Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Surf Check 5/22/12



Interesting pattern the next few days. Let's start with today though. We have a little more NW windswell in the water with a touch of tiny SW swell.

Surf is mostly waist high around town with the odd chest high set. Skies are trying to clear up with only partial clearing at some beaches. Water is a comfortable 67 degrees and the wind is SW at 8.

Tides are pretty mellow the next few days with a -1' at sunrise, 3.5' mid-day, down slightly to 2' late afternoon, and back to 4' at sunset.

Now on to the interesting part. We have a late season cold front moving down the coast and will slide into southern California tomorrow. The bulk of the storm is mostly over land as it dives south towards us so no real rain to speak of- just a thick marine layer Wednesday/Thursday and sprinkles Friday and air temps in the low to mid-60's- but long story short, we'll have lots of wind in our outer waters kicking up a solid NW windswell.

The amazing part is that models show the wind blowing up to 50mph for late today into Friday morning- that's 3 days of tropical storm force winds blowing for an extended period of time. Models show a 15-18' windswell building off Point Conception and outside our islands. Now we won't get a bombing swell from it since it's short period windswell and will have a hard time filtering through our islands AND it's coming from due N, but we should have some head high waves by Thursday and overhead sets in south county SD. Once the front moves through we'll having clearing cool skies on Saturday and dropping swell. By Sunday and Monday the swell is gone but we'll have clear skies and temps near 70.
And if that wasn't interesting enough, we've got the 2nd named tropical storm of the season- and we're just 1 week into it! Tropical Storm Bud is pretty meager right now with 40mph winds but will increase to maybe a minimal hurricane by Thursday. Unfortunately Bud is forecasted to head to mainland Mexico so we won't see any surf. Maybe Cabo will get some head high sets this weekend but that's about it.

The funny thing is that the southern hemisphere should be active right now as it's the peak season for storms down there. But it's been quiet while the normally dormant north Pacific and eastern Pacific are ripe with activity. Looks like some storms are due to flaire up down there this weekend and we'll see some resulting swell towards the first weekend of June. Keep your fingers crossed!