THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I can see summer in my rearview mirror.

SURF:
And just like that, summer is over. Or it least it feels that way.

Not much surf the past few days- and cooler weather to boot- and it feels like we're in a transition period. Good news is that we've had some building NW groundswell today for chest high sets in town and head high sets in SD. Just like you expected for the first few days of fall. Tomorrow is more of the same then the groundswell backs off and NW windswell fills in.

Look for the windswell to hit more spots on Saturday/Sunday in north county SD as we get head high sets and the same for south SD. Not much for the OC unfortunately- but hey- Hurricane Marie was a grand slam for you guys so no complaining for a few months. We also have a weak cold front moving through late tomorrow into Saturday, so beware the W winds and overcast conditions!

Tides the next few days are around 2' at sunrise, up to 5.5' before lunch, and down to 1' before sunset. And our water temps are just barely hanging out at 70 degrees. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

After the NW groundswell/windswell combo this weekend, tropical storm Rachel tries to get in the mix but she unfortunately is only forecasted to make it as a maximum strength tropical storm with 70mph winds. Pretty strong if it's right on top of you- but not much of a swell maker when you're 1,000 miles away. Rachel should hit our swell window on Saturday then her meager little swell may lap on our shores on Monday for waist high waves- maybe some chest high waves in the OC.

We then have a good SW ground swell moving up the Pacific today that will start to build late Tuesday. The real meat of the swell starts to arrive a couple days later though on the 2nd of October.

Look for the surf to start out in the chest high range on the 30th and hit head high on the 2nd. The OC may see a couple bigger sets.

 

Charts then show another round of NW windswell mid-week and chest high NW groundswell arriving late next week AND then more good SW is on the charts towards the 11th if the models hold true. All in all some S tropical swell, SW groundswell, NW windswell, and NW groundswell in the forecast. Whew! My hands are tired from typing. Make sure to check back on Tuesday for a Surf Check in the blog below to see the latest on these developing storms.

WEATHER:

Fall is definitely here as we've had cool weather all week, off and on low clouds, and cooler water temps (cooler being a relative term as you can still trunk it mid-day). But I'm getting off track. We do have a cold front moving through tomorrow that will kick up the low clouds Friday night for a chance- wait for it- of drizzle. Yes- the poor stepchild of rain. That moves through Saturday and we have breezy W winds. Sunday to Wednesday are transition days as weak high pressure starts to build, then we should have sunny skies and warm air temps late next week.

BEST BET:
Lots of surf on tap but the combo NW/SW next week AND great weather is the call for Wednesday-Friday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I know I’ve been jumping the gun with all this El Nino talk the past 6 months (ok, it’s been like a year now), but before we get ahead of ourselves and think the expected El Nino this winter will cure our water shortage, where do we stand today? According to the National Oceanic  and Atmospheric Administration, record warmth occurred from January to August, and September 2013 to August 2014 received much below average precipitation (third year in a row) and is the second driest in California since 1976-77. The outlook for the end of summer 2014 predicts warmer than normal conditions with periods of active monsoon thunderstorms in the interior deserts and mountains. Due to the ongoing drought, the fire danger is much above normal across most of California. Across the equatorial Pacific Ocean average sea surface temperatures, currently neutral, are expected to warm into an El Nino state this fall. However, it is uncertain to how much impact this may have in 2014-15 winter wet season. Historically, several El Nino winters have brought normal and below normal precipitation. Only the strong phase of the El Nino has been the most consistent with above normal precipitation for southern California. Currently, state water supply is 35 to 45 percent of capacity (half of historical average) and snow melt runoff and recharge was very little this spring due to historical low snowpack. The diminishing water supply combined with the below normal precipitation this past year, and the past 3 years combined being the driest on record, have all led to the extreme drought conditions. In general, California would need about 150 percent of average for the rainy season (October to April) in order to significantly reduce the drought (long term precipitation deficits) and raise the low water supply in reservoirs and bring soil moisture to near normal levels.

So that’s not good. What about all the El Nino influenced tropical moisture we’ve had this summer? Well, it’s been helpful to some places and negligible in others. Current readings for spots around southern California (since July 1st- the start of the rainy season) are:

• Riverside = 0.37”, 109% of normal
• LAX = 0.19”, 86% of normal
• Newport Beach = $0.03”, 13% of normal
• Palm Springs = 1.19”, 128% of normal
• Oceanside = 0.14”, 29% of normal
• San Diego = 0.08”, 53% of normal

And the grand prize winner…
• Campo = 2.03”, 156% of normal. Which doesn't do us any good out here on the coast.

I always like to see how active the fall is with the strength of weather systems moving through early in the season and then how they may relate to the winter. I’ve noticed over the years that if the cold ronts start early- like getting a couple good storms in October, then it leaves the door wide open for the real storms from December to March. So keep your eyes on the sky next month and see if that expected El Nino walks through the front door…
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Get out of the way! It's barreling towards you! Don't take your eye off it or you may get stream rolled! For more great pics to get your butt in gear and paddling towards the channel, check out Andrew Shields work down under.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Dreamboat
Already Camped Outside Apple For The iPhone 7
King of Surf Guitar