THE Surf Report

Waiting for winter.

SURF:
Still no signs of winter yet.

Had a little storm last weekend and a quick shot of NW windswell/groundswell on Sunday but that's about it. This past week high pressure has been in control and we have small NW with a touch of SW today and sunny clear skies.

This weekend looks to be the same as the NW windswell hangs around and the SW peaks tomorrow. Look for best combo spots to be waist high with maybe a bigger set.

Beware the tides though! We've got 4' tides at sunrise, up to 6.5' at 9am, down quickly to -1' towards sunset. And we're officially done with 70 degree plus water for the year. Temps are hovering around 67 and getting cooler. All in all some small combo surf this weekend and great weather. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

And the small surf keeps a rollin'. We get another small shot of NW windswell towards Tuesday for waist high surf and chest high sets in SD.

The 2nd half of next week looks small but models do show some life in the Aleutians. If everything goes according to plan, we may get head high waves next weekend. As far as our friends to the south go, storms off Antarctica are nil and the tropics have some clouds floating around but nothing is organized yet.

WEATHER:

After the showers we got last weekend, it's been nothing but sunny skies and temps in the 80's. El Nino is no where in sight! This weekend has great weather on tap again with light winds and more temps in the high 70's/low 80's. High pressure retreats slightly next week and we may get a return of low clouds/fog on Monday into the rest of next week. And no rain is forecasted for at least the next 7 days...

BEST BET:
I wouldn't call it 'BEST' but tomorrow is probably the day with small NW/SW and clean conditions. Next week just isn't looking that impressive.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Paging El Nino. Paging El Nino. Please pick up the white courtesy phone and tell me where the heck you’ve been…

Things aren’t looking too hot for the alleged El Nino. Let’s take a look at the past month:
-No major storms yet. Only sunny warm skies. So warm in fact that inland Orange County and inland San Diego County had record temps yesterday of 92/93 degrees respectively. Hottest temps in the US of A!
-Only rain we’ve received so far is a quick dusting of 1/3” last weekend.  Newport Beach is only 16% of normal for this time of year, Oceanside is fairly better at 70% of normal, and San Diego airport is 45% of normal.
-Our water temps are finally below 70 degrees and we’re wearing springsuits (gasp)!
-Last time I saw overhead surf from the Aleutians was when I was in Nor-Cal last winter. And the next 7 days aren’t going to help either.
-And then this from NOAA yesterday:

Synopsis: There is now just a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. Subsurface heat is largely unchanged even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific. The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. There’s been mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia. Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral. Meaning?...

Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015. However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest model forecast have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize. If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

So there you have it. It’s looking like no 100’ Cortes Bank, no mudslides in Laguna Canyon, no surf rolling over the road in Cardiff, no leaky Glenn house roof.
Bummer. Except for the leaky roof part.
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

Since summer is overstaying it's welcome around here, here's a friendly reminder of what winter looks like.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Daredevil
Lost by 1 Vote
Was Invited to Mensa By Barton Lynch