I call it... Karmantine.
Why is the ocean brown?
There is a bloom of the dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra, which is a common member of the plankton community in Southern California. Each cell of this microscopic organism is only 35 µm in diameter. So there are lots of them out there, discoloring the water hence the term red tide.
How large is the red tide?
This bloom stretches from Baja California to Los Angeles, so it is large in size. Sometimes they are more local. Anyone remember the huge 1995 red tide?
When did it start?
We spotted it blooming a few miles off the Scripps Pier around the end of March 2020.
How long do they last?
Our local red tides can last for days (e.g., May 2018), one to two weeks (Sept. 2013, June 2019), or one or more months (Oct. 2011 and 1995). There is no way to predict how long they will last. While some phytoplankton blooms are stimulated by nutrient runoff, those of Lingulodinium polyedra are associated with relaxed upwelling and stratified water column conditions.
How often do red tides occur?
Red tides of Lingulodinium polyedra have been monitored by Scripps Oceanography scientists since 1900 by taking water samples. This effort continues thanks to SCCOOS and the Shore Stations water sampling program.
Is the water safe for surfing/swimming?
In some areas such as the Mediterranean, Lingulodinium polyedra produces yessotoxin, a compound that acts as a neurotoxin, but local populations do not produce yessotoxin. However, some people are sensitive to inhaling air associated with the red tide, so the organisms must be producing other compounds that can affect human health. In general during a red tide there is lots of dissolved and particulate matter in the water with associated enhanced microbial activity. It is personal choice whether to go in the water, but there is no public health warning associated with the red tide.
Is the red tide bioluminescent?
Yes! Dinoflagellates use bioluminescence as a predator avoidance behavior. See what it looks like in the video below, which shows bioluminescent waves near Scripps Pier, or this video of dolphins swimming through the red tide in Newport Beach.
SURF:
As you know by now, I've got this weird prediction that as soon as the beach ban is lifted (and no, opening up a small section of Moonlight Beach doesn't count), the waves are going to start firing. So far this past month it's either been small & clean or we've had waves but it's been windy. The two (good waves and good weather) just can't seem to get along. It's like the ocean is helping us #stayhome. I call it 'Karmantine'. (Get it? Karma + Quarantine? I'm making t-shirts. Gonna be rich).
And to really keep us away from our beaches, ol' King Neptune has delivered May Gray/June Gloom early AND the red tide is the worst in years (more on that below). So it's been small, cloudy, and red tide. You can have it. Happy to be at home in my sweats watching old Matlock reruns.
So the thought process is that if we do our part and not clog the line ups, beaches one by one will start opening up in the next couple weeks. And if that's the case, we should have good weather AND good surf (Karmantine- more on that below).
But for this weekend, if your local beach is open, you'll find waist high+ NW windswell and chest high Saturday/Sunday with increasing W winds AND red tide. I'll wait this one out. Again. Here's the tide and sun info if you must:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:00 AM sunrise (you could probably paddle out by 5:45 if it wasn't so overcast)
- 7:32 PM sunset (you could probably surf until 7:45 if it wasn't so overcast)
- Water temps in N County are in the mid-60's (and warmer if it wasn't so overcast)
- And tides are pretty straightforward this weekend:
- 4.5' at sunrise and sunset
- 0.5' at lunch
FORECAST:
If you survived the wind & red tide this weekend, you'll get more chest high NW on Monday with less wind thankfully, overcast conditions... and red tide. Tuesday through Friday should be sunny with background NW/SW background swells in the waist high+ range. As far as next weekend goes...
Ok. I'm making a bold prediction here- but it won't come true if we screw this up and crowd our beaches this upcoming week. Ready?...
Karmantine will kick in next Saturday the 9th. Why? Cities are starting to slowly open their beaches (if we don't screw this up) and the forecast models are showing a good storm off Antarctica this weekend which would give us solid head high SSW surf next Saturday the 9th through Tuesday the 12th.
We also may get some NW wind/groundswell too. As far as the the weather goes, it's anyone's guess that far out- but my bet is on low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings. And this monster of a red tide should be gone by then (should be). Most likely the city beaches will start to open up (slowly) next week and hopefully state parks (Torrey Pines, Cardiff, and most of Carlsbad) no later than the week of the 11th. That's IF we don't crowd the lineups like Trestles and the beaches like Newport.
Models also show more shoulder high SW swell taking shape around the 15th. Pay your dues now for when the surf finally turns on!
And if I'm wrong about the Karmantine, I'm going to give up surfing and start Jazzercising (not exactly start Jazzercising, just do it more frequently).
WEATHER:
Love how we got record rains early in the month and almost record heat by the 3rd week. The past few days have returned to normal spring conditions with overcast conditions at the beach and temps around 70. Look for more of that this weekend- with a little more of a sea breeze Sunday/Monday. Next week high pressure sets up again and we're back to near record heat (for May) with temps in the 80's at the beaches and 90 inland. Just need some surf (and open beaches) to enjoy it. Next weekend we should return to low clouds/fog. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
If your local beach has been closed this past week and you haven't seen the red time first hand, I'm sure you saw plenty of pics and videos on social media. It pops up every few years in varying degrees of strength, and this year seems to be stronger than normal. Just what causes red tide and is it bad for your health? Here's what our friends at Scripps Institute had to say:
A red tide offshore Southern California is bringing a spectacular display of bioluminescence to beaches at night. From glowing waves seen at several San Diego beaches to swirls of electric blue light stirred by dolphins gliding through the water off Newport Beach, photos and videos of the phenomenon are making the rounds on social media. But what is the science behind this natural light show?
Bioluminescence expert Michael Latz, a scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, said the red tide is due to aggregations of the dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra, a species well known for its bioluminescent displays. Each microscopic cell contains some “sunscreen,” giving it a reddish-brown color. On sunny days, the organisms swim toward the surface where they concentrate, resulting in the intensified coloration of the water—and the reason for the term "red tide." At night, when the phytoplankton are agitated by waves or other movement in the water, they emit a dazzling neon blue glow.
Red tides are unpredictable and not all of them produce bioluminescence. There is no red tide monitoring program, but the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) at Scripps Oceanography performs weekly sampling for potential harmful algal toxins. The Scripps Shore Stations Program also collects daily water samples and performs plankton analysis twice a week. Latz said that local red tides of L. polyedra have been known since the early 1900s due to observations by Scripps scientists. There are several Scripps scientists sampling the current red tide to learn more about the genetic and metabolic characteristics of the organisms. Scientists do not know how long the current red tide will last, as previous events have lasted anywhere from one week to a month or more (please no).
Bioluminescent displays are viewed best from a dark beach at least two hours after sunset, though visibility is not guaranteed. Below, Scripps scientist Michael Latz answers some frequently asked questions about the red tide:
Bioluminescence expert Michael Latz, a scientist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, said the red tide is due to aggregations of the dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra, a species well known for its bioluminescent displays. Each microscopic cell contains some “sunscreen,” giving it a reddish-brown color. On sunny days, the organisms swim toward the surface where they concentrate, resulting in the intensified coloration of the water—and the reason for the term "red tide." At night, when the phytoplankton are agitated by waves or other movement in the water, they emit a dazzling neon blue glow.
Red tides are unpredictable and not all of them produce bioluminescence. There is no red tide monitoring program, but the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) at Scripps Oceanography performs weekly sampling for potential harmful algal toxins. The Scripps Shore Stations Program also collects daily water samples and performs plankton analysis twice a week. Latz said that local red tides of L. polyedra have been known since the early 1900s due to observations by Scripps scientists. There are several Scripps scientists sampling the current red tide to learn more about the genetic and metabolic characteristics of the organisms. Scientists do not know how long the current red tide will last, as previous events have lasted anywhere from one week to a month or more (please no).
Bioluminescent displays are viewed best from a dark beach at least two hours after sunset, though visibility is not guaranteed. Below, Scripps scientist Michael Latz answers some frequently asked questions about the red tide:
Why is the ocean brown?
There is a bloom of the dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra, which is a common member of the plankton community in Southern California. Each cell of this microscopic organism is only 35 µm in diameter. So there are lots of them out there, discoloring the water hence the term red tide.
How large is the red tide?
This bloom stretches from Baja California to Los Angeles, so it is large in size. Sometimes they are more local. Anyone remember the huge 1995 red tide?
When did it start?
We spotted it blooming a few miles off the Scripps Pier around the end of March 2020.
How long do they last?
Our local red tides can last for days (e.g., May 2018), one to two weeks (Sept. 2013, June 2019), or one or more months (Oct. 2011 and 1995). There is no way to predict how long they will last. While some phytoplankton blooms are stimulated by nutrient runoff, those of Lingulodinium polyedra are associated with relaxed upwelling and stratified water column conditions.
How often do red tides occur?
Red tides of Lingulodinium polyedra have been monitored by Scripps Oceanography scientists since 1900 by taking water samples. This effort continues thanks to SCCOOS and the Shore Stations water sampling program.
Is the water safe for surfing/swimming?
In some areas such as the Mediterranean, Lingulodinium polyedra produces yessotoxin, a compound that acts as a neurotoxin, but local populations do not produce yessotoxin. However, some people are sensitive to inhaling air associated with the red tide, so the organisms must be producing other compounds that can affect human health. In general during a red tide there is lots of dissolved and particulate matter in the water with associated enhanced microbial activity. It is personal choice whether to go in the water, but there is no public health warning associated with the red tide.
Is the red tide bioluminescent?
Yes! Dinoflagellates use bioluminescence as a predator avoidance behavior. See what it looks like in the video below, which shows bioluminescent waves near Scripps Pier, or this video of dolphins swimming through the red tide in Newport Beach.
Is the frequency of these red tide events increasing?
Globally, red tide events are increasing in frequency. Locally, there may be more frequent events since the 1960s. More research is needed to understand the factors that lead to red tides.
When will the next red tide occur?
Forecast tools are in development but we can't yet predict when red tides will occur and how long they will last. Researchers at Scripps Oceanography and elsewhere are tracking and sampling the events so that we can better understand their dynamics.
Globally, red tide events are increasing in frequency. Locally, there may be more frequent events since the 1960s. More research is needed to understand the factors that lead to red tides.
When will the next red tide occur?
Forecast tools are in development but we can't yet predict when red tides will occur and how long they will last. Researchers at Scripps Oceanography and elsewhere are tracking and sampling the events so that we can better understand their dynamics.
In a nutshell, my two cents is that the strong rains we had recently created a massive amount of nutrients to flow from land into the sea then our heat wave helped it bloom exceptionally large. Hopefully the overcast conditions the past week will help it dissipate in time for the next swell.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Tired of being stuck at home AND not surfing? Don't have $10 million lying around for a wave pool? For a minuscule $475k, have I got the cure for your surf fever. It's called Iguana Island and features a three-bedroom, two-bathroom house with wraparound porch, dining room, bar and living area (yes please), plus additional accommodations for staff (on the other side of the island if you don't want to mingle with the commoners), all built to modern standards. A boardwalk meanders around the property to encourage leisurely strolls among the foliage (yes please) and migrating butterflies, and a 28-foot observation tower for daily surf checks (in case you didn't want to walk the entire 5 acre property to see the right and left points on opposite sides of the island). Hope you played the lottery this week- 'cause it could be yours. Check it out here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Smarter Than The Average Bear
Stone Cold Crazy
If The WSL Season Is Cancelled, I Win The 2020 World Title By Default
