Fireworks for Fabio.
SURF:
Not a bad week for surf. A little small to start but the
last couple days have been fun with combo swell. And the water has been 70
degrees so that’s always a bonus. Today we have combo swell again from the
NW/SW for shoulder high sets but low pressure above is stirring up the low
clouds and S winds. The low also generated the NW windswell and as high
pressure starts to build tomorrow, the NW will back off. Look for the surf to
drop slightly tomorrow to the chest high range from the SW with just a touch of
NW.
Sunday morning looks to be waist to chest high before we get another slight
boost from the SW in the afternoon for chest high sets. Not exactly big this
weekend but fun.
Tides the next few days
are about 0’ at sunrise, up to 3.5’ at lunch, down slightly to 2’ in the
evening, and up again to 4’ at sunset.
FORECAST:
Got a tricky one here. I’ll get the easy stuff out of the
way first: The SW swell arriving late Sunday will peak for consistent chest
high surf on Monday.
Here’s the hard part now- the models for the past week
have been showing a major hurricane forming below Baja towards Monday the 2nd
and headed towards us. The tricky part is that it hasn’t formed yet and a
million things can happen before it explodes into Hurricane Fabio and sends us
surf late Thursday into Saturday. If it does, the OC will see better surf
towards Thursday while north SD won’t see much until Friday. Look for the OC to
see head high surf Thursday, overhead surf Friday, and well overhead surf on
Saturday morning (with the Wedge being 15’)? For north SD, look for maybe a
couple fun waves late Thursday, head high waves Friday, and maybe an overhead
set in far north San Diego County early Saturday. All of this could change of
course- it could be a foot or so smaller/bigger depending how Fabio’s hair
blows in the wind. Or at least how the wind blows- so make sure to keep up to
date on the latest conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
As far as the southern hemisphere goes, forecast charts show a disorganized but
large storm forming today which would shoot shoulder high sets our way for
Saturday into Sunday next weekend. Looking to be a good summer so far…
WEATHER:
Got low pressure above us today and tomorrow for breezy S
winds and the clouds sticking at the beaches like an unwanted house guest. The
low starts to exit the region on Sunday and we’ve got the normal night/morning
low clouds/fog and sunny days at the beaches by lunch. No major changes are in
the forecast for the next 5-6 days- hopefully high pressure builds slightly
next weekend for warmer temps at the beach and less clouds- and maybe a stray
cloud from Fabio depending on the size of the storm.
BEST BET:
We’ve got a little surf the next few days but all eyes are
on Fabio (never thought I’d say that in THE Surf Report). Next Friday/Saturday
with head high Fabio or next Saturday/Sunday with shoulder high southern hemi
swell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Been a busy season for hurricanes already- and we’re just 1
week into summer! If you read THE Surf Report last month (and here too), you came across reports that we were going to have a busier than usual
hurricane season. And so far the models have been right. We’ve had 5 named
storms and 2 of them have been major hurricanes (Aletta and Bud. Bud if you’ll
remember sent us surf but was overrun by that big southern hemi we had a few
weeks ago). So where do we actually stand? Well, according to NOAA’s
prediction:
- We should have an average of 17 tropical storms with a range of 14-20 (So far we’ve had 5 with the bulk of the season still 2 months away and Fabio coming down the road)
- An average of 9 hurricanes with a range of 7-12 (2 so far with Fabio coming)
- An average of 4 major hurricanes with a range of 3-6 (2 so far with Fabio coming)
In a nutshell, we’re looking pretty good so far. So what’s
with all the early hurricane activity? As reported back in February, La Nina was on it’s way out and we were headed towards neutral or even El Nino
conditions. (La Nina being dry and
colder water, El Nino being wetter and warmer water). The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this month has now upgraded us to an
El Nino ‘watch’ meaning there is a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the
late summer or early autumn, and an approximately 65% chance of El Niño
conditions in the winter. I’ll let NOAA explain:
Before we get into the potential for El Niño, let’s talk
about right now. We are in neutral, and forecasters expect that these
conditions will play on through the summer. The surface temperature of the
tropical Pacific Ocean is close to the long-term average in most areas, which
was smack-dab on the average in the latest weekly measurement.
Another interesting thing is the prominent pattern of
warmer-than-average surface temperatures north of the equator (which is fueling
our busy hurricane season), and cooler-than-average waters south of the
equator. This illustrates the strongly positive phase of the Pacific Meridional
Mode… which I’ll get to in a minute.
The atmosphere is also looking pretty neutral; warmer-than-average
waters tend to evaporate more water and warm the air above them, creating more
rising motion and clouds than average. Cooler waters are the reverse, resulting
in less cloud cover than average. During a La Niña event such as this past winter,
we saw fewer clouds over the central Pacific.
Most of the models predict sea surface temperatures in the
tropical Pacific will be more than 0.5°C warmer than the long-term average by
this fall—i.e., above the threshold for El Niño conditions. Several statistical
models, which make predictions by applying statistics to historical conditions,
are also currently predicting sea surface temperatures in the El Niño realm by
late fall. These models are often more conservative than the dynamical models,
and the fact that both sets are largely in agreement is lending forecasters
some confidence.
But wait, there’s more! The temperature of the water below
the surface of the equatorial Pacific has been elevated since March and the May
2018 subsurface heat content is about the 6th highest since 1979.
We care about the subsurface because it can provide a supply
of warm water to the surface. Thus, elevated subsurface temperatures are often
an early indicator that El Niño is on the way.
The positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode (visible
in the north-south warm-cool pattern from the sea surface temperature map
above) can also be an early indicator that conditions are favorable for El Niño
to develop. This pattern can encourage the trade winds (the near-surface
east-to-west winds along the equator) in the central Pacific to relax. The
trade winds ordinarily serve to cool the surface and keep warmer waters “piled
up” in the far western Pacific.
Speaking of relaxing trade winds… as we go to press, the
trade winds in the eastern tropical Pacific have weakened as a “westerly wind
burst” is taking place. (The effect of the Pacific Meridional Mode is usually
farther to the west, and attributing the cause of any particular wind burst can
be a difficult chicken-and-egg problem.) This westerly wind burst could work to
enhance warming conditions.
With all that said… it’s early yet. The winds along the
equator are difficult to predict more than a week in advance, and as much as
westerly wind bursts can help El Niño develop, so easterly wind bursts (when
the trade winds strengthen) can discourage El Niño. Forecasters feel that
current conditions are favorable for El Niño, so an El Niño Watch has been
raised. In summary, we have warmer than average water temps where our hurricanes
are forming and hopefully all signs will continue to point to an El Nino this
fall as we need the rain and big winter surf!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Reason #237,385 to move to New Zealand.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Dignitary
NBA Free Agent
Meeting With Kelly and Elon About Building A Surf Ranch On
Mars
