Please continue to hold for the next available swell.
SURF:
Nothing big the past week but some fun shoulder high waves the closer you got to the OC. Today is just a shell of it's former self with leftover waist high SW groundswell and a touch of NW windswell. The OC still has chest high waves but I'm not making an effort today to drive up there.
FORECAST:
Still no big storms in the Pacific the past few days (besides Cristina- but she's hiding behind Baja) so we don't have much on tap next week.
WEATHER:
Still no June Gloom. Sure we've had low clouds and fog this past week, but it really hasn't stuck around all day. We've had pleasant afternoons at the beaches once the clouds burn off mid-day. Look for the same for the upcoming week with temps in the low 70's. Not too shabby.
BEST BET:
Does waist high+ combo swell really count as 'best'? If so, probably this Wednesday with a little SW and a little NW.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
All the talk this spring has been about the return of El Nino. Signs in the tropics have been pointing to a real barn burner down there. We’ve already had the strongest hurricane on record for May (Amanda), the quickest intensification of a hurricane on record (Cristina went from a tropical storm to a category 4 in about 24 hours), and it's the first time we’ve had two category 4 hurricanes before the month of July even started. What’s going to happen once summer hits?! And we’re not even talking about the effects of El Nino this winter. With the hurricanes already kicking into high gear, the effect that El Niño has on both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes seasons is worth exploring. The hurricane impacts of El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are like a see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, strengthening hurricane activity in one region while weakening it in the other.
Simply put, El Niño favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin. These impacts are primarily caused by changes in the vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000-35,000 ft. above the ground. Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart, or even prevent it from forming.
ENSO perturbs tropical and subtropical atmospheric circulation:
During El Niño, the area of tropical Pacific convection and its associated Hadley circulation expand eastward from the western Pacific, sometimes extending to the west coast of South America. (A tutorial on El Niño and La Niña can be found at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center website.) At the same time, the equatorial Walker circulation is weaker than average.
These conditions produce an anomalous upper-level, ridge-trough pattern in the subtropics, with an amplified ridge over the subtropical Pacific in the area north of the enhanced convection, and a downstream trough over the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic. Over the central and eastern Pacific, the enhanced subtropical ridge is associated with weaker upper-level winds and reduced vertical wind shear, which favors more hurricane activity.
Over the Atlantic basin, the amplified trough is associated with stronger upper-level westerly winds and stronger lower-level easterly trade winds, both of which increase the vertical wind shear and suppress hurricane activity. In addition to enhanced vertical wind shear, El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the amount of sinking motion and increasing the atmospheric stability.
La Niña has opposite impacts across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. During La Niña, the area of tropical convection and its Hadley circulation is retracted westward to the western Pacific and Indonesia, and the equatorial Walker circulation is enhanced. Convection is typically absent across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
In the upper atmosphere, these conditions produce an amplified trough over the subtropical Pacific in the area north of the suppressed convection, and a downstream ridge over the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic. Over the central and eastern subtropical Pacific, the enhanced trough is associated with stronger upper-level winds and stronger vertical wind shear, which suppress hurricane activity. Over the Atlantic basin, the anomalous upper-level ridge is associated with weaker upper- and lower- level winds, both of which reduce the vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity. La Niña also favors increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the amount of sinking motion and decreasing the atmospheric stability.
ENSO phases interact with other climate patterns that influence hurricanes:
Another prominent climate factor to influence Atlantic hurricane activity is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006). The warm phase of the AMO is associated with high-activity eras for Atlantic hurricanes, such as has been in place since 1995. Conversely, the cold phase of the AMO is associated with low-activity eras (such as the period 1971-1994).
The warm phase of the AMO reflects warmer SSTs across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region. A key atmospheric feature of this pattern is a stronger West African monsoon, which produces a westward extension of the upper-level easterly winds (near 35,000 ft), along with weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere (near 5,000 ft).
This wind pattern is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity, partly because it results in weaker vertical wind shear. The weaker trade winds also contribute to a more conducive structure (i.e. increased cyclonic shear) of the mid-level (near 10,000 ft) African Easterly Jet (AEJ), favoring hurricane development from tropical cloud systems (i.e. easterly waves) moving westward from Africa. At the same time, these wind patterns are associated with a more northward push into the MDR of deep tropical moisture and unstable air, each of which also favors stronger hurricanes.
The hurricane activity in a given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO. During an Atlantic high-activity era, El Niño typically results in a near-normal season, and La Niña produces an above-normal season. During an Atlantic low-activity era, El Niño typically results in a below-normal season and La Niña results in a near-normal season (Bell and Chelliah 2006).
Similarly for the central and eastern Pacific basins, the combination of a low-activity era and El Niño often produces a near-normal season, while La Niña produces a below-normal season. For a Pacific high-activity era, El Niño often produces an above-normal season, while La Niña produces a near-normal season. And so far, this prognosis seems right on track.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Haven't seen firing surf lately? The 2nd installment of the 'Stoke! Surf Gallery' is up. Some of the best shots over the years from the Pic of the Week. I've been doing The Surf Report for 20 years now and 15 of those years have had the Pic of the Week- so I thought it was about time to open the treasure chest and post them on the blog. As well as a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
What's better: East or West Coast? My vote... East Coast. Don't laugh. Hear me out first: 4 times the amount of world champions. Tropical weather 24/7 (ok- that's a stretch- only south Florida). EVERYONE is stoked on surfing. Drive your truck up onto the sand. And then this- some mysto left sand point on the Outer Banks. Imagine if this was in California?! There'd be 3 Starbucks on that point, 1,000 kooks in the line up, and a power plant ruining the view.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Exploded On The Scene
Genie Every Third Friday
Godfather of the Floater
