THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Hope on the horizon?

SURF:

Not much action this past week and the drab weather added to the boredom.

Things are looking up though tomorrow as a new NW is filling in on the central Cal buoys tonight. Look for chest high waves in the AM then head high waves by sundown with overhead surf in SD. That swell holds into Saturday morning. Luckily we have a smaller reinforcing swell for Sunday with more shoulder high sets here and head high+ waves in SD. And good weather is on tap for Sunday too (more on that below in the Weather section). All in all some good waves this weekend and clearing skies. Finally.

Water temps are holding at 67 and the tides are mellow the next few days; about 3' at sunrise, down slightly to 2' mid-morning, up to 3.5' mid-afternoon, and down again to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After a fun weekend of surf, Monday has some leftovers and mid-week is looking pretty small.

We do though get a boost from the NW again on Thursday for more head high sets and overhead waves in SD. Just hoping the forecasted cold front below doesn't screw things up.

After that, models show a big storm forming in the Aleutians towards the end of next weekend which may give us a big NW around the 23rd/24th. Is it finally time to dust off those Rhino Chasers?

WEATHER:

Models are all over the place with the upcoming weather this week. A few days ago the models were showing high pressure setting up shop this weekend and warm sunny skies. Now they're showing a slight chance of showers this evening into tomorrow and the nice weather won't arrive until late Sunday into early next week. Models also showed some rain on Tuesday but that has since been shunted on the latest charts and it looks like MAYBE a shower or two around Thursday- and even then that's not looking promising. So until then, some cool conditions tomorrow, slightly better weather early next week, and cool conditions again late next week. And still no storms in sight! 

BEST BET:
In the near term, late tomorrow or 1st thing Saturday with the solid NW. Or take your chances the 2nd half of next week with more NW but a chance of showers to mess things up.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

For not having any weather around here besides the occasional low clouds and fog, our atmosphere from time to time likes to spice things up. One instance of course is the hot dry Santa Ana winds. The other is Island Band Showers. Never heard of it? It’s simple really; our offshore islands make their own little weather systems that drift on to our shores. Here’s how it happens:

1. After a storm or cold front moves through our area, the resulting W or NW winds behind it encounter one of the islands offshore from us. In our case- usually Catalina or San Clemente Island.
2. The air flows around the islands and where the air convergences on the other side, it rises, cools, and condenses like all good clouds should.
3. The clouds continue to grow as it’s pushed towards our shores. If there is enough moisture, the cloud will begin to produce rain. If strong enough, it may produce lightning, hail, and gusty winds.
4. Also, rotation may form where the air convergences behind the islands. As the clouds/storm grows, funnel clouds or waterspouts may form.

Amazing to think that our offshore islands are their own little tornado factories. Keep an eye on the islands this winter and see if you can spot the Island Band Showers after the passing of a cold front. And if you spot a funnel cloud of course- get in your basement Dorothy!
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:

All of you know EXACTLY what this feels like. You spot a big set on the horizon, start paddling like crazy outside, and you scratch over the shoulder with a big lump in your throat and your heart pounding a million miles an hour hoping you don't get sucked over the falls. BUT... you are a surfer of course and against your better judgement you just HAVE to take a peek into the pit even though it's the one trying to kill you. I guess you have to be a little crazy to be a surfer. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Prom King
Flying a Russian Bomber to the Comet with Kim Kardashian
Earned a Masters in Surfology