Beautiful weather we’re having.
SURF:
Winter seems to be over and we’ve started the slow crawl to
summer. The past week had some small NW/SW for waist high sets at best and
plenty of NW winds to make our water chilly. This weekend doesn’t offer much
except more tiny SW swell for knee high+ waves. The OC will see a couple waist
high waves. Our drought (waves and weather) continues!
Water temps are hovering
in the 57 degree range and tides this weekend are 2’ at sunrise, up to 5’
mid-morning, down to 0’ late afternoon and up again slightly to 2’ at sunset. Make
sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
No big storms on the horizon but we do have a couple little
wave makers for Tuesday. A small storm off the Aleutians today will send a
waist high+ WNW our way for Tuesday afternoon. There was also solid storm off
Antarctica a few days ago (that was aimed more at South America than us) but we’ll
get a glancing blow for chest high waves from the S starting on Tuesday and
rolling into Wednesday. Add both swells up and we may see a shoulder high set
around here. Hooray! The OC should be about a foot bigger due to the extreme S
angle.
After that models show a little waist high NW potentially towards the 7th
and another shot of chest high SW around the 12th of April. And if
you’re keeping score, it is now week 9 of my brand new step-up sitting in the
garage, just waiting for overhead waves. Whimper.
WEATHER:
Pretty mellow weather for the next week or so. We’ll have
sunny skies tomorrow with temps in the low 70’s at the beaches. A weak cold
front moves by to the N over the weekend which will deepen our marine layer and
cool us down to the mid-60’s. After that high pressure returns for temps in the
low 70’s next week. And then… another weak front is forecasted to move by to
the N again next weekend for more clouds and cooler temps. All in all- typical
spring weather and no rain for the foreseeable future.
BEST BET:
Tuesday/Wednesday with combo swell and nice weather. If you
plan any board meetings that day, make sure it’s in the water.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
This week is Tsunami Awareness Week. Oddly enough as I write
this, a 7.2 quake struck off the coast of Papua New Guinea (NE of Australia).
While there is no threat at this time for Hawaii and California, I find the
coincidence eerie. (And if you didn’t know, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit the
country’s highland region on February 26th, triggering powerful aftershocks.
The earthquake killed at least 67 people and left 500 others injured. Then one
week later, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck the country again and killed at
least 18 more people. After the second earthquake, the International Red Cross
said that as many as 143,000 people could have been affected by the disaster
and 17,000 people have been displaced from their homes, Reuters reported). That’s
3 earthquakes all within a month between magnitude 6.7 to 7.2. Yikes. My
thoughts go out to the residents of Papua New Guinea.
So now that I have your attention, let’s get back to the
task at hand- understanding tsunamis during Tsunami Awareness Week with the help
of our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
Risks:
Tsunamis are among the most infrequent of Earth's natural
hazards. Each year, there are approximately two tsunamis that cause damage near
their source. Tsunamis that cause damage or deaths on distant shores (more than
620 miles away) occur about twice per decade. Tsunamis can strike any U.S.
coast, but the risk is greatest for states and territories with Pacific and
Caribbean coastlines. Low-lying coastal areas such as beaches, bays, lagoons,
harbors and river mouths and areas along rivers and streams that lead to the
ocean are the most vulnerable. Tsunamis can wrap around headlands, islands and
sand spits, so coasts facing away from the tsunami source may also be at risk. Tsunamis
are often referred to as local or distant. The type of tsunami depends on the
location of the source of the tsunami and where it may strike land. The source
of a local tsunami is close to the coast and may arrive in less than one hour.
The danger is greatest for local tsunamis because warning time is limited. A
distant tsunami is generated far away from a coast, so there is more time to
issue and respond to warnings.
Characteristics:
Not all tsunamis act the same. And, an individual tsunami
may impact coasts differently. A small tsunami in one place may be very large a
few miles away. The speed of a tsunami depends on the depth of the ocean. In
the deep ocean, tsunamis are barely noticeable but can move as fast as a jet
plane, over 500 mph. As the waves enter shallow water near land, they slow to
approximately 20 or 30 mph. That is still faster than a person can run. As the
waves slow down, they can grow in height and currents intensify. Most tsunamis
are less than 10 feet high, but in extreme cases, can exceed 100 feet. When a
tsunami comes ashore, it will not look like a normal wind wave. It may look
like a fast-rising flood or a wall of water. Sometimes, before the water rushes
on land, it will drain away suddenly, showing the ocean floor, reefs and fish
like a very low, low tide. Tsunamis can travel up rivers and streams that lead
to the ocean. A large tsunami can flood low-lying coastal areas more than a
mile inland. The series of waves that flood, drain away and then re-flood the
land may last for hours. The time between waves ranges from five minutes to two
hours. The first wave to reach the shore may not be the largest or the most
damaging. It is not possible to predict how long a tsunami will last, how many
waves there will be, or how much time there will be between waves.
Dangers:
A tsunami can be very dangerous to coastal life and
property. It can produce unusually strong currents, rapidly flood land and
cause great destruction. The flow and force of the water and the debris it
carries can destroy boats, vehicles, and buildings and other structures; cause
injuries; and take lives as the tsunami moves across the land. It only takes
six inches of fast-moving water to knock over an adult and two feet of
fast-moving water to carry away most vehicles. The water can be just as
threatening (if not more so) as it returns to the sea, taking debris and people
with it. Flooding and dangerous currents can last for days. Even small tsunamis
can pose a risk. Strong currents can injure and drown swimmers and damage and
destroy boats in harbors. And be aware, a tsunami is not surf-able. Tsunamis
are not like wind waves. They do not have a face, do not curl and break like
wind waves and are full of hazardous debris.
As far as the most astonishing tsunamis in history, here’s
some facts:
- 1755: 8.5 earthquake. Lisbon, Portugal. 50,000 deaths
- 1883: Volcanic eruption. Krakatau, Indonesia. 34,417 deaths
- 1958: 7.8 earthquake. Southeast Alaska. Highest tsunami; maximum height of 1,720 feet
- 1964: 9.2 earthquake. Alaska. $851 million in damage. Costliest US tsunami on record.
- 2004: 9.1 earthquake. Sumatra, Indonesia. 227,899 deaths and $13 billion in damage. Deadliest tsunami on record.
- 2009: 8.1 earthquake. American Samoa Islands. $143 million in damage
- 2011: 9.1 earthquake. Honshu, Japan. 18,453 deaths and $243 billion in damage. Costliest tsunami on record.
So if you’re at the beach and think you feel an earthquake
or see the water receding- get to higher ground!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
One of the scariest photos I’ve ever seen. Below sea level, big,
victory at sea, rocky, and if it didn’t need any more help in making it
ominous, it’s in black and white. Sheesh.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Heavyweight
Still Have A Perfect Bracket!
The Sultan of Surf Forecasting
