THE Surf Report 9/21/12

Summer we hardly knew ye.

SURF:

The last day of summer is upon us. How did we fare? I'd give it a 7 based on the great weather we had (finally) and warm water temps (finally). Surf wasn't bad either- pretty consistent waist to chest high most of the time- just wish we had a couple more bombing swells. Today we have great weather on tap and some leftover SW swell. Sets around town are chest high with a couple plus sets in the OC. Tomorrow is about a foot smaller and Sunday about the same. Nothing too exciting. At least next week shows promise (more on that below). The water is still nice though- holding at 70.

Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, 5.5' after lunch, and down to 1' at sunset (which by the way is around 6:40 now- same as the sunrise). Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a little weekend of surf- we have some interesting swells on the charts. We actually have 3 legitimate swells forecasted from all 3 storm producing regions. 1st up is our first NW of the season- just a few days after the start of fall. Nice timing. Look for chest high waves in north county SD on Tuesday with sets close to head high in south SD.

Next up- the tropics are still alive (it is an El Nino year, isn't it)? Models show a hurricane forming this weekend which should give us swell towards Wednesday. Hoping for some head high sets in the OC from that one.

And a few days ago in the southern hemisphere, we had a good storm take shape that shot some head high SW swell our way. That should be arriving towards Wednesday too. And after that we have another storm on the charts today that will give us a similar sized SW swell for next weekend. AND the north Pacific is starting to come to life for the fall so we're expecting more NW too towards next weekend if the charts hold true. All in all should be a fun week next week.

WEATHER:

Great weather on tap today will give way this weekend to slightly cooler weather and low clouds. Nothing drastic- just typical weather around here. Expect a little more night and morning low clouds/fog burning off to hazy afternoon sunshine through the next 7 days. Temps at the beaches will be in the low to mid-70's. Sounds good.

BEST BET:
Depends where you live. If you live in south SD- maybe next Tuesday when that new NW arrives. Or Wednesday in north county SD when there's leftover NW and new SW filling in. Or the OC next weekend when the forecasted SW arrives. Place your bets!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So what’s the latest with the ‘impending’ El Nino this winter? Well, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest report this month says “El Nino conditions are likely to develop during September 2012”. Which is right now of course. Amazingly, neutral conditions continued during August 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean. If you haven’t noticed lately, we’ve had some low 70 water temps this week around north county- which is pretty good as we head into October. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained elevated during the month, consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific. Possible signs of El Niño development in the atmosphere included upper-level easterly wind anomalies (i.e. winds typical go slack or switch their normal direction during an El Nino season) and a slightly negative Southern Oscillation Index (which would show sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia). Despite these indicators, key aspects of the tropical atmosphere did not support the development of El Niño conditions during the month of August. In particular, low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, and the pattern of tropical convection from Indonesia to the central equatorial Pacific was inconsistent with El Niño with the typical regions of both enhanced and suppressed convection shifted too far west. Because of the lack of clear atmospheric anomaly patterns, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August. HOWEVER… there are ongoing signs of a possibly imminent transition towards El Niño in the atmosphere as well as the ocean. Most of the models now predict the onset of El Niño during the August-October 2012 period, persisting through the remainder of the year. The consensus of dynamical models indicates a borderline moderate strength event while the statistical model consensus indicates a borderline weak El Niño. Supported by the model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, the official forecast calls for the development of most likely a weak El Niño during September 2012, persisting through December-February 2012-13. Long story short, looks like we’ll still have an El Nino but don’t expect anything like the winter of ’82-’83. Look for a little more rain than normal and a couple more swells as well as some slightly bigger surf. Which is WAAAAY better than what we’ve had the past few years.
BEST OF THE BLOG:

Got 3 Clips of the Day posted on the North County Surf blog. Are you looking for new school ripping? Check the Owen Wright clip. Looking for the best surfer of all time? Check the Slater footage from the Lowers contest this week. Or maybe you're an old school power gouger. Then check out Occy turning back the clock at Margaret River. And of course an in depth THE Surf Report too- all of that and more at in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

A lot has been said about Baja over the years. Dangerous, beautiful, empty, tempting, adventurous, raw, and more. But the fact still remains it's one of the last spots on earth to get some firing surf by yourself- without hopping on a plane to Indo. And without those pesky malaria shots. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Know It All
Time Traveller
1st to Surf Kirra & Waikiki With Both Rabbits