THE Surf Report 10/18/12

It was fun while it lasted.

SURF:
Fun SW/NW this week and great weather was replaced by the remnants of Hurricane Paul today and weak low pressure. Any small fun surf we had out there was blown to bits early by 15mph S winds today.

For tomorrow and the weekend- we're left with small waist high+ SW/NW and more gloomy conditions as the weak low pressure sets up shop over us for at least the next 5 days. So expect small but rideable swell this weekend and overcast conditions. I guess we can all use a rest and catch up on that yard work.

Water temps are hovering in the high 60's and tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, 6' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf!

FORECAST:

Nothing really on the radar. Mostly NW windswell is on tap every few days next week (maybe chest high late Sunday in SD and again towards next weekend- in between just waist high leftovers). There's also a weak storm on the chart above trying to take shape mid-week which may give us chest high NW next weekend too.

And the southern hemisphere did a little burp a few days ago which may give us chest high SW swell late Tuesday into Wednesday. All the while the weather is looking kind of gloomy. Nothing too exciting to report. Don't shoot the messenger!

WEATHER:

Looks like our fantastic weather is coming to an end. No real storms on the horizon but weak low pressure is going to set up shop this weekend for overcast conditions and temps in the high 60's. The clouds may not even break up at the coast during the afternoons. Looking kind of ugly. Maybe a little drizzle too. Unfortunately it may stick around most of next week too. Ugh.

BEST BET:
Nothing too exciting on the radar but a little bump in SW towards Tuesday and some NW windswell to cross it up. Wish the weather would cooperate!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Seems like our El Nino is camera shy. It was supposed to kick-in late summer, then scientists said by September, and now the latest forecast is looking downright dismal; we may not even get one at all this winter! Ouch. Here's the latest from NOAA today:

The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md. Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years. “This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge. Other climate factors can influence winter weather across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent climate pattern, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the winter outlook in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country. Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.

In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
 •Warmer-than-average temperatures in much of Texas, northward through the Central and Northern Plains and westward across the Southwest, the Northern Rockies, and eastern Washington, Oregon and California, as well as the northern two-thirds of Alaska.
•Cooler-than-average temperatures in Hawaii and in most of Florida, excluding the panhandle.
•Drier-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
•Drier-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
•Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category (which means southern California), meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Nothing fancy. Just some lines running down the point. Enjoy.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Swashbuckling
Pseudo Celebrity
Training Bryce Ellis for his Comeback