Fireworks.
SURF:
The ocean was messing around with small NW/SW for the better part of this week then a late season cold front came through the region Wednesday to give us some jumbled head high NW. Underneath the mess there was a SW stalking our shores. Once things cleaned up Thursday, we had plenty of overhead+++ SW with leftover NW windswell to peak it up. Best spots in the OC were double overhead and the Wedge had the odd triple overhead+++ set to scare the tourists. The SW peaked overnight but we still have plenty of head high+ sets from the SW with a touch of NW to cross it up here in north county today. W wind is blowing already in the 5mph range. The OC continues to see overhead+++ sets.
The SW drops a little more Saturday for head high waves with an odd overhead set in the OC. By Sunday the SW has some leftover shoulder high sets but oddly enough, the north Pacific won’t die late in this season and the NW starts to increase again for head high waves late in the day. We also have a weak front moving in on Sunday so there may be a little bit of junky SW winds in the air. Make sure to hit it early. All in all it should be a fun 3 days of surf this weekend. Water temps are holding in the low 60’s. Tides the next few days are about -1’ at 7am, 4’ at 2pm, and down to 2’ at 7pm. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
After a fun weekend of combo surf, the new NW peaks on Monday and it’s joined by another SW in the head high range. Unfortunately that weak cold front on Sunday sticks around on Monday and conditions won’t be the cleanest. Nothing major but just annoying. The NW/SW lasts until Wednesday morning and then the atmosphere cleans up as we get another small shoulder high SW in SD with head high sets in the OC. And models hint at more NW by next weekend. A busy week indeed.
WEATHER:
There’s an old saying that goes something like this: Is there any other job you can think of in which you can be wrong all the time and not get fired? That job of course is a weather man. After I go on and on in last week’s Surf Report about the rain being over for the season, we get over ½” of rain on Wednesday. Classic. Today on the other hand we have nice conditions from weak high pressure and Saturday we’ve got some high clouds and mild conditions overhead. Sunday unfortunately we’ve got another weak front moving through with clouds and a thick marine layer/low clouds for drizzle/light rain. Probably won’t be as strong as this past Wednesday’s front (don’t quote me on that) and we’ll mainly get clouds, a little wind, and a chance of light showers. That clears out by Tuesday and the second half of next week high pressure should take control and we’ll get nice sunny conditions (don’t quote me on that).
BEST BET:
Today is probably the day. Even though we have surf next week too, it won’t be as big as today and there’s that pesky weak cold front coming Sunday/Monday. 2nd choice would be when the weather cleans up towards Wednesday and getting some of that new small SW or that new NW towards next weekend.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
And the news you’ve all been waiting for…. The 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook from NOAA has arrived! So let’s face it, the hurricanes (or lack thereof) off Baja and Mainland Mexico the past few years have really sucked. Excuse my French. Seriously though, we’ve been in quite a drought. When was the last time we had a bangin’ hurricane swell roll through here where you were squared?! Probably not since the summer of ’97. Since then it’s been dismal. So what does NOAA have in store for us this summer. Here’s the latest: NOAA’s 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season. (The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140oW north of the equator). This outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of two main climate signals: The ongoing conditions that have been suppressing eastern Pacific hurricane seasons since 1995, and a high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) during the peak months (July-September) of the season, but with lingering La Niña impacts perhaps into July. Climate patterns similar to those expected this year have historically produced a wide range of activity. Allowing for uncertainties, we estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
9-15 named storms,
5-8 hurricanes,
1-3 major hurricanes,
An ACE range 45%-105% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The 1981-2010 averages for the eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15-16 named storms, 8-9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
So there you have it. A below normal season for hurricanes. Again. Man that sucks.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Busy week on the blog. Deals from Dragon and Freestyle, wild waveriding from Wilko and Wilson, and local surf checks. Make sure to get lost in the blog below.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
To make the Pic of the Week, I usually have some criteria that needs to be met. Some exotic locale to get you packing your bags. An empty line up shot because you’re tired at looking at your local crowded break. And some kind of photo quality ‘cause grainy cell phone shots are played out. But today I make an exception. The Wedge was BOMBING yesterday and orangecounty.com was there to document it. And considering we haven’t had big surf in awhile, I had to share my excitement with you. Don’t worry, you’ll get the classic empty tropical line up shot next week. But today, enjoy the freak known as ‘The Wedge’.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Effervescent
Schwarzenegger Love Child
Like to Watch Resin Cure
