HI comes to CA.
SURF:
Not an impressive week for surf but definitely for the water temps.
Multiple locations had readings of 80 and above- and I'm not talking about Hawaii either- I'm talking about Camp Pendleton to La Jolla. Along with the tropical clouds overhead, it made the small surf bearable.
As luck would have it, Hurricane John flared up early in the week just south of Cabo and chest high sets started showing tonight in North San Diego County and shoulder high in the OC. John unfortunately wasn't as big as originally anticipated- and he died once he hit our swell window- but we still should have shoulder high sets in far North San Diego County tomorrow and head high waves in the OC.
By Saturday John is leaving town but on Sunday we have a new pulse from the southern hemisphere for more chest high+ SW. All in all a fun weekend of surf.
Beware the tides this weekend! Look for 0' at sunrise, up to 4.5' mid-morning, down to 1' late afternoon, and up to 5.5' at sunset.
FORECAST:
The SW mentioned above on Sunday rolls into Monday for more chest high waves.
Tuesday is a transition day then we get more S swell from Antarctica late Wednesday into Thursday. Nothing big but more fun chest high surf. After that, models show the southern hemisphere taking a rest which leaves the waters off mainland Mexico and hurricane production our only source of swell for the 3rd week of August.
WEATHER:
If you haven't noticed already, it's hot. Nights, mornings, mid-days; doesn't matter. It's hot. Normally our cool ocean waters (like 70 degrees) help us cool down at night. But since the ocean has been 80 degrees lately, our nights don't cool down at all. Like San Diego; it was 77 degrees. At 4 AM. Incredible. Our weather this weekend cools slightly- mid-80's during the day and 70 at night with a few tropical clouds overhead. Early next week the late night/early morning low clouds may make a slight return and our temps may even cool to 75 late in the week (during the day- nights thankfully should be high 60's), but then models show high pressure returning by next weekend for more heat and tropical clouds. Make sure to keep up to date on the latest conditions Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Pretty much tomorrow through Thursday. Saturday and Tuesday may dip slightly but we'll have great weather and warm water regardless.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Here's news that you probably knew already (or at least figured it out on your own), but it's worth repeating. Due to our extremely warm water lately, the San Diego Union Tribune reported this week that our potential for hurricanes in San Diego is the greatest it's been in over a century. Why you ask? Well, the minimum water temperature needed for hurricane formation is 80 degrees, and we've been toying with that for the past couple weeks. Now of course you need a large area of 80 degree+ water and we've just got a small pool of it here in San Diego County, but if one forms off Baja, it would have an easier time maintaining it's strength and travelling up the coast, instead of dying once it hits our normally cooler waters. Here's what the Union Tribune had to say:
Ocean temperatures are the highest they have ever been in San Diego, scientists said. This is causing the potential of a hurricane to sweep through the area for the first time in over 160 years. Record high temperatures were first noticed at the beginning of August. Water temperature testing has been conducted at the end of Scripps Pier in La Jolla, every single day since 1916. On Wednesday, August 1, water samples showed a reading of 78.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Researchers said it broke an all-time record.
“Under these conditions, the hurricanes that form in the southeast Pacific have a higher chance of tracking more northward and potentially affecting us," Said Art Miller, Ph.D., head of the Oceans and Atmosphere Section of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Miller added the chances a hurricane would directly hit San Diego are slim, however, it could drift upwards from Baja California as the unusually warm ocean waters in the area fuel it. “As it migrates more towards the north, it has the potential to keep its dynamic structure and produce rainfall events," added Miller.
A tropical storm can be classified as having wind speeds of 39-73 miles per hour. A hurricane has wind speeds of 74 mph or greater. There has only been one hurricane in recorded history in California. It is known as the 1858 San Diego hurricane. There have been multiple tropical storms to hit San Diego. For example, in 1976, Hurricane Kathleen moved from the south into the county as a tropical storm. A year later in 1977, Hurricane Doreen was considered the worst tropical cyclone to hit California in over 30 years, causing an estimated $25 million in damage.
"Since 2014, we’ve had a lot of warming in the Pacific," said Melissa Carter, a programmer analyst with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "We also have a lot of water coming up from the south, which is warmer." Miller added the wetter and warmer weather could bring about a destructive El Niño weather pattern in 2018-2019 as well. So get that Rhino Chaser ready people!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
You've probably heard of all the famous people that have bought their own islands. Richard Branson, Johnny Depp, Marlon Brando, Nicholas Cage, Leonardo DiCaprio, Mel Gibson, and my personal favorite- Celine Dion. But do any of them surf? Of course not. If they did, they would have bought this priceless gem years ago. Lucky for you and I, it's still available. Just need to win that Powerball thing.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Out of This World
Boy Bands Are So 2000's. I'm Starting A Mid-Life Crisis Band
Best Surf Forecaster Ever!* (*According To My Mom)
