THE Surf Report 12/16/11

I asked Santa for some surf this Christmas.

SURF:

Had a little surf at the beginning of the week and then as usual, it’s been quiet the past couple of days. Today we’ve got a new little NW for knee high waves in north county SD/OC with inconsistent chest high sets in south county SD. South OC isn’t picking up much swell with only knee to waist high waves. The weather is nice now but could turn odd again as we’ve got low pressure over northern Baja and it may wrap some showers our way later tonight or tomorrow.  That low is also giving us some weird cold NNE winds again in the 7mph range this morning. The small NW should hold for the weekend with just small waist high+ waves unfortunately. Look for the biggest surf in south county SD. So don’t expect much this weekend- except some more odd weather. Water temps are definitely feeling like winter around here at a chilly 58 degrees and dropping to a low of 55 this February.

Tides the next few days are around 2’ at sunrise, rising to 4.5’ at 1pm, and down to 1’ at sunset. Keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

Luckily the surf begins to pick back up late Sunday but you may not see much until the sun starts to go down; the peak will be towards Monday lasting into Tuesday. Tuesday will also have a waist high+ SW (bigger in the OC) and that holds into Wednesday. Thursday our next NW fills in and it looks good- more surf than what we’ve had lately. Sets should be head high in north county SD/OC with overhead sets in south SD. South OC will be chest high.

All in all it should be a fun week of surf and charts are showing potentially another small SW for next weekend and good NW again towards Christmas.

WEATHER:

These storms we’ve been having are real odd- none have really come straight west from the Pacific- they kind of form out in the Aleutians, get pushed into British Columbia, then come straight down the coast- ½ of the storm is over the water and the other ½ is over land. So we don’t get a cold front but rather the low pressure center and they’re real cold due to their origins directly north of us (vs. that warm tropical moisture we tap into during El Nino years), and we get these weird NNE winds. Normally the storms come due west from the Pacific and they start off with S winds and a cold front- but not with the storms we’ve had this fall. Today is no exception as we’ve got low pressure above us and NNE winds. And tomorrow night we’re due for another one of these storms. We get a break Sunday and models are showing maybe ANOTHER one for Monday night/Tuesday. Then we get back to normal the 2^nd half of next week with clear cool conditions. And there’s yet another storm on the charts for the Christmas weekend. That would be great- our own version of a white Christmas- albeit wet.

BEST BET:

All kinds of little swells lining up but the best one should be towards Thursday next week- and we should have a break from the little storms so good weather will be on tap for the new swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Recently, scientists from across the state said Californians should expect more extreme storms, flooding, wildfires and species extinctions due to global warming over the rest of the century. Something I’ve been preaching for awhile (like since ‘78). The San Diego Union Tribune reported that crowd of a few hundred researchers, students and residents at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The talks hit familiar themes using recent data to predict what will happen by 2100. Marty Ralph of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Sierra snowpack studies suggest a long-term decline that will create "a profound change for the water supply in California." (i.e. a good year of rain in 2010 and a good start to our season this year doesn’t erase decades of drought). Already, the state struggles to meet demand in dry years, a situation that is likely to worsen as the infrastructure ages. Other research suggests more flooding in places like the Central Valley and elsewhere. Ralph compared the potential fallout from a "megastorm" to Hurricane "Katrina on steroids." (Can’t wait for that one- Highway 101 in Leucadia can’t even handle ½” of rain). Stanford University's Terry Root said species already are moving north and upland in recent years and that trend will likely continue with unpredictable results for ecosystems. "We have to expect a lot of surprises," she said. "We are going to get a lot of extinctions, too." Bart Ostro of the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment detailed the likely increase in medical emergencies as temperatures rise. They include deaths caused directly by heat waves and increased dehydration among children. "We are not talking just about melting glaciers but very significant public health impacts," Ostro said. Tuesday's forum was part of a statewide effort launched by Gov. Jerry Brown to get residents talking about climate change and ways to adapt.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

The holidays are almost here and by now should have gotten all your gifts for the ‘nice’ kids on your list (hint hint- that’s me). There’s a few things at Surfy Surfy I’ve put on hold and you can see them all on the blog this week. And after watching Jordy rip Maui on the Clip of the Day, I’m itchin’ to get a little Hawaiian Holiday before the end of the year. And of course the mid-week Surf Check and a more in-depth THE Surf Report- all of that and more in the blog below! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Considering it’s been cold and windy and rainy and we haven’t had real surf in awhile, I wanted to let you know what the other side of the world is doing right now. More specifically, Down Under. Nothing like a little warm water point break to make you ask Santa for a trip to Austrailia. For more Aussiewonderment (is that a real word?) check out award winning PeterJoli Wilson’s website.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Straight Shooter
Batman
Bodysurfed Mav’s at Night