SURF:
Nothing too exciting this past week. We actually had a little pre-season SW swell in the water for some chest high waves in far north county SD and better sets in the OC. Today we have leftover SW with a touch of small NW. Nothing much but waist high waves with chest sets in north county SD, chest high in the OC, and waist high in south SD. Looks like it will be smaller tomorrow but the weather will be nice. Sunday starts off slow but we have a weak front coming in to kick in late afternoon winds and an increase from the NW. Not the best scenario but it will be rideable if you're desperate. Long story short- not much this weekend until late Sunday and even then it may be windy from the SW. Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, 5' at 9am, 0' at 4pm, and back up to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/NorthCountySurf.
FORECAST:
Good news/bad news. Good news is that short period NW swell is coming Monday. Bad news is that it's associated with a windy cold front. Not much rain with this system but it will be windy and it will generate some rideable storm surf. Once that rolls through by Tuesday, there's not much left Wednesday except nice conditions. The only real surf of interest lately it seems is coming from the southern hemisphere. Nothing big is headed our way but the SW will keep us rideable Thursday/Friday. Look for far north county SD to have some chest high sets, the OC to have shoulder high sets, and south SD to be waist high+. We're kind of in a transition now- no real strong storms in the Aleutians and the south Pacific really hasn't kicked in yet.
WEATHER:
Looks like we have a nice weekend on tap. After the weak cold front moved through late Wednesday, high pressure has set up behind it and we have good weather today and Saturday. By Sunday another weak front is poised to move down the state and the fog increases and winds increase later in the day. Sunday night/Monday look to have some feeble showers but strong winds. That clears out by Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday looks to have warm weather and early morning offshore winds. By Friday, charts show another weak front coming through for wind/showers.
BEST BET:
If the models hold right, Thursday is the call with a new fun SW swell in the water and high pressure above for great conditions. Bet your life on it! (Don't actually do that, it's just a phrase I like using).
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Now that we have a little break from the heavy rains, I wanted to check in with the rainfall totals to date to see how the 'dry' La Nina scenario was holding up for the rainy season- which is July 1st 2010 to June 30th 2011. Here's the latest from the National Weather Service at downtown San Diego and central OC (Irvine):
-SD season to date: 10.51". Percent of normal to date: 136%. Average rainfall for the entire season: 10.77".
-OC season to date: 15.28". Percent of normal to date: 158%. Average rainfall for the entire season: 12.76".
As you can see, the 'dry' La Nina never materialized for us. As it stands today, SD is 97% to it's average of 10.77". I'm assuming this weekend we'll get a quick shot of showers and get us to 100%. The OC is above it's average already of 12.76" so anything additional the next few months will help out our long term drought situation. Models also indicate that La Nina is slowing waning and we'll get to a neutral state by summer (which would be what we consider normal- neither La Nina or El Nino). If that's the case, I'm hoping for another average rainfall season next season of around 10".
BEST OF THE BLOG:
This past week there were some sweet deals to be had on Seshday for classic surf vids like Secret Machine with the Hobgoods, Occy, and Taj, as well as The Life with team O'Neill's resident Superfreak Jordy Smith. And if you just want some groovy Jack Johnson tunes and ol' fashioned Slater ripping, A Broke Down Melody is the call. Don't miss out again! Check out the blog!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Gregarious
Sheen's Wingman
Master Waxer
