THE Surf Report

Fall is knocking on my door.

SURF:

Great surf and even better weather this week has led to smaller waves today and overcast conditions. We've got leftover SW in the water with holding NW for chest high waves. The OC has a couple bigger sets from the SW and south SD has a couple bigger waves from the NW. We also have a weak cold front moving through today- pretty early for late summer- and the wind is already blowing from the NW at 5. Both swells back off tomorrow for waist high waves with chest high sets.

Late Sunday we have some small NW groundswell fill in again for waist high waves here and chest high waves in SD. Water temps are holding in the high 60's/low 70's and may drop this weekend due to the WNW wind the past few days.

Tides the next few days are around 4' at sunrise, down to 2' after lunch, and back up to 5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a small weekend of surf, the first part of next week isn't looking good.

Hurricane Polo is still stuck under Baja so the peninsula is blocking it's swell for us. As Polo moves into our window- it dies.

We do though have a solid NW on the charts for late next week- right on time for fall. Is this an early sign for our 'El Nino' winter?! Look for the NW to start increasing on Friday with overhead sets here and some 10' sets in SD- if the models hold up.

Further out, charts show a good storm in the southern hemisphere this weekend which should give us overhead sets from the SW around the 30th. Long story short- not looking too good in the near future but plenty good in about a week. Make sure to check back on Tuesday for a Surf Check on the North County Surf blog.

WEATHER:

Fall came early yesterday as a weak cold front came down from central California. Temps dropped about 20 degrees from Tuesday's high of 95 to yesterday's 75. The low clouds and cool temps will stick around this weekend unfortunately (or fortunately if you didn't like the heat) but we'll be back to sunny skies and temps in the high 70's early next week. Models then show another cold front moving through late next week for cooler temps again and more clouds.

BEST BET:
Depends on where you live: Next Friday for SD with the solid NW or the end of the month for the OC with that forthcoming SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

By now you’ve probably heard our upcoming ‘strong’ El Nino has been downgraded to moderate or even (gasp) weak. Regardless, we still should have above average rain this winter, large surf, and a few nasty storms to blow over a few trees. If this El Nino does pan out this winter, are we going to have to wait another 20 year for the next one? A report earlier this year said that extreme weather events fueled by unusually strong El Ninos, such as the 1983 heatwave that led to the Ash Wednesday bushfires in Australia and the destruction of southern California beach property, are likely to double in number as our planet warms. An international team of scientists from organizations including the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA) and CSIRO, published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change. "We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years," said co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of CoECSS. "El Nino events are a multi-dimensional problem, and only now are we starting to understand better how they respond to global warming," said Dr Santoso. Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific. Extreme El Nino's occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns. "The question of how global warming will change the frequency of extreme El Niño events has challenged scientists for more than 20 years," said co-author Dr Mike McPhaden of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "This research is the first comprehensive examination of the issue to produce robust and convincing results," said Dr McPhaden. The impacts of extreme El Niño events extend to every continent across the globe. The 1997-98 event alone caused $35-45 billion in damage and claimed an estimated 23,000 human lives worldwide. "During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru," said lead author, CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai In Australia, the drought and dry conditions induced by the 1982-83 extreme El Niño preconditioned the Ash Wednesday Bushfire in southeast Australia, leading to 75 fatalities. To achieve their results, the team examined 20 climate models that consistently simulate major rainfall reorganization during extreme El Niño events. They found a substantial increase in events from the present-day through the next 100 years as the eastern Pacific Ocean warmed in response to global warming. "This latest research based on rainfall patterns, suggests that extreme El Niño events are likely to double in frequency as the world warms leading to direct impacts on extreme weather events worldwide." "For Australia, this could mean summer heat waves, like that recently experienced in the south-east of the country, could get an additional boost if they coincide with extreme El Ninos," said co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just re-landscaped my backyard. Had a pool put in, palapa built, and re-sodded the grass. Wanted to take advantage of the views of the my own personal left hander. Going to have my maid wax up my 5'10" SUPER and I'm out there!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Wiz
Dropping Out of the Scottish Presidential Race
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