I'm starting to get a little freaked out...
SURF:
And I'm not talking about the virus. As long as we do our part, we'll get through this. What I am worried about is that my prophecy seems to be coming true. Am I actually a soothsayer and don't know it? Do I have some sort of magical power that should only be used for good and not evil?! I'm getting ahead of myself.
What I'm trying to say is that the surf the past couple months has either been small or windy or small AND windy (lucky us). So I made a prediction a few weeks ago that once this virus runs its' course, the surf will start firing. So what's been happening the past few days? Well, we finally got some fun SW swell yesterday and building NW windswell today BUT THE WIND HAS BEEN HOWLING. So my prediction is still holding true. Like a perfect March Madness bracket. Or finding a pot of gold? Or raising a unicorn? Not sure I'm still on track but you get the point. Plus, most beaches are closed, so if you do find a spot to surf, it's an absolute ZOO. Not really social distancing at it's finest. Regardless, here's what's on tap for the weekend: The coastal eddy which has been brewing the past few days (and is the strongest I can remember in many a springtime) will stick around through Saturday. Does that mean the virus will be gone by Sunday? NO! Because we have a late season storm arriving Sunday! Of course we do. So more winds from the SW on Sunday to mess up any kind of chest high+ combo swells we have. And if you're interested, here's some numbers to crunch on:
Tides and sun this weekend are:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:32 AM sunrise (if there was clean surf, you could almost paddle out around 6 AM)
- 7:11 PM sunset (if there was clean surf, you could almost paddle in around 7:45 PM)
- Water temps are still hovering around 60 give or take a degree
- And tides are all over the place this weekend:
- 5' at sunrise
- -1' at lunch
- 4' at sunset
FORECAST:
If you've read this far, you must really be desperate. Or you want to find out how the next chapter of the virus/bad surf story goes.
So here it is: We had a good storm off Antarctica last week that is sending us our first real SSW swell of the spring season as well as more NW windswell for head high surf! Will the virus be over by then and we'll have firing surf? NO! The storm I mentioned above on Sunday will blow through Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and POSSIBLY Thursday! So we finally get good surf after months of waiting and it all goes to waste. And what would happen if the storm isn't as bad/windy as forecasted? (Wait for the other shoe to drop...) this storm is also forecasted to drop 2-2.5" of rain! Bam! So If you somehow don't get the virus by surfing with 200 of your closest friends at Trestles, then you will get hepatitis from the dirty water. Sheesh. If things do clean up by next weekend, will the virus be gone then too? Probably not as the surf will also be small. I swear it's a weird coincidence.
Models show the N Pacific going into hibernation and a chance of a small but too S swell possibly arriving around the 14th for shoulder high sets. I'm sure that will get blown to bits too...
BEST BET:
- #stayhome
- #staysafe
WEATHER:
I wasn't kidding when I said this is one of the strongest coastal eddies I can remember in recent memory. Most of the time these eddies will kick up the clouds at the coast and a few miles inland it's sunny. Not this one- the high deserts this morning actually saw low clouds from it. Winds have been strong too- like winter cold front strong- with gusts near 25 at the coast and 50 in the mountains. Good news is that it should run it's course by Saturday. Bad news as I mentioned above, we've got a pretty good late season storm arriving Sunday afternoon and possibly into early Thursday. N County SD should see 2-2.5" of rain, OC 1.5-2", San Bernardino mountains 12-18" of SNOW, and the deserts 1/4-1/2" of rain. Where was this when we needed it back in February?! Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Of course you didn't think the rain was over, did you? Nothing has been normal this rainy season as we got walloped Thanksgiving/December, January/February were almost historically dry (or hysterically depending on who you talk to), and we started to get back on track in March with more rain- just when it should have been winding down. So with the storm next week, where could we end up for rain this season: Here's the latest:
- Newport Beach: 10.02" so far, 84% of normal. Average for the entire season is 13.3"
- Oceanside: 12.48" so far, 105% of normal. Average for the entire season is 13.66"
- San Diego: 9.76" so far, 106% of normal. Average for the entire season is 10.34"
So with 1-1.5" or rain forecasted for the OC next week and 2-2.5" for SD, we're hoping to look like this next weekend:
- Newport Beach: Potentially at 11.5" and around 2" short of it's goal of 13.3"
- Oceanside: Potentially at 15" and around 1.5" over it's goal of 13.66"
- San Diego: Potentially 12.25" and around 2" over it's goal of 10.34"
If that's the case, it would be good to see the OC at least close to it's seasonal average and SD over it. Fill up those reservoirs- I need me a green lawn!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This shot obviously can't be from this past week because:
- It's not onshore.
- There's waves!
- It's uncrowded.
If you do find a spot like this next week, it's the epitome of social distancing. Get out there (if the beach isn't closed that is).
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Smartest Guy In The Room
No One Listens To Dad
Keep Telling Myself I Could Have Been Pro
