Is that Ol' Man Winter knocking at the front door?
SURF:
Has winter finally arrived tonight? We had fun WNW swell today, the clouds thickened up, wind starting blowing, and rain was moving down the coast. A sure sign El Nino has arrived! Nah, just messing with us.
FORECAST:
After the NW runs it's course on Monday, it's looking pretty small next week. High pressure is forecasted to build and block any storms from heading our way, so until then, look for small waves at least through Thanksgiving.
WEATHER:
Still no signs of El Nino busting down the door but at least it's trying. A weak cold front is moving through tonight and we've got light showers developing. That blows through tomorrow and the jet stream stays over us this weekend. No storms unfortunately, just cool weather. High pressure finally arrives early next week for sunny skies and temps near 70 at the beaches. Typical San Diego winter, right? Looks like Thanksgiving should be sunny and pleasant and then forecast charts aren't too consistent after that but they're hinting nice weather may last into next weekend.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow will have waves again but the passing cold front may make it junky. May want to wait until Sunday evening when the next swell arrives and the weather cleans up.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Now that a chance of a strong El Nino this winter has been thrown out the window, what do we have in store with our warmer than average Pacific water temperatures and persistent cold weather back east (have you seen that brutal lake effect snow this week)? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have put together a synopsis which sheds some light on the long term forecast:
After a memorably cold winter in the central and eastern United States last year, and some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if this cold weather is a harbinger of things to come. The simple answer is “not necessarily,” as the persistence of weather and climate from one winter to the next or even one month to the next is usually fairly low. While “persistence”—the prediction that recent conditions will continue—is a simple forecast to make, it rarely proves to be as accurate as forecasts made using dynamical models or more advanced statistical methods.
So does that mean this won’t be a cold winter in the central and eastern part of the nation? Again the answer is “not necessarily.” According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) mid-November outlook, odds favor below-normal temperatures in certain parts of the country, and many of those areas do turn out to be in the south-central and southeastern United States, as we will discuss shortly.
Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, even in regions where above-normal temperatures are favored, a colder-than-normal winter is still a possibility. Remember, CPC’s outlooks describe probabilities, which means that even when one outcome is more likely than another, there is still always a chance that a less favored outcome will occur.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides strong clues as to what we can expect during winter across much of the United States. Of course, this only applies when El Niño or La Niña are present, and as we approach winter, we find ourselves still waiting and wondering if El Niño is going to begin or not. However, despite the reluctance of El Niño to show itself so far this year, CPC forecasters have considered potential impacts from El Niño and have slightly tilted the outlook (particularly the precipitation outlook) in that direction.
And if El Niño remains a no-show this year, what will this mean for the forecast? Actually, as you might expect, not much, because the forecasters understand the fact that El Niño has a 58% of developing, which also means that there’s a 42% chance that it won’t. To see how information about El Niño gets incorporated into the forecast, let’s take a look at the precipitation outlook. (El Niño often has a more robust influence on precipitation than on temperature.)
The winter precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern tier of the nation extending northward along the East Coast, as well as in southern Alaska, and drier-than-normal conditions in central Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This pattern is quite consistent with the average precipitation patterns seen during previous El Nino winters.
However, you’ll note that the largest probabilities on this outlook are all less than 50%. This means that while above-normal precipitation across the South is the most likely out of the 3 possibilities (below normal, near normal, or above normal), it’s more likely that we’ll see precipitation that is “not above-normal.” That is, the combined chance that the outcome will fall in one of the other two categories (near normal or below normal) is higher.
It’s like spinning a climate roulette wheel. While the “above” area is the biggest piece of the pie, the near-normal and even below-normal areas are not insignificant and could occur. These are very modest probabilities for an El Niño winter and reflect the reality that El Niño is not a sure bet for this winter. And even if it does develop, it’s likely to be a weak event, resulting in weak impacts.
For example, in contrast to this year’s ENSO situation, precipitation probabilities in Texas and Florida during the 2009-10 winter outlook exceeded 50% for above-normal rainfall, and they exceeded 70% during the peak of the 1997/98 event. In both cases, the most likely or favored result occurred, as wetter-than-average winters prevailed. This year our confidence level is not so high, but we still think the probability for above normal is higher than it would be purely due to chance, which would be 33.33%.
The temperature outlook favors a warmer-than-normal winter over Alaska, the Western United States, and northern New England, while below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the south-central and southeastern parts of the nation. Probabilities of above-normal temperature exceed 50% along the West Coast, so this region has a significantly reduced chance (just 15%) of seeing a colder-than-normal winter.
Making seasonal forecasts is a very challenging endeavor. Seasonal climate models are not as skillful as weather models, and phenomenon like El Niño or La Niña only provide some hints as to what might occur during an upcoming season. CPC issues probabilistic seasonal forecasts so users can take risk and opportunities into account when making climate-sensitive decisions.
However, keep in mind that these outlooks will primarily benefit those who play the long game. The maps show only the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but not the only possible outcome. For example, while the outlook favors above-normal temperatures in northern New England, it wouldn’t be shocking for temperatures this winter to be near-normal or even colder-than-normal. I just wouldn’t bet on it.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Are you trying to teach your grom or grandma how to surf but paddling out at Swami's isn't exactly the brightest idea? Let Professor Michael show you the way as the North County Surf blog this week has all the best spots when it's 1' and under. Doesn't sound exciting? Better then having the kids get pounded in the shorebreak at Marine Street and a trip to the ER! Check out the details on the blog as well as a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report- all of that and more in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is NOT a place to take your girlfriend out for her first time surfing. You instead paddle out on your 6'4" rounded pin, you set her up at the pool bar, and voila! Everyone's happy. For more pics of exotic locales, check out the work of Ben Hicks here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Taking the World By Storm
Sexiest Man Alive. AGAIN.
Was Attacked By Sigmund The Sea Monster
