SURF:
Whether it be the good weather, the 70 degree water temps, or fun SW swell- all 3 lasted for at least a week. Today we're starting to transition to a more fall like pattern as the clouds hang around longer, air temps cool down, and the SW drops slightly from it's peak earlier in the week. Still had fun chest high waves around town today with head high sets in the OC. Unfortunately the W wind blew most of the day and air temps were in the low to mid 70's. The SW will hang around through the first part of the weekend and Sunday will be kind of a boring day around here- not much SW, NW, or sunshine (more on that below). It was fun while it lasted.
FORECAST:
After the SW winds down this weekend, we basically have small NW windswell to rely on the next few days. Charts show the Aleutians coming to life early next week and we should have a fun chest high W swell towards Thursday with head high sets in south SD.
WEATHER:
Fall is finally making it's presence felt with cooler temps around here, a little afternoon breeze from the W, and the low clouds/fog are hanging around longer during the day. Look for all 3 of these symptoms to increase slightly the next few days and by Tuesday- we have a shot of showers. Not tropical 'monsoon' showers like we had last month- but real fall showers from the north Pacific. Air temps on Tuesday will even be in the low 60's. And I'm not talking about the middle of the night either- middle of the day type stuff. Snow level in the San Bernardino Mountains are also supposed to get a dusting around 9,000 feet. Fall is finally here.
BEST BET:
Hard to say. Pleasant weather tomorrow and some fun SW swell. Or a fun NW next Thursday but cool weather. Or here's hoping high pressure builds next weekend just in time for a new fun SW. Decisions, decisions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I’m sure you’ve heard of The Weather Channel- that non-profit scientific organization, err, the advertising supported cable channel owned by NBC. Don’t get me wrong, they do a good job of reporting the weather (you gotta love watching Jim Cantore over the years get blown to bits during those live shots in a hurricane), but reporting on the same weather over and over and over again leaves something to be desired. So leave it to them to find new ways of generating interest- in this case naming storms. Oh sure NOAA’s got a lock on the hurricane naming thing- so The Weather Channel has decided to name WINTER storms instead. Heck- no one’s patented that yet, right? Why the heck not. Here’s their reasoning straight from the horse’s mouth:
“During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms. Our goal is to better communicate the threat and the timing of the significant impacts that accompany these events. The fact is, a storm with a name is easier to follow, which will mean fewer surprises and more preparation. Hurricanes and tropical storms have been given names since the 1940s. In the late 1800s, tropical systems near Australia were named as well. Weather systems, including winter storms, have been named in Europe since the 1950s. Important dividends have resulted from attaching names to these storms:
•Naming a storm raises awareness.
•Attaching a name makes it much easier to follow a weather system’s progress.
•A storm with a name takes on a personality all its own, which adds to awareness.
•In today’s social media world, a name makes it much easier to reference in communication.
•A named storm is easier to remember and refer to in the future.
The question then begs to ask “Why aren’t winter storms named?” In fact, in Europe the naming of weather systems has been going on for a long time. Here in the U.S., summer time storms including thunderstorms and tornadoes occur on such a small time and space scale that there would be little benefit and much confusion trying to attach names to them. However, winter weather is different. Winter storms occur on a time and space scale that is similar to tropical systems.
In fact, historically many major winter storms have been named during or after the event has occurred. Examples include “The President’s Day Storm” and “Snowmageddon.” Yet, until now, there has been no organized naming system for these storms before they impact population centers. One of the reasons this may be true is that there is no national center, such as the National Hurricane Center, to coordinate and communicate information on a multi-state scale to cover such big events. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Hydrologic Prediction Center (HPC) does issue discussions and snowfall forecasts on a national scale but it does not fill the same role as the NHC in naming storms. Therefore, it would be a great benefit for a partner in the weather industry to take on the responsibility of developing a new concept.
This is where a world-class organization (don’t snicker at the P.R. here) such as The Weather Channel will play a significant role. We have the meteorological ability, support and technology to provide the same level of reporting for winter storms that we have done for years with tropical weather systems.
In addition to providing information about significant winter storms by referring to them by name, the name itself will make communication and information sharing in the constantly expanding world of social media much easier. As an example, hash tagging a storm based on its name will provide a one-stop shop to exchange all of the latest information on the impending high-impact weather system.
There will be many differences from the “tropical model” for naming winter storms. Unlike tropical systems, winter weather takes place at latitudes under extreme energy and forcing from the atmosphere.
Often a weather system that is expected to strike a metropolitan area three days from now has not even completely formed in the atmosphere. Therefore, naming of winter storms will be limited to no more than three days before impact to ensure there is moderate to strong confidence the system will produce significant effects on a populated area. In addition, the impacts from winter systems are not as simple to quantify as tropical systems where a system is named once the winds exceed a certain threshold.
The process for naming a winter storm will reflect a more complete assessment of several variables that combine to produce disruptive impacts including snowfall, ice, wind and temperature. In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.
This is an ambitious project. However, the benefits will be significant. Naming winter storms will raise the awareness of the public, which will lead to more pro-active efforts to plan ahead, resulting in less impact and inconvenience overall.
Coordination and information sharing should improve between government organizations as well as the media, leading to less ambiguity and confusion when assessing big storms that affect multiple states. It will even make it easier and more efficient for social media to communicate information regarding the storm resulting in a better informed public. And, on the occasion that different storms are affecting separate parts of the country, naming storms will allow for clearer communications.
Finally, it might even be fun and entertaining and that in itself should breed interest from our viewing public and our digital users. For all of these reasons, the time is right to introduce this concept for the winter season of 2012-13.
So without further adieu, here’s the ‘official’ names (says The Weather Channel) of the upcoming winter storms:
• Athena: The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful.
• Brutus: Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius Caesar.
• Caesar: Title used by Roman and Byzantine emperors.
• Draco: The first legislator of Athens in Ancient Greece.
• Euclid: A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the father of geometry.
• Freyr: A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things.
• Gandolf: A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside.
• Helen: In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus.
• Iago: Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello.
• Jove: The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.
• Khan: Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol empire.
• Luna: The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology.
• Magnus: The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus.
• Nemo: A Greek boy’s name meaning "from the valley," means "nobody" in Latin.
• Orko: The thunder god in Basque mythology.
• Plato: Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach.
• Q: The Broadway Express subway line in New York City.
• Rocky: A single mountain in the Rockies.
• Saturn: Roman god of time, also the namesake of the planet Saturn in our solar system.
• Triton: In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon.
• Ukko: In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather.
• Virgil: One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets.
• Walda: Name from Old German meaning “ruler.”
• Xerxes: The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great.
• Yogi: People who do yoga.
• Zeus: In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Australia's got it all- lots of sunshine, heaps of good surfers, Victoria Bitter on tap, plenty of Shelia's on the beach, and underexposed left handers- until now. Check out the blog for an amazingly rippable left that Ace, Wilko, and a few of their mates have to themselves. That and the mid-week Surf Check and in-depth THE Surf Report all of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
What I love about this picture is that it isn't your typical line up shot seen head on. But rather it feels like you parked your car off to the side of the road, hoofed it down a dirt road for 20 minutes lugging your 3/2, board, towel, and back pack, and then you stumble upon... this. One point firing down the line and if you can race around the inside point- another 1/4 mile to go. Legs like jello. Only a surfer knows the feeling (I actually coined that phrase- my lawyers will be contacting Billabong). For more great shots of the southern hemisphere, check out Sean Davey's work here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Wild Child
Puppeteer
Staunch Like Strauch
