THE Surf Report 12/30/11

In like a lamb, out like a lion.

SURF:

Not a bad way to end 2011. This past week has had lots of fun shoulder high NW swell with a touch of off and on SW. Conditions have been great also with sunny skies and light winds. Most everywhere has had surf and most everyone has taken a day off here and there for the holidays so there’s been lots of wave riding going on.

Today we’ve got a continuation of the NW swell and some background SW too. Most beaches are chest high with shoulder high sets at best spots in south SD. Unfortunately there is a cold front moving through Nor-Cal today and it’s kicked up a bit of fog on our immediate coast. Models have the fog maybe sticking around the beaches today and tomorrow morning so it may be hard to see the sets! Back to the surf though, our current NW will build slightly tonight for shoulder high sets Saturday around town/north OC and head high waves in south county SD. South OC will have leftover SW swell and smaller island shadowed NW for chest high waves. By Sunday both swells fade for chest high sets in SD/north OC and waist high+ waves in south SD. Monday (if you have the holiday off) should be in the waist high range from most everyone. Long story short, looks like fun surf today and tomorrow so get on it before it dies off Sunday/Monday. Hopefully Santa brought you a new 4/3 as the water temps are freezing at 57 degrees AND the air temps are 40 during the dawn patrol.

The tides the next few days are pretty mellow: 2’ at sunrise, going up slightly to 4’ at lunch, and down to 1’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

After the swells drop off late in the weekend, we’ve got a good NW lining up for Tuesday morning with head high sets in north OC/SD, overhead sets in south SD, and chest high waves in south OC. That backs off Wednesday and then the charts have some wishful thinking; models show a solid storm out in the Aleutians with 40’+ swell forecasted.

By the time it reaches us, the models then show 15’ groundswell for our beaches which will result in 20’+ surf at best south county SD spots. It’s been awhile since we’ve had 20’+ surf (other than the Wedge this summer) so I’m a little skeptical. BUT… it is winter and a big storm every so often isn’t out of the question. We should have a good idea towards Tuesday on what the storm is doing- so if we see 40’ readings in the Aleutians, we may see some double to triple overhead surf around here late next week. Guess we’ll have to wait and find out.

WEATHER:

That pesky fog is hanging around the beaches today and may not break up along the immediate coast. There’s also a little south wind and the fun NW/SW combo that is out there is looking gloomy. Good news is that by tomorrow afternoon high pressure takes control again and we should have great weather for the New Year holiday. Sunday and Monday are forecasted to be mid to high 70’s at the beaches. Models are trying to show a couple weak fronts moving through the area- the first on Monday night and a stronger one towards Thursday. If the Thursday one holds we may get a shot at showers. Not out of the question since we’ve had so much good weather lately- we’ve got to get rain sooner or later- right?

BEST BET:

Tough call here. We’ve got peaking NW tomorrow but the fog at the beaches may hang around. Or a big NW next Thursday but the weather may turn a little sour (typical). So I’m claiming Tuesday is the day- fun head high NW swell and good weather.

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

After a great October and November for rain, we’ve gone almost completely dry for December. Since the start of the rainy season (July 1^st to today) we’ve had 4.57” of rain- 143% of normal. And most of that came in October and November. December on the other hand we’ve only had 0.86” of rain- and that fell the first week of the month. So the last 3 weeks we’ve had nothing! And with beach temps around 70 and low humidities, the end of 2011 has looked more like summer around here (you think the Rose Parade is complaining? Why do you think everyone moves to California)?! As mentioned above though, charts are showing a chance of showers for the 2^nd half of the week so I hope we start 2012 on the right foot. Are the La Nina predictions of a dry winter coming to fruition? Hope not. My lawn needs a watering.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Now that the holidays are almost over and you’ve gotten a bounty of cash from the relatives for your Xmas present (what- you got a tie and cologne instead? Sorry to hear that), you should probably pick up a little something for yourself. The North County Surf Blog has come across some mid-winter O’Neill wetsuit deals, cheap Channel Islands Surfboards (new ones might I add), Creature of Leisure traction pads on sale, and an inexpensive Da Kine travel bag to carry all your junk in- especially since there’s been a sewage spill in Cardiff and you’re going to have to travel to find surf (you can read about the spill in the blog too). And of course the mid-week Surf Check and a more in-depth THE Surf Report- all of that and more in the blog below! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Considering it’s been nippy around here lately, the last place you’d think of a surf trip this time of year is merry ol’ England. But with firing surf like this, no crowd, and 5/4/3 fullsuits feeling like 3/2’s now, I’m packing my bags tonight (especially since I just loaded up on new Channel Islands boards, an O’Neill fullsuit, Creatures of Leisure pads, and Da Kine travel bag I picked up on the North County Surf Blog. Sorry- shameless plug there…). Make sure to get Magic Seaweed’s full story on this wave here.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Certifiably Insane
Times Square Reveler
Fall Somewhere Between Michelangelo’s David and the Cardiff Kook