San Diego: 4.45" of rain. Only 58% of normal.
So the full-blown El Nino didn't arrive this winter, we're at least doing better than 2014. On that note, we're only 16 days away from spring, so you can pretty much write off seeing a real El Nino this winter with 50' surf and 20" of rain. That's the bad news. The good news is that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued today an 'El Nino Advisory', meaning... wait for it... El Nino is here! Sure, the party's over, but it's better late than never. So what does all this mean? Well, it should help to continue sending storms our way this spring, even though they'll be weak. So that's another chance to add rain to our totals. The El Nino is also expected to last through summer, meaning... wait for it... our waters should stay warmer than usual the next 6 months. So trunks will be the call again the majority of summer and hurricanes may be more frequent. At least the El Nino is didn't give up on us.
On a side note, don't forget to set your clocks ahead 1 hour this Saturday night as it's Daylight Saving Time again. Meaning... wait for it... You can surf after work or school until 7pm. On the flip side, the sun won't come up until 7am so forget the dawn patrols before work and school.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
After I took this pic, I saw Bigfoot sitting on the beach, fishing for Orcas. Unfortunately I was out of film and the local 1 Hour Photo was out of 35mm film...
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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