THE Surf Report

Winter = Weather + Waves

SURF:

Had a fun week of small surf and nice weather. That is the same case today with a small SW in the water along with a building NW swell from a storm moving down the coast. Clouds and SE winds are increasing as the storm approaches tonight. That's the good news (which really isn't good news). The bad news is that the winds will increase more tonight (in the 15-25mph+ range) and as it does, the storm surf will pick up.

Look for small waves in the morning then jumbled head high+ waves in the afternoon. That lasts into Sunday. The water should be dirty also with all the runoff. Probably not what you want to hear on a Friday. On the bright side, water temps are still 62 degrees in the middle of winter!

Tides the next few days are around 4' at sunrise, down to 0' at lunch, and back up to 4' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:
The stormy conditions this weekend keep rolling into the first part of the work week as more wet weather arrives late Monday with windy conditions again and more NW windswell. Unfortunately, all this messy weather will mess up a good SW swell arriving late Monday into Tuesday also.

There was a good storm last week off Antarctica that was to give us head high+ sets in north county and overhead+ sets in the OC- but the impending storm on Monday night will blow it to bits. So we have that going for us.

Hopefully the weather cleans up the 2nd half of next week as there is more NW on the long term models for next weekend.

WEATHER:

Looks like winter has finally returned to the month of February. After a fairly dry month, we got a little shot of showers last Sunday then nice weather the past few days. We currently have a storm moving down the California coast today and showers may arrive late tonight. The brunt of the storm though will start to build on Saturday with windy conditions tomorrow and the heavier showers late Saturday into Sunday. We may get a slight break on Monday morning but more showers should arrive during the day. Models are shifty after that so I can't tell you if it will be sunny the 2nd half of next week or if we'll get another storm next weekend. Until then, keep your eyes on the two upcoming storms the next 5 days as we should get close to an inch of rain at the coast and snow in the local mountains.

BEST BET:
I wouldn't say 'best', but Tuesday may be the call with the combo SW and NW swells- if you don't mind a little wind and rain...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Most of the talk about global warming has been centered around the climate and it’s impacts on land. But what about the waves? What about us surfers? We’re important too damnit! Well, the San Jose Mercury News reported recently that the surf spots you know and love may become obsolete in the future. But could new spots emerge? Read on…

On a summer day in 1885, three Hawaiian princes surfed at the mouth of the San Lorenzo River on crudely constructed boards made from coastal redwoods, bringing the sport to the North American mainland. Today their wave-riding successors consult satellite weather forecasts on smartphones before heading to Steamer Lane and Pleasure Point in Santa Cruz to don neoprene wetsuits. But the new century could bring the biggest transformation yet to surfing -- the waves themselves.  A rapidly changing global climate will likely affect prime surfing spots worldwide. And closer to home, the forecasts for Monterey Bay's famed big swells, while far from certain, are also far from good.  "It definitely worries me," said big-wave rider Jake Wormhoudt, who has already noticed changes in water temperature, weather and sand deposition throughout the 35 years he has surfed in Santa Cruz. One major source for California's surfing waves are open-ocean storms that send wave-generating swells toward the California coast. By 2100, these storms could shift, sending their swells on a course parallel to the coast rather than toward it. This change, coupled with dramatic sea-level rise, could eradicate today's surfing spots.  Scientists came to these conclusions using global climate models -- complex, computer-based crystal balls that use past conditions, current trends and greenhouse gas emission scenarios to predict our climate future.  Researchers recently adjusted these models to account for waves in a warming world, said coastal engineer Li Erikson, of the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz. Their findings surprised both scientists and surfers, who assumed a warmer and stormy future might push more waves to the coast. "Well, I thought so, too," Erikson said with a laugh. But, she explained, storms on land do not necessarily mean higher waves along the coast. Prime surfing corridors, she and other scientists explain, arise through a perfectly timed combination of deep-ocean swells, local winds and storm fronts -- all tossed in just the right direction against offshore shelves to push up the perfect wave. Climate change may simply upset this equilibrium.  "We'll roll with it," mused Pete Ogilvie, a Monterey Bay surfer for more than three decades who sums up what many see as the inevitability of change with a laid-back Surf City vibe. Changes to the surf can come in several forms. With the ocean warming and polar ice caps melting, sea levels are expected to rise along the Northern California coast between 1½ and 6 feet by the end of the century, which will change when, where and how waves break against the coast. "As we increase sea level ... those same size waves won't break over those nice bedrock ridges in the same spots that they used to," said Curt Storlazzi, a research geologist and oceanographer, also with the USGS office in Santa Cruz. "They're going to break much closer to shore."

Some Monterey Bay communities have erected barriers to protect homes and infrastructure from rising seas. In these areas, rising sea levels will eliminate low-tide surfing spots but the barriers would prevent new low-tide spots from opening up, said David Field, an oceanographer with Hawaii Pacific University who grew up surfing in the Monterey Bay. John Dee, who has been surfing in and around the bay for 20 years, is concerned about losing the area's low-tide corridors. "If there's a 3-foot tide, everyone's out here," he said recently as he headed out to Steamer Lane. "If there's a 5-foot tide, nobody's out here." These barriers may also contribute to beach erosion, cutting off access to surfing spots. Even though climate models predict larger storms and waves on the high seas, the North Pacific swell -- which generates many of the Monterey Bay's major winter waves -- is expected to shift. "As the temperature rises, especially in the Arctic, the big winter storms are moving farther north," Storlazzi said. "So areas along California are going to become less impacted from waves. "That's a bummer for local surfers, since many of the bay's best waves come from North Pacific swells. There's also a wild card in wave prediction. It's called El Niño, which is nearly impossible to forecast over the long term. El Niño conditions bring warm and high waters to the Pacific coast, rolling out a red carpet for strong storms, waves and winds to slam California directly from the southwest. That could improve surf conditions to the Monterey Bay, at least temporarily.  "They hammer the shoreline," Storlazzi said. "But they're the biggest and best waves." If the predictions come true and the Monterey Bay closes the 21st century with poor surfing waves, scientists say the shifting climate and rising seas could create better surfing conditions along other seawall-free stretches of the California coastline -- but there are too many variables to pinpoint where. This mixed and uncertain future may leave some surfers and their supporters grasping for certainty. But others are taking a sage-like perspective. Surfing "is a very experiential or 'now' activity," said surfer Ogilvie. "When waves die in one spot and pick up in another, you move to that spot."

BEST OF THE BLOG:

There's one thing north county is not short of- it's surf spots. Oh- and Mexican restaurants. And well, now grocery stores. Meet the latest addition to the proliferation of markets in the North County Surf Blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever wondered what California looked like before the Starbucks, Chipotles, and grocery stores? This is the real reason the Spaniards built all those missions along the California coast.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Excellence Personified
Travolta's Wingman
Going Streaking At Snapper Tomorrow