Really?
SURF:
Ok- don't be hatin'- but here goes: Got a new board earlier this week. It's a 5'4" groveler (SUPERbrand Tazer- sorry- shameless plug) made for knee high surf. Ask me if I've ridden it yet. Nope. Surf went DEAD flat the past few days. Typical. Remember the step-up I got for solid winter surf? Yep- the waves never went above head high for 15 straight weeks.
So I thought I'd trick Mother Nature and get a small wave board instead. No way it could go completely flat, right? Jinx! So we're on day 5 now of 'Swell Watch'. I'll let you know when I get to ride it.
Now before you go storming the castle with your pitchforks and torches, we did have a small bump in the southern hemisphere last week that should start to pick up our surf tomorrow- to the waist high range late in the day- and maybe a chest high set towards the OC on Sunday.
We also get a little boost from NW windswell late Saturday as our high pressure starts to break down, so surf around town may be fun later this weekend from the small combo swells. All in all, look for the surf to start out flat this weekend and get rideable by Sunday.
Water temps as you know are an incredible 75-79 degrees and tides this weekend are about 1.5' in the morning, up to 5' late afternoon, and down to 3' at sunset.
FORECAST:
After the little combo swell on Sunday, surf drops to the waist high range early in the week.
Charts showed a small storm flaring up off Antarctica today that should give us chest high SW late next Wednesday into Thursday.
That storm is forecasted to rebuild into a stronger system this weekend that would give us shoulder high sets around Sunday the 12th.
And if the models are right, we'll get a head high S swell from the southern hemisphere again towards the the 15th. That storm is still a few days away from forming so make sure to keep up to date on the latest conditions at Twitter/North County Surf. As far as any hurricanes go, it's been bleak lately. We have a storm trying to gain strength this afternoon between us and Hawaii- but it's headed to Hawaii. Charts show 1 or more storms taking shape about a week out- but they may be headed to Hawaii too. Hopefully they take a turn for the better.
WEATHER:
Our hot and muggy conditions will take a break this weekend as the cold front mentioned above breaks down our high pressure and the night/morning low clouds/fog return tomorrow. Our beach temps in the mid-80's will drop to the mid-70's by Saturday. Brrrrr. Sunday is a transition day then, yep, you guessed it, high pressure and the tropical moisture make a return next week for more thunderstorms in the mountains/deserts and humid conditions at the beaches with temps back to the low 80's. Why buy a ticket to Tahiti when it's in your own backyard?!
On a side note, I'm still amazed at the extremes we have in California. Take our sister cities Ocean Beach as an example- one is in San Diego and the other San Francisco. Ocean Beach San Francisco today was in the low 60's today while on the flip side, Ocean Beach San Diego was in the low 80's. There is also a 20 degree difference in the ocean temps with Ocean Beach San Francisco hitting a chilly 58 degrees and Ocean Beach San Diego- you guessed it- 78 degrees. Glad I live down here! And for you true weather aficionados- Bodie, CA in the central Sierras last night was 40 degrees while Death Valley to the south was 120 degrees during the day. A massive 80 degree difference just a few hours away. What does this all mean? Not sure really, but thanks for reading.
BEST BET:
Sunday or next Thursday with a little bump in SW swell OR... wait for bigger surf mid-month and the chance for more hurricanes?
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Our hurricane season started off with a BANG in May and now has gone eerily silent. What looked to be a banner year for hurricane surf is turning out to be pretty average. There's still hope since we're right in the middle of the season but I'm surprised how quickly the spigot was turned off- considering we had the following already:
- Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
- ------------------------------
--------------------- - TD One-E 10-11 May 35
- MH Aletta 6-11 Jun 140
- MH Bud 9-15 Jun 130
- TS Carlotta 14-18 Jun 65
- TS Daniel 24-26 Jun 45
- TS Emilia 27 Jun- 2 Jul 60
- H Fabio 30 Jun- 6 Jul 110
- TS Gilma 26-29 Jul 40
- TD Nine-E 26-27 Jul 35
- TS Hector 31 Jul- 45
Considering we've had 2 major hurricanes in early June alone, things were looking up. And then for reasons unknown, nothing of substance for almost a month. Here's a quick synopsis from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin in July was below average. Only two named storms (Fabio and Gilma) formed during the month, with Fabio becoming a hurricane. Two tropical depressions also formed during the month. Even though Tropical Depression Ten-E formed at the end of July, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Hector on August 1 (and was moving away from us resulting in no swell for southern CA). Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, three to four named storms typically form during July, with two of those becoming a hurricane and one of those reaching major hurricane intensity. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2018 is near average.
As far as water temperatures from here to Baja go, there's plenty of warm ocean to fuel hurricanes. Heck- we're even close to 80 degrees here in San Diego which is about the threshold to feed a hurricane. (And for those of you keeping score, that's 5-9 degrees above average).As mentioned in the FORECAST above, a couple hurricanes may flair up between now and the 9th, but they may be headed to Hawaii. Let's keep our fingers crossed or rub that lucky rabbit's foot or find a 4 leaf clover or pray they end up coming our way. Whatever it takes to get us back on track!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I bet my new 5'4" would work so good in those waves. Guess I'll have to wait. (sniff)
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Commander
Some People Call Me The Space Cowboy
Building a Surf Theme Park Called Shredderland With A 50' Mavericks-like Wave Pool Stocked With Great Whites
