Friday, May 4, 2012

THE Surf Report 5/4/12


Conga line.

SURF:
Kind of a fun week for surf. The weather was ugly early on but once the sun came out Wednesday afternoon, the little SW swell looked appealing.

Today we have more little SW swell for chest high sets in far north county SD and shoulder high sets in the OC. Skies should clear out earlier than they have been the last few days and it's looking like a fun surf day if you can sneak out of work early. For tomorrow, the little SW hangs around and the NW windswell picks up. Looks like the weather cooperates too. Keep your fingers crossed we have shoulder high combo sets and nice weather. And if that wasn't fun enough, Sunday looks to be the same. Nothing major this weekend but should be some fun rideable surf and nice spring weather. Water will even cooperate and hover in the 64 degree range. Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, 4.5' at 9am, then dropping to 0' mid-afternoon, and back up to 6' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather this weekend at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After the fun surf weekend, we have another little reinforcement from the SW on Tuesday while the NW windswell backs off.

The southern hemisphere looks like it's starting to come to life with some good activity this weekend and holding for a few days so we may get an overhead SW swell towards next weekend.

The NW windswell is also forecasted to kick back into gear too. Long story short, look for a little SW swell to start the work week, not much the 2nd half of the week, and better SW/NW for next weekend!
 
WEATHER:

Spring is in control with low clouds and fog in the mornings followed up by cool sunshine in the afternoons. High pressure is forecasted to strengthen Sunday and early next week for more sunny skies and temps in the high 60's. High pressure may weaken late next week for more extensive low clouds/fog and only partial afternoon clearing at the beaches.

BEST BET:
This weekend looks pretty fun with the SW/NW combo and nice weather. Nothing big but there should be surf most everywhere. Next weekend is looking even better with a slightly bigger SW on tap and more NW windswell- hopefully it won't be socked in by low clouds and fog though- and the dreaded S eddy wind. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So what's the latest with the current La Nina? As you know, La Nina usually brings drier than normal conditions to Southern California as well as pushing the storm track further north so we don't get a lot of big burly NW swells around here. La Nina also tends to bring cooler ocean temps which results in more overcast skies in the summer (ugh) and the cooler air and ocean temps means less of a chance of wearing trunks (ugh x 2). The cooler ocean temps of course mean less of a chance of hurricanes headed our way which means less of a chance of hurricane surf directly aimed at us (ugh x 3). Luckily for us, the climatology maps are showing our current La Nina has faded over April and we're in a neutral state (i.e. normal weather). That should last through the summer. So not really a blockbuster forecast with a neutral state in place, but we should at least have typical summer weather (i.e. sunny skies by July), pleasant water temps (maybe 70 degrees by mid-July and peaking at 73 by August), and a 50/50 chance of having a few good hurricane swells this summer. So once we're done with this 'neutral' state, what's next? La Nina or El Nino? Current forecasts are for a mild El Nino next winter. Now before you get all excited about El Nino, notice I said 'mild'. I'm hoping for our pleasant water temps to hold to at least October, some great weather during our Indian Summer season, and maybe a chance for normal rainfall or slightly above normal rainfall next winter. And yes, maybe a big swell or two next winter. Wouldn't that be nice- a chance to ride a board over 6'6" this winter. But of course a lot can happen between now and then but at least the current La Nina looks dead in the water.
 
BEST OF THE BLOG:

Been wondering what all the hype is about with the small shortboard craze and the buzz word 'volume'? Wondering if you should get a 5'6" shortboard for your summer quiver? We'll the North County Surf blog has got the answers (or attempts to) with a few boards to look at on the site this week- and the local shops that carry them. And of course the mid-week Surf Check and a more in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Can't you just picture yourself right now in this photo? Got your trusty 6'4" rounded pin beneath you, a pair of trunks tied up extra tight, some tropical wax in your pocket, and your paddling behind the peak to backdoor this thing. Oh momma. So good. For more pics to get your adrenaline pumping, check out World Surfaris.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
All Business
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Heir to Davey/Pottz/Christian/Dane's Air Throne