Thursday, September 11, 2014

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


Keep it comin'....

SURF:

Had some fun surf earlier in the week with a slow decline by mid-week. A new fun little SW filled in today and put us back into waist high+ surf with chest high waves in the far north part of SD County and head high waves in the OC. Tomorrow we've got more of the same and by the evening we're back to small waves. The weekend unfortunately doesn't look much better as we're in-between swells. Look for great weather and small waves basically.
Water temps are holding in the low 70's and tides the next few days are around 1' at sunrise, up to 6' at noon, and down to 0' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

So let's get into the meat and potatoes of THE Surf Report. We had a good but quick storm in the southern hemisphere last week which will give us some shoulder high waves towards Monday.
That lasts into Tuesday before soon-to-be Hurricane Odile's swell marches into our beaches. Odile is only 60mph now and in the shadow of Baja but the storm is forecasted to peak with 105mph winds on Sunday and just in the sweet spot to aim waves towards So-Cal. Of course Odile will start to die when it hits our swell window but we should get a couple days of waves from it on Wednesday/Thursday. Look for shoulder high waves here in north county SD and overhead surf (again) in the OC. Models also show some early season NW headed our way towards Thursday/Friday so SD may get some chest high waves later next week. Full smorgasbord in the Pacific next week!

WEATHER:

Exciting time of the year (for us weather nerds). High pressure started building today and the weather got warm. But you ain't seen nuttin' yet. We should have temps in the mid-80's by Saturday and by Monday- close to 90. All the while, the low clouds and fog will be at a minimum due to the high pressure and warmer than normal water temps. As hurricane Odile starts to dissipate early next week, we then get his moisture (or is Odile a girl? My apologies) mid-week. Temps start to drop but the humidity increases- for a chance of thunderstorms in the mountains, deserts, inland valleys- and maybe the coast.

BEST BET:
Tropical weather and water, as well as hurricane surf, Wednesday/Thursday is the call.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

With the extremely active tropical season we've been having (16 storms so far), I thought it was a good time to have a look at past hurricanes that have impacted southern California- either with direct hits (1858) or a glancing blow (everything else). And I apologize in advance for the extremely long information below- but there's just too much good information to hold back! Get crackin'!

8.26.2007
Remnants of Hurricane Dean produced thunderstorms and heavy rain in the morning, then again in the afternoon. In Escondido nearly 2 inches fell in less than 90 minutes in the morning. Flash flooding occurred near Borrego Springs and Ocotillo Wells, rendering several roads impassable. Several park visitors were trapped near the Borrego Badlands.

9.5-6.2004
Large surf from Hurricane Howard. Waves 6-12’ throughout Orange County. Water temperature 72°. More than 1,000 rescues during the hottest day of the year at the beach. Estimated 575,000 beach visitors.

9.2-3.2001
Thunderstorms generated from remnants of Hurricane Flossie. 2.1” in 1 hour at Lake Cuyamaca. Flash floods and mud slides in the San Bernardino Mountains and Lake Cuyamaca. Hail up to 0.5” in Pine Valley. 1 boy killed by lightning in Apple Valley. 1 man killed and 1 boy injured by lightning at Cuyamaca Rancho State Park. Trees fell on a house in Beaumont.

9.2.1998
Severe thunderstorms at Hemet and San Marcos from Hurricane Isis. Strong winds from thunderstorms in Orange County with gusts to 40 mph. Large fires in Orange County.

9.24-26.1997
Heavy rain and thunderstorms from Hurricane Nora. 5.50” at Mt. San Jacinto, 4.70” Mt. Laguna, 4.41” Mt. San Gorgonio, 3-4” at several locations in mountains, 3.07” Twentynine Palms, 1.5-2” at Coachella and Borrego Valleys, 2.88” Hemet, 1-2” in many inland areas. Flooding in Palm Springs, Borrego Springs and Spring Valley. Traffic deaths. Waves 20'+ at Seal Beach. Tidal flooding over a 14 block stretch in Seal Beach.

9.14.1997
Hurricane Linda became the strongest storm recorded in the eastern Pacific with winds estimated at 180 mph and gusts to 218 mph. For a time it threatened to come ashore in California as a tropical storm, but the storm turned away, affecting the state with high surf: 15-18' waves at the Wedge at Newport Beach. 5 people were swept off a jetty at the Wedge and carried 300 yards out to sea before they were rescued by a passing boat. It also affected the region with added moisture for showers and thunderstorms. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1997-98. 2.5” per hour rain rates were recorded at Forest Falls. Disastrous flooding and debris flows at Forest Falls: $3.2 million damage, 2 houses destroyed, 77 damaged, car-size boulders, wall of mud 150' wide and 15' tall. Flooding damage also at Oak Glen.

8.20.1997
The remnants of Tropical Storm Ignacio tracked northward moving inland in central California with gale force winds over portions of the Southern California coastal waters. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1997-98.

8.25-26.1993
Rain and thunderstorms from Hurricane Hilary. 3-4” in two hours from heavy thunderstorms in the San Bernardino Mountains, Morongo Valley, and Desert Hot Springs. Flash flooding in Yucaipa and Morongo Valley.

6.9-10.1990
Rain and thunderstorms from Hurricane Boris. 0.37” at San Diego in 30 minutes, 1.41” Mt. Laguna, 0.98” Escondido, 0.87” Fallbrook. 0.49” fell in San Diego on 6.10, the wettest calendar day in June on record.

10.5-12.1987
Heavy rain from Hurricane Ramon: 0.75” at coast, 2” in mountains, 2.14” at Camp Pendleton, 2.08” in Fallbrook, 0.69” at Lindbergh Field. Scattered flooding and power outages. A Palomar Mountain fire was extinguished.

9.22-23.1987
Thunderstorms developed on this day and on 9.23 from San Diego to El Cajon from the remnants of Hurricane Norma. Rainfall was 0.55 inch in two hours at Lemon Grove and 0.97 inch total. 0.70 inch fell at Lindbergh Field, a record for the date. Very frequent lightning caused numerous power outages and property damage, and ignited small fires. Lots of street flooding. Road washouts in the high desert.

9.1-2.1987
Remnants of tropical storm Lidia brought thunderstorms to the San Diego Valleys with lightning and strong damaging winds (possibly a tornado). 35 mph winds were reported at Pt. Loma. On 9.1 lightning struck a power pole in El Cajon, which ruptured gas lines. Another bolt started a house fire. Lightning caused several small fires. What was reported as a dust devil was probably a microburst or a tornado damaged awnings and other items to mobile homes near Lake Jennings. In El Cajon a tree with an 8-inch trunk was snapped in half. On 9.2 a woman was struck by lightning near Lake Henshaw. Ten fires were started by lightning in the mountains of San Diego County. On 9.1, this tropical air mass (remnants of tropical storm Lidia) brought heat to the region: 109° at the Wild Animal Park, 106° in El Cajon, 105° in Escondido and Santee, 99° at SDSU, 89° in National City and 83° at San Diego.

9.20-21.1983
Northward moving Hurricane Manuel dissipated off the west coast of northern Baja California with up to 3” of rainfall in the southern mountains and deserts. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1982-83.

9.24-26.1982
The remnants of Hurricane Olivia recurved northeastward across Southern California with rainfall up to 4” in the mountains. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1982-83.

9.17-18.1982
The remnants of Hurricane Norman tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into Arizona with scattered rainfall amounts up to 1 inch in the southern mountains and deserts. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1982-83.

9.5-6.1978
Hurricane Norman recurved with the remnants tracking into southern California from the south southwest. Rainfall exceeded 3” in the mountains. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78.

10.6-7.1977
Hurricane Heather recurved with the remnants tracking across northern Baja California into Arizona. There was rainfall up to 2” in the southern mountains and deserts. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78.

8.15-17.1977
Hurricane Doreen tracked north northwestward along the west coast of Baja California, dissipating over the coastal waters. Most areas received at least 2” of rainfall with up to 8” in the mountains. This occurred during the El Niño of 1977-78. Heavy rainfall included 4.9” Mt. Laguna, 4.5” Borrego Palm Canyon, 4.0” Palomar Mtn. and Lake Henshaw, 3.26” Borrego Springs (2.53” in 6 hrs on 8.16, a 100 year event), 2”+ Palm Springs, 4.5” Salton Sea in several hours. 2.13” at San Diego for the period, 1.44” on 8.16. On 8.17 2.06” fell in LA, the wettest August day on record.  4 dead and $25 million in damage in Southern California. Debris flows and flooding from Henderson Canyon into Borrego Springs De Anza neighborhood, damaging 100 homes. Mud flows up to 5’ deep. Flooded roads in desert areas. Floods and crop damage at the Salton Sea.

9.9-12.1976
Record rains, flooding from Tropical Storm Kathleen (a 160+ year event). 14.76” on south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 8” Mt. San Jacinto, 10.13” Mt. Laguna, 4+” in Little San Bernardino Mountains, 1.8”-2.8” in the Coachella Valley. Deep Canyon (above La Quinta) recorded 2.96” in 3 hours on 9.10. Rainfall in the Santa Rosa Mountains above the Coachella Valley called “heaviest in recorded history.” 1” in San Diego. On 9.10 2.8” fell in 3 hrs in Borrego Valley and 1.74” fell this day in LA, a daily record. This occurred during the El Niño of 1976-77. 6 buried and killed in sand in Ocotillo. Much of the Imperial Valley flooded. I-8 and other highways ripped out in several locations in the mountains and desert. Floods of record attained at numerous streams above the Coachella Valley. Widespread property damage on the eastern slopes of the peninsular range and the adjacent deserts.

10.6.1972
Hurricane Joanne recurved making landfall in northern Baja California, maintaining tropical storm strength into Arizona and generating rainfall up to 2” in the southeast deserts. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1972-73.

8.29-9.6.1972
Hurricane Hyacinth moved as far west as 125 West before recurving to the northeast. The remnants made landfall between Los Angeles and San Diego on 9.3 with winds of 25 mph and rainfall of up to one inch in the mountains. This tropical cyclone holds the distinction of traveling the farthest west before recurving and making landfall in Southern California. This occurred during the El Niño of 1972-73. 0.44” measured in San Diego. Flash flooding on 9.3 resulted in closing Interstate 40 at Ludlow, east of Barstow, for two hours. Railroads were damaged as well.

8.12.1972
Tropical Storm Diane sent moisture into the region which produced thunderstorms across Southern California. 2.1 inches of rain fell in Lucerne Valley in less than one hour. 0.38” fell in Riverside, and 0.31” in Big Bear Lake. Flash floods left a foot of silt on downtown Lucerne Valley and closed several highways, including Interstate 15 northeast of Barstow.

9.30-10.1.1971
Caribbean Sea Hurricane Irene crossed Nicaragua and reformed in the eastern Pacific as Hurricane Olivia. Olivia recurved to the northeast and made landfall in central Baja California with rainfall of up to one inch in the southern deserts. This occurred during the La Niña of 1970-71.

8.30-31.1967
Hurricane Katrina crossed the southern tip of Baja California, then traversed almost the entire length of the Gulf of California before making landfall again and rapidly weakening. 2”+ of rain fell on parts of the lower desert. 2” at La Quinta on 8.30. La Quinta cut off for several hours. 150 homes damaged by floods in Palm Desert and Indian Wells. Numerous roads washed out in Coachella Valley. The Fort Irwin road north of Barstow was flooded, isolating the army base.

9.17-19.1963
Northeastward moving Tropical Storm Katherine made landfall in northern Baja California with rainfall of up to 6.50” in the mountains. 3.86” fell in San Bernardino, 3.44” in Riverside, 2.66” in Victorville and Cuyamaca, 1.90” in San Diego, 1.88” in Indio, and 1.62” in Santa Ana. Disastrous flooding and erosion hit a northern San Bernardino neighborhood.

9.9-11.1960
North northwestward moving Hurricane Estelle dissipated west of the central Baja California coast. The heaviest rains were over the San Diego County Mountains with 3.40” recorded at Julian on 9.9 and 9.10. On 9.10 a thunderstorm hit Forest Home (now Forest Falls) with 1.08 inches of rain in three hours, but was harder nearby. A severe thunderstorm struck Redlands. On 9.11 a thunderstorm hit the area east of Lucerne Valley. Debris blocked the highway in Forest Home. Streets and lawns were flooded in Redlands. Flash flooding four feet deep washed out a section of road and stranded several vehicles east of Lucerne Valley.

7.28-30.1958
Moisture from a west northwestward moving tropical storm which dissipated west of central Baja California generated up to 2” of rainfall in the deserts and mountains. This occurred during the El Niño of 1957-58. On 7.29 a thunderstorm hit the Barton Flats and Forest Home (now Forest Falls) area with 2” of rain. On 7.30 a severe thunderstorm brought heavy rain and large hail to Barstow. It was called “the worst storm in 60 years”. Another thunderstorm struck Twentynine Palms on 7.30. On 7.29 several walls of mud rolled off fire-denuded hills onto the road in several places along the highway in Barton Flats and Forest Home. 5 cars were trapped. A flash flood struck Barstow on 7.30 and actually moved a house off its foundation. Residents had to escape through windows from flooded houses in Lenwood. Tons of mud engulfed Hwy 66. In Twentynine Palms floodwaters and mud flowed through the streets and into a few buildings.

7.16-19.1954
A northward moving hurricane made landfall in central Baja California with the remnants moving into Arizona. Rainfall of up to 2” occurred in the mountains and deserts. This occurred during the El Niño of 1953-54. On 7.16 a severe thunderstorm struck the Daggett area east of Barstow. Eight miles of Hwy. 66 were flooded. The highway was also flooded near Hinkley with 18” of water.

9.19-21.1952
A west-northwestward moving tropical storm southwest of Baja California dissipated. Moisture from this storm resulted in rainfall of up to 2” in the mountains and deserts, with most falling on 9.19. This occurred during the El Niño of 1951-52.

8.27-29.1951
A hurricane moving north northwestward just off the west coast of Baja California moved northeastward into northern Baja California and dissipated. Moisture from this tropical cyclone resulted in rainfall of 2 to 5” in the mountains and deserts. Many roads were washed out in the Imperial Valley, but otherwise no major damage occurred in southern California. This occurred during the El Niño of 1951-52.

9.29-10.1.1946
A tropical storm moved northward into northern Baja California and dissipated with rainfall of up to 4” in the mountains on 9.30 and exceeding 4” in the mountains on 10.1. This occurred during the El Niño of 1946-47. On 9.29 a particular cloudburst dropped 3” of rain in 30 minutes in San Bernardino. On 9.29 around San Bernardino, farmlands, orchards and vineyards were eroded and some roads were damaged. Many homes were flooded. 9.9-10.1945 A tropical cyclone moving north northwestward just off the west coast of Baja California dissipated off the coast of northern Baja California. Showers produced rainfall up to 2” in the mountains.

8.18.1945
Remnants of a hurricane produced thunderstorms in eastern Coachella Valley. Extensive damage at Oasis. Water 18” deep in Mecca. Four tropical cyclones would impact Southern California during the month of September 1939, an unprecedented occurrence.

9.24-26.1939
“El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis” a tropical storm hits Southern California and causes the greatest September rainfall ever. The storm lost hurricane status shortly before moving onshore at San Pedro at tropical storm strength. Torrential rains: LA 5.42” in 24 hours, Mt. Wilson 11.60” (also records for the month of September). Nearly 7” in three hours at Indio from one thunderstorm. 9.65” at Raywood Flat, 3.62” Needles, 1.51” Palm Springs. A thunderstorm preceding the tropical storm dropped 6.45” in 6 hours at Indio on 9.24. Needles measured 8.50” this month, about double the seasonal average. 45 killed in floods all over Southern California, and 48 more at sea. $2 million damage to structures along the coast and to crops. Eastern Coachella Valley under 2’ of water. Californians were generally unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for southern California, which began operations in February of 1940.

9.19-21.1939
A tropical cyclone moving northwestward, just off the west coast of Mexico, moved into southern Baja California and dissipated. The moisture from this tropical cyclone generated rainfall of up to 3” in the deserts and mountains. 9.11-12.1939 4” of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This was the second tropical cyclone to affect California during the busy month of September 1939. A strong El Niño contributed to the activity.

9.4-6.1939
The remnants of a hurricane tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona generating rainfall of up to 7” on the mountains and deserts. Blythe received more rain than would normally fall in 1 year and Imperial received more rain than would normally fall in 2 years. 1.21” fell in San Diego. Floods through eastern canyons inundate Thermal with 3’ of water. Extensive damage in Mecca. 8.9.1936 A tropical cyclone tracked north northwestward across the Gulf of California with the remnants tracking northward into western Arizona. Locally heavy rainfall in the mountains surrounding LA.

8.25.1935
A tropical cyclone tracked northward across southern and central Baja California. The remnants spread into Arizona generating rainfall of up to 2” in the southern valleys, mountains, and deserts.

9.28-10.1.1932
Four days of heavy rains from a dying tropical cyclone brought flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts of southern California. Rainfall of 4.38” fell at Tehachapi in 7 hours on 9.30 and four day storm total was 7.10”. This occurred during the El Niño year of 1932-33. Flooding to parts of the mountains and deserts. Floods on Agua Caliente and Tehachapi Creeks around Tehachapi resulted in 15 deaths.

9.18.1929
A tropical cyclone moved north northwest just off the west coast of Baja California, dissipating off the coast of northern Baja California. Rainfall of up to 4” occurred in the southern mountains and deserts of southern California on 9.18.

9.30.1921
4” of rain fell on the deserts of Southern California as a result of a dying tropical cyclone that crossed Baja California and moved into southwestern Arizona. 1.23” of rain fell in San Diego, the wettest calendar day in September on record.

8.20-21.1921
The remnants of a tropical cyclone tracked northward into western Arizona from central Baja California generating rainfall of up to 2” in the deserts and southern mountains of southern California. This occurred during the La Niña of 1920-21.

8.26.1915
The remnants of a tropical cyclone moved northward across northern Baja California into the deserts of southern California with rainfall of 1 inch at Riverside. This occurred during the strong El Niño of 1914-15.

8.18-19.1906
A tropical storm came up into the Gulf of California and the southwestern United States, giving the mountains and deserts heavy rainfall. Needles received 5.66” of rain, twice the normal of seasonal rainfall. This occurred during the El Niño of 1905-06.

7.20-21.1902
A dying tropical cyclone brought 2” of rain to the mountains and deserts of Southern California during a very strong El Niño event of 1901-02.

8.11-12.1873
1.95” fell in San Diego from a tropical storm. 1.80” fell on 8.12, the wettest calendar day in August on record. 1.72” fell in Paradise Valley (SE San Diego). Nearly 3” fell in “Cajon Ranch”. This was called the greatest summer rainfall in history. The previous daily August rainfall record was 0.31” in 1867. 1’ of water was reported on the ground at “Cajon Ranch”. Winds “stiffened up to quite a gale”. Damage to roof tops and felled trees.


10.2.1858
Category 1 hurricane hits San Diego, the only actual hurricane on record to strike the U.S. West Coast. Implied winds of 75 mph. Extensive wind damage to property. Streets swept clean by heavy rains.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

I have to admit, last week's Pic of the Week was a little ominous and downright scary. So this week I give you something a little brighter and more upbeat. You take the first one- I'll grab the one out the back. It's the least I can do for you.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Life Coach
Dee Snider's BFF
2010 Rebel Tour Champ