Surf Check

Not much out there today except for sunny skies and small combo surf.

We've got waist high waves from some NW windswell and S tropical swell from former Hurricane Rachel.

Water temps are 68 degrees (summer seems to on it's way out- don't expect 75 degrees again until at least next summer) and the tides are about 3' at sunrise, up to 5' mid-afternoon, and down to 2' at sunset.

Our weather as advertised is fantastic today. Not a cloud in sight and temps running in the mid-high 70's. High pressure is setting up shop and we're only going to get warmer. By Saturday we're peaking with temps close to 90 at the beach and light winds- maybe even slight offshore. As it stands now this should not be a strong 'Santa Ana' wind event like the devastating fires in May but it's still a little too warm for my liking. Early next week we should see a return of the night/morning low clouds and cooler temps.

As far as the surf goes, we had a storm last week off Antarctica that was fairly broad and lasted a few days. We should see some chest high waves tomorrow afternoon from a SW direction then head high waves on Thursday and peaking overhead sets by late Friday. The swell will start to taper off by Sunday.

We also have some NW windswell showing up late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Nothing big, but it will help peak up the building SW swell. And did I mention we've got warm sunny skies on tap too?

Charts also show our next storm in the eastern Pacific 'Simon' coming together. Models don't show it being a big storm (but they were also wrong about Marie) and if we get anything, the OC may see some waist high S swell from it early next week.

Further out, charts show more storms in the southern hemisphere and we may get more SW swell around the 12th of October- but I'm just focused on the good weather/waves coming for later this week!

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I can see summer in my rearview mirror.

SURF:
And just like that, summer is over. Or it least it feels that way.

Not much surf the past few days- and cooler weather to boot- and it feels like we're in a transition period. Good news is that we've had some building NW groundswell today for chest high sets in town and head high sets in SD. Just like you expected for the first few days of fall. Tomorrow is more of the same then the groundswell backs off and NW windswell fills in.

Look for the windswell to hit more spots on Saturday/Sunday in north county SD as we get head high sets and the same for south SD. Not much for the OC unfortunately- but hey- Hurricane Marie was a grand slam for you guys so no complaining for a few months. We also have a weak cold front moving through late tomorrow into Saturday, so beware the W winds and overcast conditions!

Tides the next few days are around 2' at sunrise, up to 5.5' before lunch, and down to 1' before sunset. And our water temps are just barely hanging out at 70 degrees. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

After the NW groundswell/windswell combo this weekend, tropical storm Rachel tries to get in the mix but she unfortunately is only forecasted to make it as a maximum strength tropical storm with 70mph winds. Pretty strong if it's right on top of you- but not much of a swell maker when you're 1,000 miles away. Rachel should hit our swell window on Saturday then her meager little swell may lap on our shores on Monday for waist high waves- maybe some chest high waves in the OC.

We then have a good SW ground swell moving up the Pacific today that will start to build late Tuesday. The real meat of the swell starts to arrive a couple days later though on the 2nd of October.

Look for the surf to start out in the chest high range on the 30th and hit head high on the 2nd. The OC may see a couple bigger sets.

 

Charts then show another round of NW windswell mid-week and chest high NW groundswell arriving late next week AND then more good SW is on the charts towards the 11th if the models hold true. All in all some S tropical swell, SW groundswell, NW windswell, and NW groundswell in the forecast. Whew! My hands are tired from typing. Make sure to check back on Tuesday for a Surf Check in the blog below to see the latest on these developing storms.

WEATHER:

Fall is definitely here as we've had cool weather all week, off and on low clouds, and cooler water temps (cooler being a relative term as you can still trunk it mid-day). But I'm getting off track. We do have a cold front moving through tomorrow that will kick up the low clouds Friday night for a chance- wait for it- of drizzle. Yes- the poor stepchild of rain. That moves through Saturday and we have breezy W winds. Sunday to Wednesday are transition days as weak high pressure starts to build, then we should have sunny skies and warm air temps late next week.

BEST BET:
Lots of surf on tap but the combo NW/SW next week AND great weather is the call for Wednesday-Friday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I know I’ve been jumping the gun with all this El Nino talk the past 6 months (ok, it’s been like a year now), but before we get ahead of ourselves and think the expected El Nino this winter will cure our water shortage, where do we stand today? According to the National Oceanic  and Atmospheric Administration, record warmth occurred from January to August, and September 2013 to August 2014 received much below average precipitation (third year in a row) and is the second driest in California since 1976-77. The outlook for the end of summer 2014 predicts warmer than normal conditions with periods of active monsoon thunderstorms in the interior deserts and mountains. Due to the ongoing drought, the fire danger is much above normal across most of California. Across the equatorial Pacific Ocean average sea surface temperatures, currently neutral, are expected to warm into an El Nino state this fall. However, it is uncertain to how much impact this may have in 2014-15 winter wet season. Historically, several El Nino winters have brought normal and below normal precipitation. Only the strong phase of the El Nino has been the most consistent with above normal precipitation for southern California. Currently, state water supply is 35 to 45 percent of capacity (half of historical average) and snow melt runoff and recharge was very little this spring due to historical low snowpack. The diminishing water supply combined with the below normal precipitation this past year, and the past 3 years combined being the driest on record, have all led to the extreme drought conditions. In general, California would need about 150 percent of average for the rainy season (October to April) in order to significantly reduce the drought (long term precipitation deficits) and raise the low water supply in reservoirs and bring soil moisture to near normal levels.

So that’s not good. What about all the El Nino influenced tropical moisture we’ve had this summer? Well, it’s been helpful to some places and negligible in others. Current readings for spots around southern California (since July 1st- the start of the rainy season) are:

• Riverside = 0.37”, 109% of normal
• LAX = 0.19”, 86% of normal
• Newport Beach = $0.03”, 13% of normal
• Palm Springs = 1.19”, 128% of normal
• Oceanside = 0.14”, 29% of normal
• San Diego = 0.08”, 53% of normal

And the grand prize winner…
• Campo = 2.03”, 156% of normal. Which doesn't do us any good out here on the coast.

I always like to see how active the fall is with the strength of weather systems moving through early in the season and then how they may relate to the winter. I’ve noticed over the years that if the cold ronts start early- like getting a couple good storms in October, then it leaves the door wide open for the real storms from December to March. So keep your eyes on the sky next month and see if that expected El Nino walks through the front door…
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Get out of the way! It's barreling towards you! Don't take your eye off it or you may get stream rolled! For more great pics to get your butt in gear and paddling towards the channel, check out Andrew Shields work down under.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Dreamboat
Already Camped Outside Apple For The iPhone 7
King of Surf Guitar

Surf Check

 

Fall is officially here. We’ve got cloudy conditions, cool temperatures, a cold front on the way, and solid NW swell on the horizon.

But let’s take a look at today first. The excitement we’ve had out in the surf the past month from Hurricane Marie, tropical clouds overhead, and good NW/SW combo has been replaced by low clouds today, small waist high combo surf, and empty line-ups.  Water temps are still holding though at 70 thanks to the pseudo El Nino.

 

Our weather doesn’t do much better the next few days as we have weak high pressure trying to set up tomorrow for slightly sunnier skies and air temps in the low 70’s. An early season storm then takes aim at Northern California later this week and it will kick up our clouds down here again for cool temps and overcast skies. Summer is officially over. High pressure may return early next week for more mild temps and sunnier skies then the next cold front takes aim at California later next week for more clouds and cooler temperatures down here.

 

As advertised above, our water temps are doing well for late September- low 70’s- and the tides the next few days are 3’ at sunrise, 5’ mid-morning, down to 1’ around 3pm, and back up to 3’ at sunset.

 

So what’s going on the next few days in the surf world? Plenty. First up is some NW groundswell from the storm mentioned above. That starts to arrive on Thursday evening with shoulder high sets in north county SD and overhead sets in south SD. As the weak cold front moves through on Saturday, NW winds in our outer waters will kick up more shoulder high NW windswell here and head high+ for SD.

 

On its heels, models show tropical storm Rachel trying to take shape the next few days. Its forecast track will move up and offshore of the Baja Peninsula and into our window this weekend as a hurricane. If that’s the case, we may get some fun chest high S swell towards Sunday/Monday but it may be hard to see from all the NW windswell on top of it.

 

After that we have a late season SW groundswell headed our way from a storm building today in the southern hemisphere. Look for chest high waves around the 30^th and peaking head high waves on the 2^nd. The OC will see some slightly bigger sets.

 

It then rebuilds a couple days later and we get more head high+ waves on the 3^rd/4^th with the OC being a few feet overhead. Who says they don’t believe in reincarnation?!

All in all some fall type weather the next week as well as every type of swell imaginable- NW windswell, SW groundswell, NW groundswell, and S hurricane swell (if we’re lucky)!



THE Surf Report

Fall is knocking on my door.

SURF:

Great surf and even better weather this week has led to smaller waves today and overcast conditions. We've got leftover SW in the water with holding NW for chest high waves. The OC has a couple bigger sets from the SW and south SD has a couple bigger waves from the NW. We also have a weak cold front moving through today- pretty early for late summer- and the wind is already blowing from the NW at 5. Both swells back off tomorrow for waist high waves with chest high sets.

Late Sunday we have some small NW groundswell fill in again for waist high waves here and chest high waves in SD. Water temps are holding in the high 60's/low 70's and may drop this weekend due to the WNW wind the past few days.

Tides the next few days are around 4' at sunrise, down to 2' after lunch, and back up to 5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a small weekend of surf, the first part of next week isn't looking good.

Hurricane Polo is still stuck under Baja so the peninsula is blocking it's swell for us. As Polo moves into our window- it dies.

We do though have a solid NW on the charts for late next week- right on time for fall. Is this an early sign for our 'El Nino' winter?! Look for the NW to start increasing on Friday with overhead sets here and some 10' sets in SD- if the models hold up.

Further out, charts show a good storm in the southern hemisphere this weekend which should give us overhead sets from the SW around the 30th. Long story short- not looking too good in the near future but plenty good in about a week. Make sure to check back on Tuesday for a Surf Check on the North County Surf blog.

WEATHER:

Fall came early yesterday as a weak cold front came down from central California. Temps dropped about 20 degrees from Tuesday's high of 95 to yesterday's 75. The low clouds and cool temps will stick around this weekend unfortunately (or fortunately if you didn't like the heat) but we'll be back to sunny skies and temps in the high 70's early next week. Models then show another cold front moving through late next week for cooler temps again and more clouds.

BEST BET:
Depends on where you live: Next Friday for SD with the solid NW or the end of the month for the OC with that forthcoming SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

By now you’ve probably heard our upcoming ‘strong’ El Nino has been downgraded to moderate or even (gasp) weak. Regardless, we still should have above average rain this winter, large surf, and a few nasty storms to blow over a few trees. If this El Nino does pan out this winter, are we going to have to wait another 20 year for the next one? A report earlier this year said that extreme weather events fueled by unusually strong El Ninos, such as the 1983 heatwave that led to the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Australia and the destruction of southern California beach property, are likely to double in number as our planet warms. An international team of scientists from organizations including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA) and CSIRO, published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change. "We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years," said co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of CoECSS. "El Nino events are a multi-dimensional problem, and only now are we starting to understand better how they respond to global warming," said Dr Santoso. Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific. Extreme El Nino's occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns. "The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Niño events has challenged scientists for more than 20 years," said co-author Dr Mike McPhaden of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "This research is the first comprehensive examination of the issue to produce robust and convincing results," said Dr McPhaden. The impacts of extreme El Niño events extend to every continent across the globe. The 1997-98 event alone caused $35-45 billion in damage and claimed an estimated 23,000 human lives worldwide. "During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru," said lead author, CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai In Australia, the drought and dry conditions induced by the 1982-83 extreme El Niño preconditioned the Ash Wednesday Bushfire in southeast Australia, leading to 75 fatalities. To achieve their results, the team examined 20 climate models that consistently simulate major rainfall reorganization during extreme El Niño events. They found a substantial increase in events from the present-day through the next 100 years as the eastern Pacific Ocean warmed in response to global warming. "This latest research based on rainfall patterns, suggests that extreme El Niño events are likely to double in frequency as the world warms leading to direct impacts on extreme weather events worldwide." "For Australia, this could mean summer heat waves, like that recently experienced in the south-east of the country, could get an additional boost if they coincide with extreme El Ninos," said co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just re-landscaped my backyard. Had a pool put in, palapa built, and re-sodded the grass. Wanted to take advantage of the views of the my own personal left hander. Going to have my maid wax up my 5'10" SUPER and I'm out there!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Wiz
Dropping Out of the Scottish Presidential Race
I Heart Spongers

Surf Check

We got surf! But you already knew that. And we've had lots of surf the past month so it shouldn't be a surprise. Am I sounding ungrateful? Just in awe of all the SW and S swells lately AND the great weather AND the warm water temps!

 

As advertised we had a new SW fill in yesterday from a solid storm in the southern hemisphere last week. Sets around town are head high and towards the OC it's overhead. Make sure to clear your schedule and watch the Hurley Pro at Trestles today! The swell will hold tomorrow morning then back off Thursday but there will still be fun chest high+ waves.

On the heels of the dying SW on Thursday will be an early season NW groundswell. Nothing big- maybe chest high sets here- but SD should be shoulder high and fun.

And on the 1st day of fall, we get another shot of small NW for waist high waves here and more chest high waves for SD on Monday. Tropical Storm Polo also starts to creep in later in the week...

Speaking of the tropics, Major Hurricane Odile unfortunately tore through Cabo late Sunday night as potentially the strongest hurricane to ever hit the area. Odile is halfway up Baja and winds amazingly are still 60mph- even though it's been over land the past 2 days. We have a weak cold front moving through California later this week and it will steer Odile into Arizona tomorrow. Odile never got into our swell window so we won't see any waves from it. Won't matter though with the solid SW in the water today. As far as Polo goes, models are being conservative and only showing it reach minimal hurricane status in a few days due to some upper level wind shear which will inhibit it's growth. Polo should get in our swell window over the weekend though and maybe we'll see some fun waist-chest high S swell mid-week with the OC getting head high waves.

And the storms keep on rollin'. Out the back is a storm on the charts in the northern hemisphere that should give us good shoulder high sets around the 26th of September with overhead sets in SD. After that, models show another good storm in the southern hemisphere forming and we may get more head high SW at the end of the month.

As far as our great weather goes, we have a couple more days left. Hurricane Odile is moving up the Baja Peninsula but as advertised above, it will be steered into Arizona. We should though get a glancing blow in the mountains and deserts with lots of thunderstorms tomorrow and Thursday with MAYBE a small chance here at the coast. After that, the weather gets back to normal this weekend as a weak low pressure system moves through. We'll have night and morning low clouds/fog again as well as temps in the low 70's.

Our tides are fairly mellow the next few days- about 3' at sunrise, up to 5' late in the afternoon, and down to 3' at sunset. Water temps are also holding at a fantastic 73-75 degrees. All in all some great waves/weather today, hopefully some Polo swell next week, and a return to fall with cooler temps and NW swells!