I'm activating the Emergency Boardriding System.
Tropical Depression One-E formed three weeks before the official May 15 start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. No storm on record has formed this early in the year in the basin, with reliable records here stretching back to the beginning of the satellite era in 1966, according to the National Hurricane Center.
This tropical depression took advantage of a perfect window of opportunity. A tropical wave developed broad rotation within an area of lower wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 80°F (about the minimum temp for formation). A persistent cluster of thunderstorms within the wave allowed a closed center of circulation to take root at the surface and organize the system into a tropical depression.
Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean doesn't begin until May 15. But the dates that start and end a hurricane season aren't hard cutoffs. These seasonal windows are driven by climatology; the vast majority of storms form within the six-month hurricane season, but some can and do form outside of those dates- as evident by the depression on April 25th- or the latest on December 31st, 2015! Nothing like having a tropical depression form on New Year's Eve. Crazy.
While preseason storms are rare in the eastern Pacific, it’s not terribly uncommon to see early storms over in the Atlantic Ocean. The basin's hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but the last five hurricane seasons—2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015—all saw their first named storms before June 1. That was an unprecedented stretch for early-season formation in the Atlantic, and it remains to be seen if the basin will continue this streak next month.
SURF:
As we head towards Karmantine (no red tide, beaches open, manageable winds, and good surf), let's reflect on the week that was: fun chest high combo swell, great weather, BUT... crazy red tides, and beaches open but parking lots/access not fully open. Where does that leave us for Friday and the weekend? Not much swell Friday but plenty good Saturday afternoon and beyond- so I'm activating the Emergency Boardriding System!
First, a swell was generated off Antarctica last week that is marching up the Pacific as we speak. We'll see head high sets arriving by Saturday afternoon into Sunday and bigger at the best S swell spots in far N county SD.
We also have small waist high WNW arriving this weekend too which may help break up the S lines. Hallelujah. On that note, I'm not one to preach, but do me a favor, and don't clog the line ups. Meaning: If you run down to surf and your spot is crowded, find an open spot down the beach (or come back later). Don't need our beaches closed again and a good swell gone to waste. This has been a public service announcement. As far as the weather goes this weekend, weather should be nice on Saturday (once the low clouds/fog burn off) with maybe only partial clearing on Sunday. At least it won't be windy. Let's just hope the red tide is gone by then too. As far as the sun/water temps/tides go, here's what you need to know:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 5:54 AM sunrise
- 7:37 PM sunset
- That's almost 14 hours of surfing. More than enough time for everyone to find an open window and keep the crowds down...
- Water temps in N County are high 60's thanks to the 2 heat waves we've had recently
- And tides are all over the place this weekend. Lots of spots will have an opportunity to light up:
- -1' at sunrise
- 3.5' at lunch
- 1.5' late afternoon
- 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Karmantine is in full effect next week with plenty of surf. The S swell from the weekend keeps plugging away then we get a shot of more late season WNW swell late Tuesday. Most spots will be head high to overhead on the combo swell. The only fly in the ointment is if the May Gray kicks up our S winds. Regardless, we'll have surf finally. The S will wind down by Wednesday but the WNW will hang around.
Thursday is a transition day THEN... models show a solid storm taking shape in the southern hemisphere this weekend which, according to the charts, will produce a few swells. If everything goes according to plan, we'll see more head high SW swell late next Friday the 15th and dying around Wednesday the 20th. That's a looooong time. There may also be smaller WNW too. All in all, south swell season is here.
WEATHER:
Looks like our summer time weather the past week will be replaced by May Gray for the foreseeable future. The fog returned today and will increase through Saturday. By Sunday, a large low pressure system will linger off the Pacific NW. Must be spring. Clouds could hang at the beaches through mid-week. Hopefully the low moves ashore late next week and we get a little more sunshine by next weekend for that next swell. Make sure to check Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Notice how warm our water's been so early in May? Like 5 degrees warmer than normal? Well, the tropical Pacific notices too. If you'll recall, back in late April we had the first tropical depression of the season form. Not that exciting since it was only a depression (39 mph or less winds), but it was the earliest tropical system ever recorded in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Is that an omen for our upcoming hurricane season that runs May 15th through November 30th? I'll get into that in a moment. I'll dig into the details first with the story from Forbes magazine:
The eastern Pacific Ocean made history on April 25th with the formation of Tropical Depression One-E, the earliest tropical system ever recorded in the ocean basin. The premature depression developed about 900 miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The depression remained far out to sea and dissipated by Monday without affecting land.
Tropical Depression One-E formed three weeks before the official May 15 start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season. No storm on record has formed this early in the year in the basin, with reliable records here stretching back to the beginning of the satellite era in 1966, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical depression maintained its strength for a few days before dissipating due to wind shear. If it did strengthen though to the 39 mph tropical storm threshold, it would have been named Amanda.
This tropical depression took advantage of a perfect window of opportunity. A tropical wave developed broad rotation within an area of lower wind shear and sea surface temperatures around 80°F (about the minimum temp for formation). A persistent cluster of thunderstorms within the wave allowed a closed center of circulation to take root at the surface and organize the system into a tropical depression.
Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean doesn't begin until May 15. But the dates that start and end a hurricane season aren't hard cutoffs. These seasonal windows are driven by climatology; the vast majority of storms form within the six-month hurricane season, but some can and do form outside of those dates- as evident by the depression on April 25th- or the latest on December 31st, 2015! Nothing like having a tropical depression form on New Year's Eve. Crazy.
While preseason storms are rare in the eastern Pacific, it’s not terribly uncommon to see early storms over in the Atlantic Ocean. The basin's hurricane season officially begins on June 1, but the last five hurricane seasons—2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015—all saw their first named storms before June 1. That was an unprecedented stretch for early-season formation in the Atlantic, and it remains to be seen if the basin will continue this streak next month.
Hurricane forecasters have already made their prediction for the Atlantic season and they are expecting above average activity. Good for surfers, bad for homeowners. The Pacific forecast won't come out for a few weeks but early indications are that we're in a neutral phase (neither La Nina or El Nino) so our chances for hurricane surf this summer should be average. As mentioned above though, one positive note is our warmer than normal water temps to start our spring. Our location is too far away to have any effect on hurricane formation of course, but that does mean we may be wearing trunks a month earlier than normal.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Now that the beaches are opening back up, are you dying to get in the water? One problem though- it's been a while since you waxed up that board, you wore a 4/3 last time out, you can't find your leash, and your local surf shop isn't open yet! No problem, have I got the solution for you- Amazon Surf Shop! From the online retailer that gave you Gas-X delivered to your door within the hour, that hard to find VHS copy of Steel Magnolias, and more fake teeth than you can shake a stick at, Amazon.com has your surf needs. Such products as:
- Up Surf Wax where the "anti-skid effect is obvious and stable"
- Future Tri Fins from 'Festnight' that look like FCS fins
- Leashes that are "stacked with features for the surfer"
- Surf mats that are "for adults funny and all your jumping family"
- Traction pads that will make you surf like a beginner
- Surfing shorts with a "special polishing treatment, feel like peach skin"
- And a surfboard that if you "take it out in the waves, will be very enjoyable"
Confused? So am I. Don't that let stop you though. Make sure to check out these bitchin' products here! Or just support your local surf shop like you know you should.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Vanquisher
My 1st Girlfriend Was Named Karmantine
Certified Big Wave Trainer
