THE Surf Report 2/25/11

Fugly. Unless of course you're into storm surf like me.

SURF:
Last couple of weeks have been that transition from winter to fall. Usually in
winter we get a storm that rolls through then high pressure sets up for nice 75
degree weather at the beaches and long period overhead NW swells greet our
shores. In the spring we get fast moving storms that blow everything out and
junky windswell. This weekend we get the junky windswell scenario unfortunately.
Today is a dismal knee to waist high out of the NW and SW and the wind is
already blowing 10-15mph from the SW. We had a little increase out of the NW
this past Wednesday/Thursday and I was hoping it would increase more today but
no luck. Looks like the bulk of the swell will increase tomorrow but the storm
will be on top of us and any head high surf we do get will be blown to bits.
There should be some shoulder high waves out of the NW in north SD/OC tomorrow
morning, head high in south SD, and chest high in south OC. That increases about
a foot in all areas on Sunday morning then start to back off in the afternoon.
Hopefully the storm will have cleared out by then for sunny skies but NW wind
will probably be blowing behind the cold front- so clean conditions won't return
until Monday morning. All in all it looks like there will be surf this weekend
but stormy. For you hardy souls, tides the next few days are around 4' at
sunrise, down to 0' at lunch, and back up to 4' at sunset. Water is still cold
and in the high 50's. Keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
Monday looks to be cleaner as high pressure sets up but dying chest high NW will
be at our doorstep. Good news is that there is a small SW headed our way towards
Tuesday afternoon and a small NW for Wednesday. Combo spots at the beach breaks
may have some shoulder high peaks and clean conditions mid-week. Nothing big but
playful. And no rain and gusty winds thank goodness.

WEATHER:
If you liked last weekend's storm, then tonight and tomorrow is going to be
right up your alley. Looks like another cold, wet, and windy storm is bearing
down on us this evening. Rain totals should be around an inch at the coast and
winds will blow 15-20mph with gusts to 30 from the S tonight then switch W
tomorrow. Even look for thunderstorms above. The real story with this storm
though are the cold temps. So cold in fact that local foothills above 1500'
could see a dusting of snow. And temps at our beaches tomorrow may only be high
40's with lows in the high 30's. Ever wondered what's it's like to surf in
Iceland? Here's your chance. Run to Encinitas Surfboards today and load up on
gloves, booties, and a hood. After the storm exits Saturday night, Sunday looks
to be cool, clear, and breezy. Next week looks sunny and mild with temps in the
low to mid-60's.

BEST BET:
Depends what you're into. If you like peaky, uncrowded, windy, rainy, head high
surf, then tomorrow afternoon is the call. If you like peaky, crowded, light
wind, sunny, head high surf, then next Wednesday is for you. Personally I like
storm surf. I'm weird like that. Nothing like being in victory at sea conditions
to clear your head.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
For any surfer that has been fortunate to travel to tropical reefs, they know
the health of the reef is important for water quality, the shape of the wave,
and fish ecosystem below. What would the surfing world be without Teahupoo,
Pipeline, P-Pass, or Lance’s Right? The prestigious National Press Club in
Washington, DC this past week held a press launch for the Worlds Resources
Institute to discuss ‘Reefs at Risk: Global Threats Require Global Action’. The
opening keynote address was byJane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. Unfortunately her news wasn’t
good. In a condensed version of her speech (the full report can be found here),  Dr.
Lubchenco states: “This is a critical time for ocean ecosystems in general, but
especially for coral reefs. Mounting pressures on land, along the coast and in
the water converge in a perfect storm of threats to reefs. Since the last
‘Reefs at Risk’ report a decade ago, threats have gone from worrisome to dire.
Reef ecosystems are changing rapidly and radically, with profound consequences
for humanity. But what’s really at stake?
Preserving coral reefs is about protecting coastal communities:
• Coastlines protected by reefs are more stable, more resistant to erosion, than
those without. Up to 90% of the energy from wind-generated waves is absorbed by
reef ecosystems.
Preserving coral reefs is about preserving cultures:
• As an example, the most linguistically diverse place on earth, Papua New
Guinea, is home to approximately 820 different languages and to many people who
are dependent on coral reefs.
Preserving coral reefs is about food security:
• We need to expand the way we think about food security far beyond just grains
and livestock on land to include fisheries, given that vast numbers of people in
developing countries rely on their coastal waters for essential protein.
• 500 million people worldwide depend daily upon coral reefs for their food and
livelihoods. That’s 200 million more people than live in the U.S. alone.
Preserving coral reefs is about ensuring thriving economies:
• It is difficult to put a precise dollar value on many of the benefits provided
by coral reef ecosystems, but by any estimate they are globally and locally
valuable. Tourism, reef fisheries and shoreline protection are particularly
noteworthy.
But most of all, preserving coral reefs is about our collective commitment to
one another, to the rest of life on the planet and to our future. A deadly
combination of local and global threats are putting these important ecosystems
and their services at risk. The potential impacts from climate change were
demonstrated graphically by the extensive coral bleaching in the Caribbean basin
in 2005 and in Southeast Asia and the Coral Triangle region in 2010. In
addition, ocean acidification – the change in ocean chemistry due to increased
CO2 in the atmosphere – had barely made it into the scientific literature 10
years ago, but is now understood to inflict potentially irreversible damage to
our ocean ecosystems. Extreme bleaching events kill corals outright, while less
extreme events can weaken corals, affecting their reproductive potential,
reducing growth and calcification, and leaving them vulnerable to disease.
Coral bleaching has negative impacts not only on coral reef ecosystems, but also
on the human communities that depend on coral reefs for food and income. If the
current trends persist, the projections in this report tell us that 20 years
from now, roughly half of reefs globally will experience thermal stress
sufficient to induce severe bleaching in most years. Within the next 50 years,
this percentage is expected to grow to more than 95%. In addition to thermal
stress, corals face the added threat of ocean acidification. Ocean
acidification is a global-scale change in the basic chemistry of oceans that is
currently underway as a direct result of the increased carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and ocean. As more CO2 is absorbed by the ocean, sea water becomes
more acidic. The change in chemistry means it is more difficult for corals to
build their skeletons. Reduced calcification rates limit a reef’s ability to
grow, stay healthy and withstand stress. By 2030, fewer than 1/2 the world’s
reefs are projected to be in areas where the level of calcium carbonate is ideal
for coral growth, suggesting that coral growth rates could be dramatically
reduced due to ocean acidification. By 2050, only about 15% of reefs will be in
areas where calcium carbonate levels are adequate for coral growth. Reef
ecosystems are globally important; their continued existence is a moral
imperative for the global community; healthy reefs are also the life-line for
local communities. Beacons of hope emerge from multiple places around the
world. One such beacon comes from Indonesia. In remote villages of the Bird’s
Head Seascape – an expanse of north-eastern Indonesia considered the epicenter
of biodiversity within the Coral Triangle – village leaders and resource
managers have formed a soccer league specifically as a means to foster
cooperation and exchange knowledge about their approaches to coral reef
conservation. They travel by every means possible – mules, small water craft,
mopeds and rickshaws – to soccer games, ultimately building a larger, stronger,
more resilient community of practitioners to protect these valuable resources
and the communities dependent upon them. Another creative effort is underway in
the Caribbean. Through an effort of The Nature Conservancy, fishers from Pedro
Bank, Jamaica -- the only remaining place in Jamaica where you can still make a
living by fishing – were brought together with fishers from Belize. This
“Fishers Exchange” exposed the shock and dismay of the Belizeans as they witness
the scope of the devastation of Pedro Bank in Jamaica; and the amazement of the
Jamaicans as they snorkel among teeming fish in Belize’s marine protected areas.
Off the waters of Belize, the Pedro Bank fishers saw the value of marine
protected areas and well-managed fisheries. With work and commitment, they still
have an opportunity to preserve and recover their natural heritage and protect
the reefs and the fisheries that are the foundation of their way of life. It
will take a herculean effort to reverse the current trajectory and leave healthy
ocean ecosystems to our children and our grandchildren. I am encouraged by
numerous signs:
• the increasing number of local community efforts that are underway, bringing
ingenuity and passion;
• the successes of various restoration efforts, giving hope for reversing
trends;
• increased scientific engagement informing choices;
• critical philanthropic efforts enabling proof of concept, development of
powerful networks, and translation of scientific knowledge into practice; and
• especially the engagement of young people who have a knack for tackling
seemingly impossible tasks and bringing fresh energy and thinking.
We have the chance to reverse the decline of coral reefs and bring them back to
health. This report should serve as the wake-up call: now is the time to act.
Healthy oceans should be everyone’s business. Greater awareness and engagement
are needed to protect and restore the global treasures that are coral reefs.
How the world rises to this challenge is a reflection of our commitment to one
another and to the natural world that gives us sustenance, wisdom and a
reflection of our souls."

BEST OF THE BLOG:
The Association of Surfing Professionals world tour is officially back in full
swing today on the Gold Coast of Oz. Check out the details at North County Surf.Blogspot!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Since it's going to be unbelievably cold this weekend, I thought a shot of
surfing in Iceland would warm your soul. From the website 'World Hum: Best
Travel Stories On The Internet', I give you snow on the beach, 6/5/4 wetsuits,
and icicles hanging from your face. Awesome.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Always First In Line
Mascot
Surfed Kaena Point With Ace Cool

The Circus Is Coming To Town!

It's back! The Association of Surfing Professionals World Tour is back and is starting it's three ring circus on the Gold Coast of Australia later today. It really didn't seem like much of an offseason as there were a lot of great tributes and reflections to Andy the past few months as well as a lot of press on Kelly hitting 10 world titles. But the show is back in full swing with the The Quiksilver Pro being held at the famed Superbank where warm water, spinning sand sucking rights, and high performance is the norm. The tour has been scaled back this year in the amount of surfers on tour (34 in 2011 vs. 44 in 2010) which is a good thing- you'll only be watching the best of the best from the start of the event.

And this year's tour line up looks to be all time: heavy weights such as Slater, Taj, Parko, and Mick go against the new guard in Kerr, Jordy, Ace, and Bourez. Unfortunately Dane had offseason knee surgery and has to miss the Quik Pro but there will still be plenty of tail blows from the likes of Julian, Owen, Dusty, and Gudang. And if you really want to turn up your sporting event watching exprerience, get all nerdy like me and join a fantasy league. That's right, fantasy leagues aren't just for baseball and football geeks anymore. One of the best surfing fantasy leagues is Fantasy Action Sports League. It's simple to join- just sign up with a password and email and you're on your way. They'll 'give' you $150 million to pick the guys you think will do best in the contest. With my money, I'm thinking some of the best bets will be:
-Taj: He always does good at this contest.
-Mick: Ditto
-Parko: He's a steal for this contest- he's cheap because his ranking is low due to last year's missed time with an injury
-Cory: He's cheap because he's a wildcard and should do good at the event- he's got tour experience and is a great backside tuberider.
That's all I'm givin' ya though. I want to win the $30,000 in cash and prizes this year.

Surf Check 2/22/11

No real surf to speak of the last few days. Clean little NW/SW combo today but only about waist high. Some beachbreaks around town had some rideable waves if you got on it early and with the incoming tides. Nothing to skip work over but if you had the time you could have gotten a couple turns in.

Currently we have feeble 3' NW swell on the Point Conception buoy along with 1' SW swell. 

Things start to change though in the coming days as some fast moving storms in the Pacific head our way to give us surf and unfortunately rain/wind again. Looks like the surf starts to build slightly tomorrow from the NW- only an additional foot- maybe best beaches in south SD will have a chest high set by sundown- but don't count on much. The better surf will be towards Thursday evening and Friday- just when the rain and wind arrive again. Typical.

You can see in the image above that swell starts to fill in towards Thursday while the bulk is headed our way for Friday. Nothing too big but head high sets in north SD/OC, overhead sets in south SD, and some waist to chest waves in south OC. Looks like clouds thicken up Thursday and maybe some showers late Friday. There's a better chance of rain on Saturday. Not as big as the storm last weekend but at least it will add to our rain totals as we're still years behind in our drought status. Long story short, Friday morning may be the call as the storm won't be on top of us yet and we'll have new NW in the water. Plan your surf session accordingly!  

THE Surf Report 2/18/11

Wet and Wild.

SURF:
Little NW/SW this past week and semi nice conditions fell apart on Wednesday/Thursday as a new bigger NW filled and a quick front moved through the area. Today all hell breaks loose as a stronger storm bears down on the area. This morning we have some clean NW in the water with a touch of SW for head high waves but the winds will start to blow from the S later in the day as the storm approaches. Look for a real mess tonight and tomorrow. Unfortunately as the storm exits the area the swell drops too. Sunday looks to be semi-clean with some leftover chest high NW and leftover SW. Water may be dirty too from all the rain. It's winter again I guess. Tides the next few days are 6' at 9am, -1' at 3pm, and back to 1' at sunset. Water temps are still high 50's- no new news there. Keep up to date on the swell and conditions at Twitter/NorthCountySurf.

FORECAST:
After the storm rolls through this weekend and the swells drop, we're left with semi-clean conditions early in the week and no real surf to speak of. By Tuesday afternoon the surf picks up out of the NW but it's pretty N, so look for head high waves in south county SD by Wednesday, chest high waves in north county SD/OC, and waist high waves in south OC. The NW continues to increase the second half of the week for another foot or two in size but it looks like we have junky conditions again- nothing major but just enough to make it bumpy.

WEATHER:
As advertised above, the weather takes a turn for the worse this afternoon as a solid winter storm moves into the area. Winds increase this afternoon and by tonight will gust around 25mph from the SW. Looks like decent rain with this system too as over an inch may hit the coast and cold temps in the mountain will help with the snow development- possibly a foot in SD mountains and 2' in the San Bernardino mountains. Waterspouts in the local waters are not of the question too. Should be a fun night tonight through Saturday. The storm leaves by Sunday for breezy NW winds and clearing skies. Early next week looks to be cool with sunny conditions but another weaker storm may be on tap for the second half of the week. Hope you patched the holes in your roof like I did last week.

BEST BET:
If you can stall going into work this morning, get it now! If not, maybe Wednesday as a new NW fills in and the next storm may be weaker so it won't mess up conditions as bad.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
From marinebio.org : Pop quiz! Just in case you get called up for Jeopardy...

Sharks attack some 50-75 people each year worldwide, with perhaps 8-12 fatalities, according to data compiled in the International Shark Attack File. Although shark attacks get a lot of attention, this is far less than the number of people killed each year by elephants, bees, crocodiles, lightning or many other natural dangers. On the other side of the ledger, we kill somewhere between 20-100 million sharks every year through fishing activities.

Of the 350 or so shark species, about 80% grow to less than 5’and are unable to hurt people or rarely encounter people. Only 32 species have been documented in attacks on humans, and an additional 36 species are considered potentially dangerous.

Almost any shark 6’or longer is a potential danger, but 3 species have been identified to repeatedly attack: the great white, tiger, and bull shark. All 3 are found worldwide, reach large sizes and eat large prey such as marine mammals or sea turtles. More attacks on swimmers, free divers, scuba divers, surfers and boats have been reported for the great white shark than for any other species. However, some 80% of all shark attacks probably occur in the tropics and subtropics, where other shark species dominate and Great white sharks are relatively rare.

The oceans cover 71% (and rising) of the Earth's surface and contain 97% of the Earth's water. Less than 1% is fresh water, and 2-3% is contained in glaciers and ice caps (and decreasing).

90% of all volcanic activity occurs in the oceans.

The top ten feet of the ocean hold as much heat as the entire atmosphere.

The average depth of the Atlantic Ocean, with its adjacent seas, is 10,931 feet. The greatest depth 27,496 feet is in the Puerto Rico Trench.

The Pacific Ocean, the world's largest water body, occupies a third of the Earth's surface. The Pacific contains about 25,000 islands (more than the total number in the rest of the world's oceans combined), almost all of which are found south of the equator.

BEST OF THE BLOG:
Tired of your fullsuit seeping in cold water this chilly winter and can't afford a new one? Or maybe you're just sentimental for the first wetsuit you ever owned and can't part with it. If so, check out Swell Stuff, a great little local shop in Leucadia and a darn fine wetsuit repair establishment. For more details, have a look at the post below from Tuesday the 15th!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

There are millions of clubs around the world. You've got the 4-H Club, night clubs, glee clubs, golf clubs, and the famous (to you and I) Australian Boardriders Clubs. One little known club in the south Pacific is the Pohnpei Surf Club. Not sure what the membership dues are, but I'd pay anything to have a shot at P-Pass here. Even sell my kids! (Just kidding honey).

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Ghost Writer
World's First Trillionaire
Shaped a 3'8" Five Fin But Having A Hard Time Riding It

Employee of the Month

If you've ever thought about owning your own business, then you understand the hardest part is figuring out what void needs to be filled and then capitalizing on it. In the case of Swell Stuff it's about location, community involvement, and knowing that no one likes a ripped wetsuit in the dead of winter! In the heart of Leucadia sits a homegrown surf shop where everything inside is local and community based. Started by Lisa Hetman 3 years ago, it was a long and winding road to get the idea to fruition. Lisa grew up in Minnesota and then worked in the fashion industry in New York City. Deciding the rat race wasn't for her, she moved out west to San Francisco so she could combine her love of surfing and fashion. By chance, she followed a friend to Leucadia and decided north county was the place to settle down. It took awhile to get the exact location she wanted at 1114 North Coast Highway 101 in Leucadia but it's paid off as Lisa can bike to work and has a studio in back where she makes various products for her shop like beanies, board bags, and the Cinch Sac- a unique wetsuit bag and changing mat.

Up front is where you can drop off your wetsuit to get repaired in just a few short days. Lisa's commitment to quality and customer service has earned her loyal customers from San Diego to San Francisco. Yes, San Fran- you can actually ship her suits to be fixed if you can't stop by and drop them off. Amazingly, Lisa's most popular marketing techniques are word of mouth referrals and people coming across the shop on the internet. If you Google 'wetsuit repair' Swell Stuff is the 4th name you'll find. Not bad for a little shop out of funky Leucadia.  Lisa has two employees, Denise and Ale, who help run the shop as well organize community gatherings during the Leucadia Nights and LeucadiART Walk events as well as their own 'board swaps'. So if you're tired of having your wetsuit trickle in water during those cold early morning winter sessions, make sure to stop by Swell Stuff, get your suit fixed, grab some goods, and talk a little surf while your at it with Lisa and the crew. 

Surf Check 2/14/11

Happy Valentines Day to all of you in love with your surfboards. As the late great Mark Foo said "My board rides shotgun and chicks that don't like, don't ride". Classic. Today we just had a little waist high+ leftover SW in the water while NW was building off the Oregon/CA border.

As you can see in the graphic above, the winds are blowing around 43 knots (over 50 mph) off the WA/OR coasts. There is also some life in the nor-Cal buoys as the California buoy is 13' this evening and central Cal is around 7-9'. That should give us a little bump tomorrow for chest high waves in the afternoon from the NW.

The real story though are the storms headed our way for Tuesday night until at least Saturday. In the image above, the swell generated by it will build Wednesday and really hit our beaches on Thursday. Unfortunately it's going to be stormy but expect well overhead surf in all locations. Right now the storm is bearing down on nor-Cal and the Sierras have a high wind watch. Gusts up to 120 mph at the top of the ridges are forecasted. That would translate to a category 3 hurricane. Solid. We should get less wind down here but expect some 30mph gusts. Rain totals over the few days may be a couple inches. Hopefully there will be some little rideable waves tomorrow before everything goes to hell!

THE Surf Report 2/11/11

Calm before the storm.

SURF:

Beautiful conditions again this week but not much surf. We had some small NW but nothing major. Just enough to keep the wintertime spots rideable. Today we have some leftover NW with a touch of tiny SW. Most spots in north SD/OC are waist high with chest high sets. Southern SD is around chest high+ and southern OC is waist high. The good news is that the weather is clean again today and tomorrow it actually warms up a few degrees. Should be good beach weather. Maybe paddle your groms out into the line-up for some lessons.  Saturday looks to be pretty small and Sunday starts off small too but we have some new small NW filling in later in the day. Maybe before sundown there will be a couple chest high sets. All in all good weather this weekend but no real surf. Water temps are still high 50’s and tides the next few days are 3’ at sunrise, 1’ mid-day, and back to 3’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the surf and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

After a small weekend, we have a little bump on Monday from the NW for chest high+ waves and things start to build towards Tuesday night from the NW again but conditions worsen. We’ve got a few weather systems lined-up that will give us surf but junky weather accompanies it. By Wednesday we should have chest high+ sets in north SD/OC, head high+ sets in south SD, and waist high+ waves in south OC but south winds and showers are in the mix. Waves actually increase Thursday and even more Friday morning for well overhead surf in SD and slightly smaller in the OC. Conditions may clean up slightly- but showers are on our heels again towards next weekend. And maybe more surf for next weekend too. There is also some small waist high+ SW headed our way for next week but it will be taken over by the NW swells and storms. Looks like lots of waves for the second half of next week but wind/showers take over. Hey- at least it keeps the crowds to a minimum.

WEATHER:

Kiss the good weather goodbye. We’ve got great weather on tap for the weekend but fog/low clouds return Monday and thicken Tuesday in approach of the rain on Wednesday. Models show a few fronts lined up in the Pacific and they can’t agree on the strength but we should at least get a couple shots of rain- looks like Wednesday and maybe again Friday. Basically we’ll be getting normal weather for February- cool, rainy, windy weather. I’m assuming high pressure will take control next weekend and maybe the week of the 21^st we’ll be back to normal

BEST BET:

Tough call here: It’s small and beautiful today, slightly bigger Monday with the return of low clouds/fog or bigger surf next Friday and the chance of junky weather. What are you into?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you went through the elementary school system in California, then you’re familiar the almost weekly drills of hiding under your desk for the ‘Big One’ drill. No, not an attack by Godzilla (that would be cool though), but rather an 8.0 earthquake in California that scientists claim was to happen back in the 70’s, then 80’s, then maybe the 90’s, and now I think they’ve given up. Regardless, scientists have a new scare for us: The Megastorm. The L.A. Times this week reported that such a storm, occurring every 100 to 200 years, would inundate the fertile Central Valley farmlands, trigger widespread landslides and cause flood damage to 1 in 4 homes. Remember that beast of a week last December where the local mountains got 2’ of rain and 40mph winds? ‘Megastorm’ would eat that for breakfast. There would be an atmospheric river of moisture from the tropical Pacific hitting California with up to 10 feet of rain and hurricane-force winds over several weeks. Seriously. My house wouldn’t make it. And normal gale force 35 mph winds in our outer waters over a few days create overhead storm surf for us. Just think what hurricane force winds over several weeks would do. The ocean road between Caridff and Seaside- gone. The Newport Peninsula- washed away. Scientists, engineers and emergency planners used flood mapping, climate change projections and geologic flood history to simulate a hypothetical storm so intense that it occurs only every 100 to 200 years. The study isn't meant to be a forecast that such a fierce storm is imminent, but rather a push by scientists to publicize the risk of a catastrophe that they say is unfamiliar to most Californians. In the scenario — powerful back-to-back storms — floods could require about 1 1/2 million people to evacuate and cause more than $300 billion in property damage. The economic loss would be four times that of a very large earthquake. The simulation was based on the most severe storm event on record in California, a 45-day series of storms that started in December 1861 and, according to the Geological Survey, caused such extensive flooding that the Sacramento Valley was turned into "an inland sea, forcing the state Capitol to be moved temporarily from Sacramento to San Francisco, and requiring Gov. Leland Stanford to take a rowboat to his inauguration." (So let’s see- if these storms happen around every 150 years and the last one was 1861, then we’re due this year! Stoke!) The Geologists studying prehistoric flood deposits found evidence of even larger storms that occurred about every 300 years. Scientists project storms of that magnitude to become more frequent and powerful as a result of global warming. This I believe. Notice what an odd summer and winter we’ve had so far. It’s either 1 or the other- heat wave or stormy in the winter and this past summer was just darn cold! The exact effects of a colossal storm would depend on weather patterns that cannot be predicted until about a week before they strike. But the study identified some of the most vulnerable areas. Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area would be especially susceptible to the floodwaters of overflowing rivers. A 300-mile-long expanse of the Central Valley would be underwater, with substantial losses of crops, livestock and urban structures. The rains would overwhelm much of the state's flood protection system, especially in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta area, where levees aren't designed to withstand the flow predicted in such a storm. Landslides would wash out key portions of roads, highways and railroads. Flooding would disrupt the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Power, water and sewer lines could sustain damage that would take months to repair. "It's an extreme but plausible storm" that would become more catastrophic the longer it lasted, said Mark Jackson, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service's Oxnard office. "Our landscape can really handle quite a bit of rain. But when you get two storms back to back, you reach saturation, and the flood control systems are pushed over capacity." Long story short, go out and build your ark this weekend.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

In case you were buried in paperwork this week and didn’t have time to see my North County Surf blog on your lunch break, here’s what you missed: The future of wave machines, snowboards for $199, Surf Check pics from around town, the Employee of the Month, and more. What else are you going to do with your free time?!  Check it out!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Ever surfed Lanzarote? Ever heard of Lanzarote? Me neither. It’s interesting what you come across on the internet. Talking cats. Shady people. North County Surf blogs. And the Lanzarote Surf Camp. It’s part of the Canary Islands chain off Spain and amazingly has a population of 140,000 on such a small island. Now that the floodgates have been opened around the surf at Tavarua, maybe Lanzarote is the next great surf destination? Never know ‘til you go…

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Bloggin’ Since ‘11

The Last Guitar Hero

The Little Known Hobgood Triplet

Deal Alert! Batten Down The Hatches!

Latest forecast models are hinting at high pressure breaking down this weekend and rain returning to southern California next week. Looks like the marine layer returns on Monday, clouds thicken Tuesday with increasing winds, then showers and maybe heavier rain on Wednesday. Long range charts show potentially more rain next weekend. And you know what that means- snow in the local mountains as well as the big boys Tahoe and Mammoth. So forget all that 'summer' weather we've been having and stock up on your snow goods! This week's Deal Alert comes from Seshday where Nomis snowboards and outerwear are up to 54% off. Want to go big like Simon Chamberlain?! Here's your chance. As with all Seshday sales, it's for a limited time so when it's gone, it's gone. And since you're a North County Surf follower, Seshday is hooking us up with an added bonus of 5% off on purchases over $50. Just add the code SESHREP4 during check out. And if you get trapped in some crazy blizzard, don't blame me. Now get out there!

Surf Check 2/9/11

Fun surf today. The weak front that moved through yesterday kicked up some NW windswell last night. Even though the bulk of the swell peaked last night, there are still some fun chest high+ waves in north county SD/OC with some head high waves down in south county SD. Look for the swell to drop through the day and be pretty small tomorrow. So get on it asap! Winds are out of the NNE so depending where you are, you may have offshore winds or sideshore winds on the lefts. Tides are pretty medium all day- only hitting 3' after lunch.

Things get quiet the next few days unfortunately. Looks like we may get a bump towards Monday out of the NW but nothing too exciting. Charts though do show a more solid swell lining up for the middle of next week- unfortunately rainy windy weather may be associated with it. I guess it's better to have solid junky surf then no surf and good conditions. Right?

Turn On The Hype Machine!

Teaser I from wavegarden on Vimeo.

There was some mysterious rumor going around yesterday that there was this secret wave machine in Spain and it's big unveiling is happening February 15th. What's interesting about the videos is that they show a wave being pushed along a shoreline of a pond, lake, or ditch and they put plastic sheets along the shoreline to stop erosion. Most wave machines of course are 100% man made in an outdoor pool or housed in a dome. What the Spanish wave machine must mean is that it's portable and you just drop it in a body of water.  The videos look legit- I don't think they're doctored. The waves aren't that big- maybe waist high+ but I'm assuming you can make a bigger wave with a better machine or different type of body of water/shoreline to focus the energy from the machine. Regardless, have a look at the videos and decide for yourself if this thing looks fun or not...

Surf Check 2/7/11

Another small clean day of surf. Winds this afternoon are variable- about 10mph from the NW in south San Diego, around 7mph from the SW in north San Diego, and just barely out of the S in the OC. Air temps are mid-70's. Unfortunately the buoys aren't doing much. You'll notice the north Pacific has a weak 5' swell from 320 degrees- pretty N for us so not much is hitting our beaches. There is also some small 1' S from 165 degrees- pretty S so that's not aimed at us to well also!

Regardless, tomorrow should be pretty small again but we do have some northwest windswell/groundswell filling in late Tuesday so Wednesday morning may be the call with head high+ waves in north San Diego/OC, overhead in south Diego, and waist high+ in south OC. Tomorrow there is a weak front coming through- no precipitation at this time- but the marine layer will return and cool our air temps. By Wednesday high pressure sets up again and we have good weather. And with the new swell, should be a fun day of surf. Speaking of weather, looks like the models are hinting at high pressure lasting through the upcoming weekend then storms start to pick away at it.

If you'll notice the graphic above from the Climate Prediction Center, it looks like we have a 40% chance of above normal rain happening during the 2/15-2/21 timeframe. It's too early to say how strong the storms will be, but considering the sunny warm weather we've had the past few weeks, we're about due for some rain anyway. Enjoy your winter tan while you can!

Employee of the Month

Always been a fan of people who start their own businesses. There's something to be said for walking away from the 9-5 cubicle and heading out on your own without a safety net. One of those people is Jonathan Hanwit. A surfer originally from Virginia Beach, home of WRV, the East Coast Surfing Championships, and Wes Laine, Jonathan moved to the west coast in search of more waves. With his wife Guusje Bendeler, in 2003 they formed Parallax in San Diego. The idea was to bring a branding and interactive agency that creates precise messaging and smart visuals. After growing the last 7 years, they moved to downtown Encinitas. Guujse says they needed more office space, Jonathan says it was to be closer to the surf of Encinitas.

Regardless, Parallax wants to bring graphic and interactive designs that influence how people think and react in the world. Clients range from product focused start-ups to service oriented Fortune 500 companies such as Qualcomm. So if your company needs help with branding, campaigns, interactive, print or advertising, make sure to give them a call. As long as the surf isn't firing.

Surf Check 2/5/11

Good morning surfer! Still have some fun NW in the water this morning. The Point Conception buoy has dropped slightly- yesterday it was around 8' at 17 seconds from 280 degrees (waves around town were about head high+ from the west) and today it's 6' at 12 seconds from 300 degrees- looks to be about shoulder high and has turned more towards the northwest. High tide is around 10 AM- a 5' tide and is dropping to 0' around 4pm. There is also some small SW in the water- only about knee high though- maybe waist high in the OC. Since the dominant swell is the NW groundswell, beaches tend to be pretty lined up. If you'll notice on the video above, reefs are the best bet. It's also COLD. Air temps this morning at dawn were high 30's/low 40's. That's almost a 20 degree difference from the 57 degree water temp. So cold in fact, steam was coming off the ocean. Hope you have a 4/3 in your stable. Look for the surf to drop some more tomorrow- so get it now!

THE Surf Report 2/4/11

I never want winter to end.

SURF:
Ok, ok. So I was crying like a baby in December when the rains flooded my house, knocked over an old growth tree in my yard, and sent the ants scurrying to higher ground- which happend to be my family room. But alas! The sun has come out, the offshore winds have blown, and the surf's been fun! My how I have a short term memory. Yesterday new WNW swell started to fill in and today we have good shoulder high+ surf in SD and slightly smaller in OC due to the island blockage. There is some small waist high SW in the water too so south OC won't miss out on all the fun. The swells only drop slightly for Saturday but it will still be rideable with nice weather. For Sunday it's looking smaller and the nice conditions hold. Should be a fun weekend regardless. Water temps are high 50's and tides this weekend are 3' at sunrise, 5' at 10am, dropping to 0' at 4:30pm, and 1' at sunset. Keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:
After a fun Saturday and a smaller Sunday, we're looking at an even smaller Monday and early Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon though we have some NW filling in and by Wednesday we should be back to chest high+ for north county SD/OC, head high sets for south SD, and waist high for south OC. Forecast charts show some activity in the southern hemi but most of it is headead towards South America. Hopefully we'll get a glancing blow and some waist-chest SW mid-week. Models aren't showing anything too significant later in the week for the North Pacific unfortunately- maybe some waist to chest high stuff towards Friday.

WEATHER:
Looks like no signficant weather changes in the short term- another nice weekend on tap with cool weather and no real clouds to speak of. There's a weak front moving through Monday afternoon so we may get some drizzle Tuesday but then high pressure sets up again for offshore flow towards Wednesday/Thursday. Looks like La Nina is finally in control.

BEST BET:
I'm probably going to have to say today. Another day of nice weather and we have a new WNW and smaller SW in the water. Wednesday looks to be fun too with more NW and smaller SW AND good weather again but I think today's swells may be slightly bigger. No complaints though- I'll take it!

NEWS OF THE WEEK:
You knew it was coming. My mouth is too big to be contained on email. I'm hitting the big time! I'm getting my own show on MTV! You know that's a lie. They can't afford me with all those Jersey Shore salaries. So I'm doing the next best thing- I've started a blog. Now before you start laughing and delete this email, hear me out! There's a lot of good information out there that I can't fit into 1 weekly email. Plus, let's be honest, you're only doing about 1 hour of work everyday and you cruise the interent the other 7, so why not be useful and check out North County Surf Blogspot? I come across deals all day long and I feel bad hoarding them all to myself. Plus, if I see some suspicious buoy activity and the swell of the century is coming- you need to know about it before the Friday Surf Report email! You'll find it all right there at NorthCounty Surf Blogspot. I also include action sports news, happenings around town, basically anything you should know about to shave some stress off your life. So make sure to check it out, bookmark it, and tell your friends about it! That way I really will get that MTV deal and become the king of all media!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

While category 5 Cylcone Yasi was devastating Queensland on Australia's northeast coast, Taj Burrow and his mates were destroying sand sucking right handers on the west coast. The crew at Epic Swells in Oz documented it for all of us to enjoy (or rub our faces in it- not sure). You be the judge.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Gentlemand AND a Scholar
Super Bowl Chump
2nd to Reno at the '74 World Championships

Buoy Buddy

Not sure if you've come across this website or not, but it's a lifesaver for me. In the winter time it's the first one I check when I wake up in the morning and the last one I check before I put my head on my pillow. The site is from Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Coastal Data Information Program (or SIOCDI for short- just kidding- that's not really short). If you follow my Twitter surf and weather updates, you'll see that sometimes I give readings from the 'Point Conception' buoy. In reality it's named the Harvest buoy and sits just off of Point Conception. The reason I'm a big fan of this site is for three reasons:

1. It has an uncanny ability to predict wave heights for W and NW swells in north county San Diego. Since all swells at our local beaches are dependent on swell angle, the information shown above is vital to gauging how big the waves are going to be. If you'll look at the 'N. Pac.' (North Pacific) reading it says 7.5 feet at 14 seconds from 270 degrees. 270 degrees is pretty head on for north county as we face 240 degrees- so we'll have little swell decay when the waves finally break at our local beaches. For this particular reading, wave heights are around head high for us. Now if the reading was over 300 degrees, the swell has to bend quite a bit to fit our 240 angle, so the wave heights may be 1/2 the 7.5' swell- so the waves around town here may only turn out to be waist to chest high.

2. Another important reading from the Harvest buoy is the swell interval. For the N. Pac. reading above, it's about 14 seconds. Storms that form far away will have readings above 12 seconds. So this 14 second reading is probably a groundswell. Windswell on the other hand is short interval and choppy- somewhere in the 8-10 second range- and probably short lived. Good solid lined up groundswells from the middle to far part of the North Pacific will be in the 18-20 second range and may last a few days. Let's say the Harvest Buoy for a few days was a meager 4' at 10 seconds. Then one morning you wake up and notice it's 8'at 20 seconds. You'll know you've got some serious swell on the way. Let's say 24 hours later you see a reading of 4' at 12 seconds- you know the swell has passed it's peak.

3. What's also interesting about using this info is if it has been flat for a few days and you notice the reading pop up to 8' at 20 seconds, it will take about 6 hours for the swell to get from Point Conception to San Diego. So don't go running down to your local break right away- you have some time to get ready.

As far as the S. Pac. (South Pacific) readings go, it's not summer time yet and it's a whole other story with that one...

Another Action Sports Breakthrough

The great thing about action sports is that it's always been a trendsetter in our culture. Whether it be forward thinking apparel, combining fashion/music/art, or taking the word sports and making it 'extreme', there's always something new brewing in the cauldron. What's next on the horizon in our world of retail is a company called Action Sports Ready (ASR). Like all innovative brands in our industry (see FCS, Quiksilver, Creatures of Leisure, Simon Anderson's tri-fins, etc.), this idea was also hatched in Australia. The company's mantra is pretty straightforward: With the explosion of technical products in action sports (like composite surfboards, $100 boardshorts, and wetsuits made for astronauts), it's hard for the retail salesperson to keep up to date on all the innovations and in turn they aren't selling efficiently as they could be. That's where Action Sports Ready comes into play. The idea is to get retail staff up to speed with the new products coming from the manufacturers. Companies like Hurley create short 45 second videos which are hosted on ASR's website and the salesperson reviews them and takes a quiz. Once educated over a period of time, the salesperson can become certified. What's great about the concept is that the salesperson becomes knowledgeable and in turn is more comfortable selling the products. So the manufacturer moves more goods, the shop increases it's bottom line, the retail salesperson broadens their action sports career path, and the customer is happy that they made the right purchase. In the short 9 months it's been running in Australia, they've signed up Quiksilver, Electric Visual, Sanuk, DC Shoes, Hurley, Rhythm, Global Surf Industries, Billabong, FCS, Rusty, Futures Fins, Roxy, and Skull Candy. Retailers have taken notice and ASR is on track for nearly 50% shop involvement so far with the goal being 100% in the near future. With that success, Action Sports Ready is aiming to have a similar program here in the states by spring time. Now if we can somehow get Action Sports Ready to create the first ever Action Sports College...

Deal Alert! Ridiculously Cheap New Channel Islands Surfboards!

For all of you that are into the ridiculously small board craze right now, boy have I got a deal for you. Brand new Channel Islands surfboards by none other than the godfather himself Al Merrick for $300. That's almost 60% off the $700 retail price! But of course with all things that seem too good to be true, there are a couple catches. First off, you have to be into the small board craze. The boards for sale are 5'9" x 18.5" x 2.25". For any of you that swear by a 6'4" x 19" x 3" and consider Occy your idle, this isn't for you. Secondly, it's Surftech's Tuflite construction which is a little more buoyant (good for small waves though) and has different flex characteristics  than normal old school foam boards- so it may take a few surfs to get used to it. But if you're looking to take your small wave game up a notch, this is the board to get you on tour. It's the K Small model (I guess the 10 X champ endorses it), is a FCS tri-fin set up, has a slight single bump, and includes the new diamond tail which is all the rage with the kids. Long story short, whether you're into the small board craze or not, you can't argue with a $300 Merrick.