THE Surf Report- Late Edition

Just woke up from my Thanksgiving slumber.

SURF:

Not much surf the past few days but new NW filled in on the buoys this afternoon. Unfortunately it peaks tonight but we at least have 1 more day of nice weather tomorrow to coincide with the leftover swell. Look for shoulder high sets from the NW tomorrow morning- overhead in SD- then it slowly fades into Sunday. We also get a slight chance of showers Sunday, so tomorrow is going to be the day.

Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and tides are 3' at sunrise, down to 2' mid-morning, and up to 4' late afternoon.  Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

Things start to take a turn for the worse (or better depending on your point of view) on Monday as the NW over the weekend fades to chest high sets and our first real storm of the season starts to move in late Monday. By Tuesday we should have moderate amounts of rain, steady S wind, and overhead storm surf. At least it will thin out the crowds. Conditions improve slightly during the work week and the NW swell starts to back down but there's nothing much on tap. Models show another storm forming in the Aleutians later in the work week that may give us a fun NW late next weekend so it bears watching.

WEATHER:

Is our feeble El Nino finally here? Models have been all over the place the past few days advertising moderate to heavy rain in southern California and now it looks like moderate rain is possible next week. Before I get ahead of myself though, tomorrow looks to be the last clean day, Sunday we may have light showers from our 1st system, Monday is between weather systems, then Tuesday the real rain comes and lasts into Wednesday from our 2nd system. All in all we should get 1+" of rain at the coast and a few inches in the mountains. This weather system will tap into tropical moisture so the snow levels should be fairly high unfortunately. At least we'll get good rains though. Showers linger into Thursday and Friday things may start to clear up (and hopefully our water quality).

BEST BET:
Tomorrow as we have leftover NW swell and clean conditions. Or Tuesday for those of you with a sick sense of humor as we'll have overhead storm surf, strong S winds, and victory at sea conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Considering we’re on track to get our 1st real rain since, well probably 1996 (I’m kidding of course), I thought a little weather facts from this day in history would be appropriate…

2009: It rained in San Diego for the first time since 6/16! This ended a consecutive dry streak of 164 days in San Diego, which started on 6/17. This streak of 164 days is tied as the fourth longest dry streak on San Diego record. This day also marks the latest end to any dry streak on record. (The longest dry streak on record is 182 days from 4/8/2004 to 10/16/2004).

1989: Strong Santa Ana winds produced gusts to 70 mph at the Rialto Airport. Several tractor- trailer trucks were overturned east of Los Angeles.

1981: A storm that started on 11/27 and ended on this day dumped nearly two inches of rain in the LA area. Three feet of new snow were recorded at Big Bear Lake. Highway deaths resulted.

1975: The first winter storm of season was a heavy one. It started on this day and ended on 11/29. Up to two feet of snow fell in the San Bernardino Mountains, including 16 inches at Big Bear Lake. Twenty stranded campers were rescued after a few days. 12 inches of snow fell in Idyllwild, the greatest daily snowfall on record for November. This also occurred on 11/10/1982.

1970: A series of storms struck the region from 11/25 to 11/30 following large destructive wildfires in the San Bernardino and San Gabriel Mountains earlier in the fall. 9.17 inches of precipitation fell in Lake Arrowhead, 7.22 inches in Lytle Creek, 5.11 inches in Big Bear Lake, 5.02 inches in Palomar Mountain, 3.56 inches in San Bernardino, 2.63 inches in Redlands, 2.51 inches in Santa Ana, and 2.05 inches in San Diego. Flooding inundated streets and highways in the Rancho Cucamonga area. At least 60 homes were damaged by floods and debris flows.

1919: The low temperature was 36° in San Diego and 24° in Santa Ana, each the lowest temperature on record for November.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

J-Bay and Maalaea aren't the only places in the world with freight train rights. Not sure where this place is but I there's a locomotive that can take you there.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Up and Coming
Got Caught Up in Black Friday & Bought 12 TV's at Walmart
Moonlight As A Pro Surfer

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Is that Ol' Man Winter knocking at the front door?

SURF:
Has winter finally arrived tonight? We had fun WNW swell today, the clouds thickened up, wind starting blowing, and rain was moving down the coast. A sure sign El Nino has arrived! Nah, just messing with us.

The swell peaked last night but we still had head high waves this morning with overhead sets in SD. Tomorrow the swell drops further and the showers clear out but we still have shoulder high sets and maybe some breezy NW winds behind the cold front. Luckily for us, we get a small reinforcement out of the NW Friday afternoon to keep shoulder high sets around town. Saturday the NW winds down and we have a little SW in the water too but not much size. Beachbreaks may be peaky though.

 Fear not as more NW is headed our way for Sunday afternoon into Monday for more head high waves and overhead sets in SD. All in all some fun surf this weekend.

Water temps are holding at 65 degrees and we only have a couple tides during the days this weekend; about 6' in the mornings then dropping quickly to -1' at 3pm. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After the NW runs it's course on Monday, it's looking pretty small next week. High pressure is forecasted to build and block any storms from heading our way, so until then, look for small waves at least through Thanksgiving.

Models though do show high pressure breaking down next weekend and a storm forming off the northwest coast, so we may get good overhead NW swell next weekend. But until then, get as much surf as you can this weekend then hang out with the in-laws on Turkey Day.

WEATHER:

Still no signs of El Nino busting down the door but at least it's trying. A weak cold front is moving through tonight and we've got light showers developing. That blows through tomorrow and the jet stream stays over us this weekend. No storms unfortunately, just cool weather. High pressure finally arrives early next week for sunny skies and temps near 70 at the beaches. Typical San Diego winter, right? Looks like Thanksgiving should be sunny and pleasant and then forecast charts aren't too consistent after that but they're hinting nice weather may last into next weekend.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow will have waves again but the passing cold front may make it junky. May want to wait until Sunday evening when the next swell arrives and the weather cleans up.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Now that a chance of a strong El Nino this winter has been thrown out the window, what do we have in store with our warmer than average Pacific water temperatures and persistent cold weather back east (have you seen that brutal lake effect snow this week)? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have put together a synopsis which sheds some light on the long term forecast:

After a memorably cold winter in the central and eastern United States last year, and some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if this cold weather is a harbinger of things to come.  The simple answer is “not necessarily,” as the persistence of weather and climate from one winter to the next or even one month to the next is usually fairly low. While “persistence”—the prediction that recent conditions will continue—is a simple forecast to make, it rarely proves to be as accurate as forecasts made using dynamical models or more advanced statistical methods.

So does that mean this won’t be a cold winter in the central and eastern part of the nation? Again the answer is “not necessarily.” According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) mid-November outlook, odds favor below-normal temperatures in certain parts of the country, and many of those areas do turn out to be in the south-central and southeastern United States, as we will discuss shortly. 

Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, even in regions where above-normal temperatures are favored, a colder-than-normal winter is still a possibility.  Remember, CPC’s outlooks describe probabilities, which means that even when one outcome is more likely than another, there is still always a chance that a less favored outcome will occur.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides strong clues as to what we can expect during winter across much of the United States.  Of course, this only applies when El Niño or La Niña are present, and as we approach winter, we find ourselves still waiting and wondering if El Niño is going to begin or not.  However, despite the reluctance of El Niño to show itself so far this year, CPC forecasters have considered potential impacts from El Niño and have slightly tilted the outlook (particularly the precipitation outlook) in that direction. 

And if El Niño remains a no-show this year, what will this mean for the forecast?  Actually, as you might expect, not much, because the forecasters understand the fact that El Niño has a 58% of developing, which also means that there’s a 42% chance that it won’t.  To see how information about El Niño gets incorporated into the forecast, let’s take a look at the precipitation outlook. (El Niño often has a more robust influence on precipitation than on temperature.)

The winter precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern tier of the nation extending northward along the East Coast, as well as in southern Alaska, and drier-than-normal conditions in central Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  This pattern is quite consistent with the average precipitation patterns seen during previous El Nino winters. 

However, you’ll note that the largest probabilities on this outlook are all less than 50%.  This means that while above-normal precipitation across the South is the most likely out of the 3 possibilities (below normal, near normal, or above normal), it’s more likely that we’ll see precipitation that is “not above-normal.” That is, the combined chance that the outcome will fall in one of the other two categories (near normal or below normal) is higher.

It’s like spinning a climate roulette wheel. While the “above” area is the biggest piece of the pie, the near-normal and even below-normal areas are not insignificant and could occur.  These are very modest probabilities for an El Niño winter and reflect the reality that El Niño is not a sure bet for this winter.  And even if it does develop, it’s likely to be a weak event, resulting in weak impacts.
For example, in contrast to this year’s ENSO situation, precipitation probabilities in Texas and Florida during the 2009-10 winter outlook exceeded 50% for above-normal rainfall, and they exceeded 70% during the peak of the 1997/98 event.  In both cases, the most likely or favored result occurred, as wetter-than-average winters prevailed. This year our confidence level is not so high, but we still think the probability for above normal is higher than it would be purely due to chance, which would be 33.33%.

The temperature outlook favors a warmer-than-normal winter over Alaska, the Western United States, and northern New England, while below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the south-central and southeastern parts of the nation.  Probabilities of above-normal temperature exceed 50% along the West Coast, so this region has a significantly reduced chance (just 15%) of seeing a colder-than-normal winter.

Making seasonal forecasts is a very challenging endeavor.  Seasonal climate models are not as skillful as weather models, and phenomenon like El Niño or La Niña only provide some hints as to what might occur during an upcoming season.  CPC issues probabilistic seasonal forecasts so users can take risk and opportunities into account when making climate-sensitive decisions.
However, keep in mind that these outlooks will primarily benefit those who play the long game.  The maps show only the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but not the only possible outcome.   For example, while the outlook favors above-normal temperatures in northern New England, it wouldn’t be shocking for temperatures this winter to be near-normal or even colder-than-normal. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Are you trying to teach your grom or grandma how to surf but paddling out at Swami's isn't exactly the brightest idea? Let Professor Michael show you the way as the North County Surf blog this week has all the best spots when it's 1' and under. Doesn't sound exciting? Better then having the kids get pounded in the shorebreak at Marine Street and a trip to the ER! Check out the details on the blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report- all of that and more in the blog below!  
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is NOT a place to take your girlfriend out for her first time surfing. You instead paddle out on your 6'4" rounded pin, you set her up at the pool bar, and voila! Everyone's happy. For more pics of exotic locales, check out the work of Ben Hicks here.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Taking the World By Storm
Sexiest Man Alive. AGAIN.
Was Attacked By Sigmund The Sea Monster

Best Beaches for Groms

With a couple groms I'm responsible for, teaching them to surf hasn't been an easy task. Gone are the days of throwing them into 10' shorebreak at Marine Street and letting them figure out; child protective services would be all over me like a fly on... you get the point.

So where do you take a true beginner to learn how to surf so they don't get sucked out to sea their first time out? Well, taking into consideration tides, topography, and swell height, Professor Michael has it all figured out for you. Now when I say 'beginner', I mean BEGINNER. Like a grom learning how to stand up, a place you can take your grandma too (yes, even grandma's surf now). Once your grom can stand up, wiggle, paddle back out, and duck dive, they don't need your help. Throw 'em to the wolves at Swami's by that point. I'm talking about waves that are knee high, slow, and you won't tick off the locals by sitting in the impact zone. This is not a definitive list- heck- most every beach is a beginner's wave when the surf is only 1', but here's a guide when there's a little bit of swell running and you need a safe place to take your 5 year old out (or 50 year old) for some dribblers.

First up- the stretch of beach in front of the power plant in Carlsbad. It's a unique stretch of beach- especially on a S or SW swell. As the swells march down the beach, they tend to focus on the reefs at Terramar and Tamarack and the leftovers lap into the beaches in front of the power plant. Sand bottom, little waves, and plenty of space. A good spot for groms. Beware though the stingrays that congregate in front of the warm water coming out from the jetties.

Another spot that's affected by nearby bathymetry is south Ponto beach. Waves tend to focus on the sandbars in front of the jetties and also the reef to the south at Grandview, so the south Ponto is always a couple feet smaller. Sand bottom again and plenty of parking. This wave tends to be a little more dumpy so make sure to teach your kid how NOT TO pearl!

Next up is probably one of the best waves to teach beginners on- the creek at Cardiff. Even on the biggest days on the reef, the creek is one of the safest places to learn. As the waves break outside on the reef with the longboarders, stand up crew, hipsters, and Rob Machado, the energy dissipates and what's left is tiny peelers rolling into the creek for the groms to get their groove on. A couple disclaimers though- don't surf the creek after a rain! That goes without saying. Secondly- surf it on an incoming tide- not outgoing. Outgoing means the river starts flowing out of the creek and your kids get swept down the beach. Of special note- the creek at Del Mar which separates the cities of Solana Beach and Del Mar is another option (i.e. Dog Beach)- but the water quality is a little suspect due to all the dogs doing their thing on the beach and the horses doing their thing upstream...

Moving further down the coast is another spot vying for #1 beginners spot: La Jolla Shores. Right out in front of the park. This beach faces N, so in the summer time, S swells march right past this stretch of coast and it's FLAT. Almost too flat for even beginners. And the winter time is almost no different. Huh? If it faces N, how come it doesn't pick up W, NW, or N swells?! It's due to the lesser known of the 2 submarine canyons in La Jolla. Black's Beach we all know has the world famous canyon which funnels Aleutian juice into 20' A-frames in the winter time. The other canyon is directly pointed at the lifeguard tower at La Jolla Shores.

So why is it flat in front of the lifeguard tower while 100 yards up the beach it's 8' at Scripps Pier? As the swells march towards the coast and encounter the canyon, they start to bend to feel the canyon wall and make a left turn towards the pier- pretty much avoiding the south end of the beach. I've actually run down here on massive winter swells when the rest of the coast is 12-15' and closed out and La Jolla shores is 3' and gutless. Plus there's the bonus of seeing schools of harmless 2' leopard sharks underneath your grom as they stand up on their first wave! So if you're wondering if the same phenomenon happens at the canyon at Blacks- it does- just in front of the 'road' trail on the south end of the beach. But I wouldn't advise lugging your grom down to Blacks with all your gear- it's a brutal hike. 

And if you're feeling really adventurous, head to south county and set up shop at Tourmaline Beach in north Pacific Beach. And when I say Tourmaline, I'm not talking about the waves in front of the road that leads down the hill to the beach, but rather the little corner tucked away at the north end- pretty much the inside of PB Point. Reason being is that Tourmaline gets fairly crowded and PB Point picks up a fair amount of swell- so you don't want either of those options. But the little corner up the beach has tiny waves, less of a crowd, and plenty of time to get to your feet on the slow rollers. The only downside is this little corner tends to not circulate the water all that well and your left with piles of seaweed from time to time.

So there you have it, the definitive surf spot guide for beginners. Just one less chance of your grom getting eaten by a shark, hit in the head with their board, or harassed by a grumpy local!

Surf Check

 

Had some fun surf last weekend- along with great weather- but the swell has since faded. Today we're just left with knee high NW with waist high sets in SD. The wind is light offshore. Looks like a nice day to surf- if only there was surf!

Water temps are still an unbelievably warm 67 degrees- about 5 degrees above normal for mid-November- and we've got big tide swings the next few days- about 5' at sunrise, down to 0' after lunch, and up to 3' at sunset.

So what's up with the rain? Or lack thereof? We've had plenty of moisture north of us but high pressure down here has kept us warm and dry. We've got a couple more days of nice sunny weather then the tail end of a storm up north will give us some light showers Thursday evening into Friday morning. After that- high pressure sets up again over the weekend and it's looking like another mild offshore Santa Ana wind event next week. 80 degrees for Thanksgiving. Go eco and let the sun bake your turkey!

As high pressure breaks down this week, the NW swell will increase. The 'storm' mentioned above will bring some head high sets late Thursday into Friday. Just beware of the junky conditions from the passing cold front.

On it's heels is more NW for Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The swell will be only be shoulder high but at least the conditions will be clean.

AND THEN... if the mild offshore winds develop early next week as forecasted, we have more overhead NW arriving on Monday. After that, things slow down out in the north Pacific and it's looking pretty small the 2nd half of next week. So until then- live it up!

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Hope on the horizon?

SURF:

Not much action this past week and the drab weather added to the boredom.

Things are looking up though tomorrow as a new NW is filling in on the central Cal buoys tonight. Look for chest high waves in the AM then head high waves by sundown with overhead surf in SD. That swell holds into Saturday morning. Luckily we have a smaller reinforcing swell for Sunday with more shoulder high sets here and head high+ waves in SD. And good weather is on tap for Sunday too (more on that below in the Weather section). All in all some good waves this weekend and clearing skies. Finally.

Water temps are holding at 67 and the tides are mellow the next few days; about 3' at sunrise, down slightly to 2' mid-morning, up to 3.5' mid-afternoon, and down again to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After a fun weekend of surf, Monday has some leftovers and mid-week is looking pretty small.

We do though get a boost from the NW again on Thursday for more head high sets and overhead waves in SD. Just hoping the forecasted cold front below doesn't screw things up.

After that, models show a big storm forming in the Aleutians towards the end of next weekend which may give us a big NW around the 23rd/24th. Is it finally time to dust off those Rhino Chasers?

WEATHER:

Models are all over the place with the upcoming weather this week. A few days ago the models were showing high pressure setting up shop this weekend and warm sunny skies. Now they're showing a slight chance of showers this evening into tomorrow and the nice weather won't arrive until late Sunday into early next week. Models also showed some rain on Tuesday but that has since been shunted on the latest charts and it looks like MAYBE a shower or two around Thursday- and even then that's not looking promising. So until then, some cool conditions tomorrow, slightly better weather early next week, and cool conditions again late next week. And still no storms in sight! 

BEST BET:
In the near term, late tomorrow or 1st thing Saturday with the solid NW. Or take your chances the 2nd half of next week with more NW but a chance of showers to mess things up.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

For not having any weather around here besides the occasional low clouds and fog, our atmosphere from time to time likes to spice things up. One instance of course is the hot dry Santa Ana winds. The other is Island Band Showers. Never heard of it? It’s simple really; our offshore islands make their own little weather systems that drift on to our shores. Here’s how it happens:

1. After a storm or cold front moves through our area, the resulting W or NW winds behind it encounter one of the islands offshore from us. In our case- usually Catalina or San Clemente Island.
2. The air flows around the islands and where the air convergences on the other side, it rises, cools, and condenses like all good clouds should.
3. The clouds continue to grow as it’s pushed towards our shores. If there is enough moisture, the cloud will begin to produce rain. If strong enough, it may produce lightning, hail, and gusty winds.
4. Also, rotation may form where the air convergences behind the islands. As the clouds/storm grows, funnel clouds or waterspouts may form.

Amazing to think that our offshore islands are their own little tornado factories. Keep an eye on the islands this winter and see if you can spot the Island Band Showers after the passing of a cold front. And if you spot a funnel cloud of course- get in your basement Dorothy!
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

All of you know EXACTLY what this feels like. You spot a big set on the horizon, start paddling like crazy outside, and you scratch over the shoulder with a big lump in your throat and your heart pounding a million miles an hour hoping you don't get sucked over the falls. BUT... you are a surfer of course and against your better judgement you just HAVE to take a peek into the pit even though it's the one trying to kill you. I guess you have to be a little crazy to be a surfer. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Prom King
Flying a Russian Bomber to the Comet with Kim Kardashian
Earned a Masters in Surfology

Surf Check

Small NW swell today (with a touch of tiny SW) has been blown to bits this morning from persistent W winds. They started early and haven't stopped. Not strong winds mind you- just 10mph- but enough to make it look ugly this morning.

The winds and drizzle will last at least another day and then models have high pressure building slightly for the weekend. Look for mostly sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's at the beaches. Further out on the charts is a solid low pressure system off Canada that may slide south early next week. It looks like it won't roll through here but it may be strong enough to erode the high pressure and give us a shout of showers early next week. Hopefully we'll start to get a few cold fronts and rain around here if it opens the door.

So what's going on with our surf? Well... with the nice weather on tap this weekend, we'll get a shot of a couple fun NW swells. First up is a good one filling in Friday evening into Saturday morning. Look for head high waves here and overhead waves in SD. On it's heels is another NW filling in Sunday afternoon. Slightly smaller but still fun shoulder high waves and head high+ waves in SD. Then of course our weather may turn sour early next week and the waves depart with the nice weekend weather.

Charts show another NW arriving towards next Thursday- most likely waist to chest high- but it may not matter if our storm door is open and we have showers off and on next week. On it's heels though is a good storm on the charts which may arrive late Sunday the 24th or Monday the 25th. Still a long ways out- and it may bring stormy weather- but worth keeping our eye on.

THE Surf Report

Waiting for winter.

SURF:
Still no signs of winter yet.

Had a little storm last weekend and a quick shot of NW windswell/groundswell on Sunday but that's about it. This past week high pressure has been in control and we have small NW with a touch of SW today and sunny clear skies.

This weekend looks to be the same as the NW windswell hangs around and the SW peaks tomorrow. Look for best combo spots to be waist high with maybe a bigger set.

Beware the tides though! We've got 4' tides at sunrise, up to 6.5' at 9am, down quickly to -1' towards sunset. And we're officially done with 70 degree plus water for the year. Temps are hovering around 67 and getting cooler. All in all some small combo surf this weekend and great weather. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

And the small surf keeps a rollin'. We get another small shot of NW windswell towards Tuesday for waist high surf and chest high sets in SD.

The 2nd half of next week looks small but models do show some life in the Aleutians. If everything goes according to plan, we may get head high waves next weekend. As far as our friends to the south go, storms off Antarctica are nil and the tropics have some clouds floating around but nothing is organized yet.

WEATHER:

After the showers we got last weekend, it's been nothing but sunny skies and temps in the 80's. El Nino is no where in sight! This weekend has great weather on tap again with light winds and more temps in the high 70's/low 80's. High pressure retreats slightly next week and we may get a return of low clouds/fog on Monday into the rest of next week. And no rain is forecasted for at least the next 7 days...

BEST BET:
I wouldn't call it 'BEST' but tomorrow is probably the day with small NW/SW and clean conditions. Next week just isn't looking that impressive.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Paging El Nino. Paging El Nino. Please pick up the white courtesy phone and tell me where the heck you’ve been…

Things aren’t looking too hot for the alleged El Nino. Let’s take a look at the past month:
-No major storms yet. Only sunny warm skies. So warm in fact that inland Orange County and inland San Diego County had record temps yesterday of 92/93 degrees respectively. Hottest temps in the US of A!
-Only rain we’ve received so far is a quick dusting of 1/3” last weekend.  Newport Beach is only 16% of normal for this time of year, Oceanside is fairly better at 70% of normal, and San Diego airport is 45% of normal.
-Our water temps are finally below 70 degrees and we’re wearing springsuits (gasp)!
-Last time I saw overhead surf from the Aleutians was when I was in Nor-Cal last winter. And the next 7 days aren’t going to help either.
-And then this from NOAA yesterday:

Synopsis: There is now just a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. Subsurface heat is largely unchanged even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific. The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. There’s been mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia. Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral. Meaning?...

Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest model forecast have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize. If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

So there you have it. It’s looking like no 100’ Cortes Bank, no mudslides in Laguna Canyon, no surf rolling over the road in Cardiff, no leaky Glenn house roof.
Bummer. Except for the leaky roof part.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Since summer is overstaying it's welcome around here, here's a friendly reminder of what winter looks like.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Daredevil
Lost by 1 Vote
Was Invited to Mensa By Barton Lynch