Calm before the storm.
SURF:
Beautiful conditions again this week but not much surf. We had some small NW but nothing major. Just enough to keep the wintertime spots rideable. Today we have some leftover NW with a touch of tiny SW. Most spots in north SD/OC are waist high with chest high sets. Southern SD is around chest high+ and southern OC is waist high. The good news is that the weather is clean again today and tomorrow it actually warms up a few degrees. Should be good beach weather. Maybe paddle your groms out into the line-up for some lessons. Saturday looks to be pretty small and Sunday starts off small too but we have some new small NW filling in later in the day. Maybe before sundown there will be a couple chest high sets. All in all good weather this weekend but no real surf. Water temps are still high 50’s and tides the next few days are 3’ at sunrise, 1’ mid-day, and back to 3’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the surf and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
After a small weekend, we have a little bump on Monday from the NW for chest high+ waves and things start to build towards Tuesday night from the NW again but conditions worsen. We’ve got a few weather systems lined-up that will give us surf but junky weather accompanies it. By Wednesday we should have chest high+ sets in north SD/OC, head high+ sets in south SD, and waist high+ waves in south OC but south winds and showers are in the mix. Waves actually increase Thursday and even more Friday morning for well overhead surf in SD and slightly smaller in the OC. Conditions may clean up slightly- but showers are on our heels again towards next weekend. And maybe more surf for next weekend too. There is also some small waist high+ SW headed our way for next week but it will be taken over by the NW swells and storms. Looks like lots of waves for the second half of next week but wind/showers take over. Hey- at least it keeps the crowds to a minimum.
WEATHER:
Kiss the good weather goodbye. We’ve got great weather on tap for the weekend but fog/low clouds return Monday and thicken Tuesday in approach of the rain on Wednesday. Models show a few fronts lined up in the Pacific and they can’t agree on the strength but we should at least get a couple shots of rain- looks like Wednesday and maybe again Friday. Basically we’ll be getting normal weather for February- cool, rainy, windy weather. I’m assuming high pressure will take control next weekend and maybe the week of the 21st we’ll be back to normal
BEST BET:
Tough call here: It’s small and beautiful today, slightly bigger Monday with the return of low clouds/fog or bigger surf next Friday and the chance of junky weather. What are you into?
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
If you went through the elementary school system in California, then you’re familiar the almost weekly drills of hiding under your desk for the ‘Big One’ drill. No, not an attack by Godzilla (that would be cool though), but rather an 8.0 earthquake in California that scientists claim was to happen back in the 70’s, then 80’s, then maybe the 90’s, and now I think they’ve given up. Regardless, scientists have a new scare for us: The Megastorm. The L.A. Times this week reported that such a storm, occurring every 100 to 200 years, would inundate the fertile Central Valley farmlands, trigger widespread landslides and cause flood damage to 1 in 4 homes. Remember that beast of a week last December where the local mountains got 2’ of rain and 40mph winds? ‘Megastorm’ would eat that for breakfast. There would be an atmospheric river of moisture from the tropical Pacific hitting California with up to 10 feet of rain and hurricane-force winds over several weeks. Seriously. My house wouldn’t make it. And normal gale force 35 mph winds in our outer waters over a few days create overhead storm surf for us. Just think what hurricane force winds over several weeks would do. The ocean road between Caridff and Seaside- gone. The Newport Peninsula- washed away. Scientists, engineers and emergency planners used flood mapping, climate change projections and geologic flood history to simulate a hypothetical storm so intense that it occurs only every 100 to 200 years. The study isn't meant to be a forecast that such a fierce storm is imminent, but rather a push by scientists to publicize the risk of a catastrophe that they say is unfamiliar to most Californians. In the scenario — powerful back-to-back storms — floods could require about 1 1/2 million people to evacuate and cause more than $300 billion in property damage. The economic loss would be four times that of a very large earthquake. The simulation was based on the most severe storm event on record in California, a 45-day series of storms that started in December 1861 and, according to the Geological Survey, caused such extensive flooding that the Sacramento Valley was turned into "an inland sea, forcing the state Capitol to be moved temporarily from Sacramento to San Francisco, and requiring Gov. Leland Stanford to take a rowboat to his inauguration." (So let’s see- if these storms happen around every 150 years and the last one was 1861, then we’re due this year! Stoke!) The Geologists studying prehistoric flood deposits found evidence of even larger storms that occurred about every 300 years. Scientists project storms of that magnitude to become more frequent and powerful as a result of global warming. This I believe. Notice what an odd summer and winter we’ve had so far. It’s either 1 or the other- heat wave or stormy in the winter and this past summer was just darn cold! The exact effects of a colossal storm would depend on weather patterns that cannot be predicted until about a week before they strike. But the study identified some of the most vulnerable areas. Los Angeles County, Orange County, San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area would be especially susceptible to the floodwaters of overflowing rivers. A 300-mile-long expanse of the Central Valley would be underwater, with substantial losses of crops, livestock and urban structures. The rains would overwhelm much of the state's flood protection system, especially in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta area, where levees aren't designed to withstand the flow predicted in such a storm. Landslides would wash out key portions of roads, highways and railroads. Flooding would disrupt the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Power, water and sewer lines could sustain damage that would take months to repair. "It's an extreme but plausible storm" that would become more catastrophic the longer it lasted, said Mark Jackson, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service's Oxnard office. "Our landscape can really handle quite a bit of rain. But when you get two storms back to back, you reach saturation, and the flood control systems are pushed over capacity." Long story short, go out and build your ark this weekend.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
In case you were buried in paperwork this week and didn’t have time to see my North County Surf blog on your lunch break, here’s what you missed: The future of wave machines, snowboards for $199, Surf Check pics from around town, the Employee of the Month, and more. What else are you going to do with your free time?! Check it out!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Ever surfed Lanzarote? Ever heard of Lanzarote? Me neither. It’s interesting what you come across on the internet. Talking cats. Shady people. North County Surf blogs. And the Lanzarote Surf Camp. It’s part of the Canary Islands chain off Spain and amazingly has a population of 140,000 on such a small island. Now that the floodgates have been opened around the surf at Tavarua, maybe Lanzarote is the next great surf destination? Never know ‘til you go…
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Bloggin’ Since ‘11
The Last Guitar Hero
The Little Known Hobgood Triplet
