THE Surf Report 10/7/11

My head is spinning.

SURF:

What a wild week. Beautiful tropical weather was replaced by rain and wind a few days later. And today we’ve got great fall conditions and a solid combination of swells from the NW and SW. Most locations are head high with the odd overhead set and peaky. Tides are a little whack with a 5’ high tide this morning- beachbreaks may be the call until the tide starts dropping for the reefs. The NW hit it’s peak yesterday morning and will be small tomorrow and pretty flat by Sunday. The SW is hitting it’s peak today and we’ll still have some head high sets tomorrow towards the OC. Sunday looks to be just small SW. All in all should be fun today and tomorrow since we finally have nice conditions and some waves.

Water temps are in the low 60’s now due to the cold front that rolled through and the tides the next few days are about 5’ at 8am, 1’ at 2pm, and back up to 4’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

After the swells peter out this weekend, the Aleutians send a small chest high NW for Monday (shoulder high in south SD) and a better NW for Wednesday for head high/overhead sets in south SD. North county SD will have some shoulder high sets and the OC will be smaller. It’s still looking active out there and we may get more head high NW towards next weekend. Down in the southern hemisphere, things are quieting down but it’s not flat yet. We had a small storm brewing yesterday more towards south America (vs. the ideal New Zealand location) so we may get some small fun S towards next Friday. Probably shoulder high sets in the OC and chest high in far north SD.

And the tropics are trying to make me eat my words- after I recently predicted the hurricane season was unofficially over due to La Nina’s cold water influence AND being so late in the season- we got a fun south last weekend from Hurricane Hilary. And to embarrass me even more, Hurricane Irwin popped up yesterday along with it’s sibling Tropical Storm Jova. Classic! Irwin and Jova though are odd characters- our Aleutian weather systems are steering them the opposite way we need them to go- back into Mexico and away from our swell window. So Irwin now has winds of 80mph and should peak at just over 100mph but is forecasted like I said to go east- away from us. But Irwin is sitting still for a day or two and should send a little chest high+ S for the OC towards Monday. Jova on the other hand only has winds of 50mph now and is also forecasted to go east towards Mainland Mexico- away from us. Jova will also strengthen to 90mph- but only when she’s away from our swell window and headed towards Mexico- so I don’t expect any swell from him up here. Long story short, we should have a little swell next week from the S, SW, and NW with GREAT weather- more on that below…

WEATHER:

After the tropical weather early last week, then an Aleutian cold rainy front mid week, we’re finally on track to get those great fall conditions the chamber of commerce advertises. This morning we have some cool weather (reports of high 40’s/low 50’s were showing up around town- feels like Minnesota around here) but we should warm up to 70 later with sunny skies. Tomorrow through Monday is even more great weather with temps in the mid-70’s. Then high pressure strengthens a little more for mid-week and models are calling for temps near 80 at the beaches. So in summary: the past two weeks we’ve had tropical weather, fog, a cold front with rain, and now beach temps in the 80’s. AND we’re transitioning to a cold water La Nina scenario but we’ve had 3 hurricanes off Baja the past 10 days. Everything is out of whack.

BEST BET:

Today looks to be the day- nice weather and a good SW/NW combo. Can’t complain though for tomorrow, or Monday if that little hurricane S shows up as well as that small NW or even Wednesday in south SD when that fun NW arrives and is greeted by 80 degree beach temps. I can’t make up my mind. This weather has got me out of whack.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

NOAA’s put out there monthly analysis from their National Climatic Data Center and it’s looking hot around here as always. Now considering we’ve only been keeping accurate records since 1880, I don’t know if all the hot weather is attributed to global warming or if we’re just on the opposite end of the last Ice Age. Or maybe the sun is just expanding a few billion years earlier than predicted and will gobble us up next week. (Just kidding on that one- don’t freak out). Regardless, the warming temps aren’t helping drought nor keeping the sea ice from melting. Here’s their report:

The globe had its eighth warmest August since record keeping began in 1880, while June through August was the seventh warmest such period on record. The Arctic sea ice extent was the second smallest for August on record at 28 percent below average. 

Global Temperature Highlights: August

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for August 2011 was the eighth warmest on record at 61.09 F, which is almost 1 degree above the 20th century average of 60.1 F.
•Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.51 F above the 20th century average of 56.9 F, making this the second warmest August on record. Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across most of North America and the northern half of South America, southern Greenland, eastern Russia, Mongolia, most of Europe, northern Africa to Southwest Asia, and southern Australia. Cooler-than-average regions included western Russia, Alaska, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay.
•The August global ocean surface temperature was 0.79 F above the 20th century average of 61.4 F, making it the 12th warmest August on record. The margin of error is +/- 0.07 F (0.04 C). The warmth was most pronounced across the north central, northwest, and south central Pacific Ocean, the north-central Atlantic, and the Labrador Sea.
•Australia’s August 2011 average maximum temperature was the fifth warmest August in its 62-year period of record. The state of Tasmania had its all-time warmest August maximum and minimum temperatures on record.

Global Temperature Highlights: June – August

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for June – August 2011 was the seventh warmest on record at 61.11 F, which is 1.01 F above the 20th century average of 60.1 F.
•Separately, the global land surface temperature was 1.55 F above the 20th century average of 56.9 F, which was the third warmest June – August period on record. Warmer-than-average conditions occurred across Mexico, the eastern two-thirds of the United States and Canada, and most of Europe and Asia. Cooler-than-average regions included southern Alaska, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and northern Australia.
•The June – August global ocean surface temperature was 0.81 F above the 20th century average of 61.5 F, making it the 11th warmest June – August on record. The warmth was most pronounced across the north central, northwest, and south central Pacific, the equatorial north Atlantic, and the Labrador Sea.

Global Temperature Highlights: Year to Date

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January – August period was 0.92 F above the 20th century average of 56.9 F, making it the 11th warmest such period on record.
•The January – August worldwide land surface temperature was 1.40 F above the 20th century average — the seventh warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the year to date was 0.74 F above the 20th century average and was the 11th warmest January-August period on record.

Global significant events for August 2011.

•The average Arctic sea ice extent during August was 28 percent below average, ranking as the second smallest August extent since satellite records began in 1979. The extent was 830,000 square miles below average and 61,800 square miles above the record low August extent set in 2007.
•According to model analysis by the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center, Arctic sea ice volume, which depends on both ice thickness and extent, reached a record low of 1,026 cubic miles on August 31, 2011, breaking the previous lowest volume set on September 15, 2010. The average August 2011 volume was 1,200 cubic miles. This value is 62 percent lower than the 1979–2010 average and 72 percent lower than the maximum in 1979.
•Conversely, the August 2011 Antarctic sea ice extent was 0.08 percent above the 1979–2000 average and was the 14th smallest (20th largest) August extent since records began in 1979.
•The June – August 2011 (Southern Hemisphere winter) was Australia’s first drier-than-normal season since September – November 2009 and was 12 percent below the 1971–2000 average.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

The North County Surf blog if you haven’t noticed is like a salad. You’ve got all kinds of weird stuff going on in there. Maybe you’ll bite into a crouton. Or some spinach. Or that weird red cabbage stuff. Or take a bite of a bleu cheese crumble. Anyway, I’m getting off track here. The point is, there’s a little bit for everyone in there. Like this week’s Surf Check , or an end of summer dvd/sunglass/sweatshirt sale, or some good shots/vids of the boys ripping the warm water Caribbean. Just take your pick in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Man this is a good left. The outside looks like it has some size and a bit of wall to work with . Then you hit the mid section and it starts to hollow out- full stand up barrel- the kind you can put your hands above your head. Then you hit that inside section and WHAM! The thing just bottoms out below sea level and gets all sketchy on the dry reef. Now THAT’S what I’m talking about. And did I mention no one’s out and you get to wear boardies? So good. For more amazing pics, check out the work of Andrew Shields

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Soothsayer
iPhone 4S PR Manager
Long Lost 6^th McNulty Brother