THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Summer is here!

SURF:
Or it least it feels that way. June Gloom, southern hemi swells, crowded line ups, and water temps in the mid-60's. Right on track. Last year's El Nino fooled everyone to thinking we live in the tropics- but this is a REAL southern California summer.

Had lots of good SW swell this past week. Most spots were overhead and it was fairly walled. The swell peaked Wednesday night but we'll still have head high sets on Friday. Saturday looks to have shoulder high sets and Sunday just chest high.

Water temps are 65 and tides the next few days are 1' at sunrise, up to 4' mid-morning, down to 1' again mid-afternoon, and close to a brutal 7' at sunset.

FORECAST:

After the SW backs off this weekend, there isn't much to talk about during the work week.

By next Thursday though, models show a healthy NW windswell developing which would give SD head high sets and chest high waves in north county by Friday.

Things get interesting though next weekend as forecast charts show a big SW headed our way again and maybe our first tropical swell? (Agatha). Both swells could give us overhead SW towards next Saturday into early next week.

WEATHER:

Inland bakes as the coast is cloudy. Maybe. Models are confident the inland valleys will be in the mid-90's this weekend (while Death Valley approaches 115) but the strong high pressure may trap the marine layer at the coast. Worst case is we have some patchy fog lingering at the coast this weekend with the sun peeking through here and there. Best case is the low clouds completely erode and the beaches are basking in sunshine. I guess we won't know until the weekend! Next week high pressure backs off and the normal night/morning low clouds/fog return. Make sure to keep up to date on the weather this weekend at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Tomorrow before the swell completely fades away or next Saturday as new SW builds with lingering NW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Due to the El Nino last year (I swear this is the last time I'll mention the El Nino- or at least until 2030 when the next when arrives), we already had 2 major hurricanes by early June. Not tropical storms mind you- major hurricanes Andres and Blanca with peak winds of 145 MPH. This year, zilch. But as we transition to La Nina, that can be expected. So what can we expect for hurricanes this summer? NOAA has released their 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane outlook and they say:

The forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 30 percent chance of a below-normal season. Basically that means we'll have a normal hurricane season- nothing like last year's barn-burner. The 2016 outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 13-20 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3-6 major hurricanes. If you read the North County Surf Blog a couple weeks ago, I guessed we would have 15 named storms, 8 being hurricanes, and maybe 4 being category 3 or bigger. So we look to be on track. For comparison's sake, the bomb 2015 dropped was 18 named storms of which 13 became hurricanes and a whopping 9 were major hurricanes. (Major hurricanes are classified as Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale; 111 mph+ winds). So without further ado, here's the official list of names for 2016:

Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

That is one crazy list of names. Can't wait for Zeke though.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

How tired would your legs be driving through those left barrels?! That's what Red Bull is for, right?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Righteous
92.1% Career Free Throw Percentage
Bribing NOAA to Add Michael to Their Hurricane List