Summer is here! And I don't like it.
SURF:
Fantastic weather we're having. Unfortunately we need the rain. I know Poseidon isn't finished with the desalination plant in Carlsbad yet, but can they build 2 or 3 more while they're at it? Might as well enjoy the 80 degree beach temperatures and 67 degree water temperatures while we're at it.
FORECAST:
WEATHER:
One more hot day on tap as Friday will hit the low 80's again at the beaches. We have a weak cold front coming through late Friday which will kick up patchy fog and drop our temps into the mid-70's this weekend, but that's about it. Weak high pressure builds in next week and we're back to sunny skies (with the usual night and morning low clouds), temps in the mid-70's during the day and mid-50's at night. And you guessed it- no rain in sight.
BEST BET:
This weekend- building SW/NW swells- a little pesky patchy fog here and there- and water temps around 67.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding in part because of heavy snow pack coupled with possible spring rain. Meanwhile, widespread drought conditions are expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon this spring as the dry season begins.
“Periods of record warmth in the West and not enough precipitation during the rainy season cut short drought-relief in California this winter and prospects for above average temperatures this spring may make the situation worse,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA’s Spring Outlook identifies areas at risk of spring flooding and expectations for temperature, precipitation and drought from April through June. The Spring Outlook provides emergency managers, water managers, state and local officials, and the public with valuable information so they will be prepared to take action to protect life and property.
Drought is expected to persist in California, Nevada, and Oregon through June with the onset of the dry season in April. Drought is also forecast to develop in remaining areas of Oregon and western Washington. Drought is also likely to continue in parts of the southern Plains.
El Niño finally arrived in February, but forecasters say it’s too weak and too late in the rainy season to provide much relief for California which will soon reach its fourth year in drought. The official El Nino outlook states that there is approximately a 50% chance that El Nino conditions will continue through summer 2015. If El Nino conditions persist through summer, it is historically likely that conditions will persist into the following winter. (So maybe a chance we’ll get a real El Nino winter finally? Like drenching rains, wind, and big surf? Please?). El Nino impacts are generally most significant to the climate variability of North America during the cold seasons (i.e. we mainly feel it’s impacts in the winter time around here BUT… we may see an increase in tropical storm activity off Baja like we did last summer AND see more monsoon rains in the desert southwest AND less fog around here due to the warmer waters AND warmer water means wearing trunks earlier in the season).
Forecasters say drought improvement or removal is favored for some areas in the Southwest (most likely due to an early start to the monsoon season), southern Rockies, southern Plains, and Gulf Coast while drought development is more likely in parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes where recent dryness and an outlook of favored below average precipitation exist.
Current water supply forecasts and outlooks in the western U.S. range from near normal in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and Upper Colorado, to, much below normal in California, the southern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin.
If the drought persists as predicted in the Far West, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops due to low reservoir levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures. More information about drought can be found at www.drought.gov.
Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
Above-average temperatures are favored this spring across the Far West, northern Rockies, and northern Plains eastward to include parts of the western Great Lakes, and for all of Alaska. Below normal temperatures are most likely this spring for Texas and nearby areas of New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
For precipitation, odds favor drier than average conditions for parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, western Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Above average precipitation is most likely for parts of the Southwest, southern and central Rockies, Texas, Southeast, and east central Alaska. Hawaii is favored to be warmer than average with eastern areas most likely wetter than average this spring.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Ever notice the uncanny similarities between surfing and golf? They're both in beautiful surroundings. It's fun to join your friends and heckle each other. You definitely don't want to be doing either during an electrical storm. And it's best to break out the big stick on the large ones. For those reasons, the North County Board Meeting group of business professionals is having their 1st annual golf tournament at Goat Hill Park in Oceanside Friday, April 17th and you're invited. Part of the proceeds will benefit TERi, 'Changing the way the world views and helps children and adults touched by special needs'. To find out how to play, or even sponsor a hole, check out the blog below.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Offshores are rad! Unless they look like this.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Intrepid
Still Have A Perfect Bracket
Scored the Covers of Breakout, Beach Happy, and Water Magazine This Month
