Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Surf Check

 
 
Got some fun little waves out there today from a leftover NW and some really leftover SW (sounds like a Thanksgiving dinner that's been sitting in the fridge for a week). Waist high is the norm with maybe a chest high set if you're lucky.
Shouldn't sound ungrateful- heck this would be all-time for Florida today- but it feels like a letdown after all the good surf we've had in February.
Water temps are still 5-6 degrees warmer than normal at 62 degrees and tides are pretty mellow the next few days at 3' around sunrise, dropping to 0' before lunch, and up to 3' again at sunset.
We've got 1 more day of nice weather before the fog returns Friday in anticipation of our next weather system. Speaking of rain, I was surprised how much rain we got this past weekend from that 'weak' storm. I expected to get just a couple showers but it turned out to be a quarter inch. Crank up the El Nino hype machine again! Just kidding, but it was a welcome drop in the bucket and we are due for some more wet weather this weekend. Models show the winds picking up late Friday, showers starting on Saturday, and the brunt of the storm arriving Saturday evening/Sunday morning. We should get around 3/4" of rain with this along with gusts to 30mph along the coast. We get a slight break on Monday then the next storm arrives on Tuesday.
So before I get ahead of myself with all this rain talk, let's discuss the surf first and back into the weather scenarios and see how it will impact our upcoming week of waves. First up is a small storm that took shape off Antarctica last week that will send us chest high SW tomorrow and slightly better waves for the OC. That holds into Friday. Then the storm arrives Saturday, the S winds pick up, and we get messy head high+ surf the majority of the weekend.
As mentioned in my report on the weather, we get a slight break on Monday before another storm is forecasted to arrive on Tuesday. And us luck would have it, we have a BIG storm brewing off Antarctica today that is sending us our first real SW swell of 2015. The good news is that we'll have overhead sets here starting Tuesday and rolling into Wednesday; the OC will see bigger sets. But that damn rain/wind that is forecasted on Tuesday will screw everything up. I'm hope that either:

A. The models are wrong about the rain and high pressure sets up shop after this weekend's storm
B. The rain does arrive, but maybe it won't show up until late Tuesday so at least Tuesday morning will be rideable

And because of the all the storm activity in the northern hemisphere, we should have a shot of NW ground/windswell off and on all next week. Which is good because all that NW would make the big SW swell peaky next week- but that won't matter if it's stormy/windy/rainy!

After the waves/weather run their course next week, models don't show much in the way of SW/NW late in the week but it's still early but I'm at least hoping the weather will clean up by next weekend...