Hold it now. Again.
SURF:
Had some fun little SW mid-week and the weather cooperated. Nothing major but some chest high+ waves, afternoon sunshine, and minimal crowds. Today we have a weak little front moving through central CA and it's kicked up the low clouds and S wind this morning.
There's some new NW windswell in the water and leftover SW for waist high+ waves with chest high sets in south SD (from the NW) and north OC (from the SW). The S wind though is making it look a little funky. Good news is that there is some more small background SW swell filling in tomorrow as well as some more NW windswell. Nothing big but we should have chest high sets tomorrow AND the weather should clean up. Should be a fun little surf day tomorrow and hopefully into Sunday morning.
Water is hovering around 64 and tides next few days are 2' at sunrise, 4' mid-morning, 1' mid-afternoon, and almost 6' at 8pm. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at
Twitter/North County Surf!
FORECAST:
Nothing really exciting on tap for next week. Just some background SW swell for chest high sets in the OC towards Tuesday and again next Friday. Models though do show some activity under Australia late next week that I hope holds together and forms into a swell in our window. Best case for us though would be a good SW 2 weeks out. Ouch.
The north Pacific has essentially shut down for the season and all we're left with is NW windswell from central CA; next round looks to be Wednesday.
And if you haven't heard, we had our first named storm off Mexico this week- tropical storm Aletta. Pretty small with only 40mph winds and it's dead now- but it's a good start. There's also some activity behind Aletta but it's slow to develop and I don't expect it to generate surf for us.
WEATHER:
Not exactly summer yet and winter doesn't want to go completely away. So we're left with... spring I guess? We've had a weak cold front move through central CA and we were stuck with S winds this morning and some stubborn low clouds today. High pressure though builds in behind it and we've got nice mild weather for the weekend. Late Monday of next week we have another weak cold front moving through central CA and it will deepen our marine layer and give us cool temps again. Then again the clouds clear out mid-week and we have nice cool weather again. AND THEN AGAIN another weak front passes by to the north next weekend and we'll have more low clouds and cooler temps again. When will these weak fronts end?!
BEST BET:
Nothing too exciting but tomorrow may be fun with a small SW and NW and better weather.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Considering we just had our 1st named tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific (no need to get excited, Tropical Storm Aletta only winds of 40mph and is dead now), I thought it would be interesting to look at some historical data for past storms in the region. Keep in mind, we may have a low grade El Nino forming this summer so that will only enhance the chances of storms forming this summer. As well as warmer water temps for us, less clouds at the beach, and maybe a few more monsoonal type clouds overhead. So that's a good thing. So here's some info you might find useful when anticipating your summer sessions:
-Between 1971 to 2009, the average number of named storms is 15.3. Out of that number, 8.5 usually become hurricanes. And out of the 15.3 total, 3.8 become category 3 or greater hurricanes (winds over 155 mph).
-For a swell to be produced, you need the wind to blow in your direction, the winds to blow over a large area, and the winds to blow for a long time. In regards to the almost 9 hurricanes on average, only about 1/3 head north for any solid surf aimed at us. The other 1/3 head north west and we'll get some little waves- best bet is to head to the OC to see these swells. And the remaining 1/3 head due west away from us for no real surf on our shores
-Tropical Storm Aletta was named May 14th but on average the 1st named storm occurs June 10th. I'm not claiming we're off to an fast start but at least it's an early beginning. The 1st hurricane usually occurs June 26th. And the first big category 3 storm usually occurs July 19th. What's interesting is that the 2nd named category 3 storm usually occurs a month later on August 19th on average, and the 3rd category 3 storm occurs a month after that on average- September 20th. Odd how they seem to space themselves apart exactly 4 weeks after each other. The last named storm of the season (the 15th storm as mentioned above) amazingly occurs on average on November 5th. That's just 3 1/2 weeks from December- not really what I equate to 'summer' hurricane season.
-The eastern Pacific hurricane season starts May 15th on average (yet Aletta started on a day early on May 14th) and usually ends November 30th.
-Since last summer was a La Nina year (i.e. not the warmest water temps/air temps, and the low clouds hung at the beaches a little longer), we only had 11 named storms last year (in comparison to 15.3 on average). And there was only 1 category 3 storm (when the average is 3). With the looming weak El Nino, the El Nino seasonal averages tend to be 16.8 named storms, 9.8 becoming hurricanes, and 5.2 becoming major hurricanes. What does that mean for this summer? Since we have a weak El Nino forming, I'd assume 16 named storms (vs. 15.3 on average and only 11 with last year's La Nina), maybe 7-8 becoming hurricanes (vs. 9 on average and last year's anomaly of 10 becoming hurricanes- meaning that out of the 11 storms that formed last year, 10 became hurricanes- that's a .900 batting average- pretty lucky), and 4 becoming major hurricanes (vs. 3 on average and only 1 last year).
All in all we should have an ok hurricane season. Nothing amazing but a little more storms on average and maybe an extra major hurricane or two. If you spread that out over the months June to October, hopefully every 3 weeks we'll get a hurricane swell and one of those we'll get a major swell monthly. Throw in the usual southern hemisphere swells and the semi-consistent windswell off central CA and our outer waters, and we should have a fun summer...
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Got more deals to kick start your summer into high gear with dirt cheap headphones, tail pads, back packs, and shades. Also got a good video on power surfing legend Taylor Knox. And of course the mid-week Surf Check and a more in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Nothing special. Just some empty little left point with 1 lucky stiff out. Damn that looks fun right now.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Life of the Party
NBA's 7th Man Of The Year
Last Surfer On Earth Using a Front Foot Traction Pad
