SURF:
Last couple of weeks have been that transition from winter to fall. Usually in
winter we get a storm that rolls through then high pressure sets up for nice 75
degree weather at the beaches and long period overhead NW swells greet our
shores. In the spring we get fast moving storms that blow everything out and
junky windswell. This weekend we get the junky windswell scenario unfortunately.
Today is a dismal knee to waist high out of the NW and SW and the wind is
already blowing 10-15mph from the SW. We had a little increase out of the NW
this past Wednesday/Thursday and I was hoping it would increase more today but
no luck. Looks like the bulk of the swell will increase tomorrow but the storm
will be on top of us and any head high surf we do get will be blown to bits.
There should be some shoulder high waves out of the NW in north SD/OC tomorrow
morning, head high in south SD, and chest high in south OC. That increases about
a foot in all areas on Sunday morning then start to back off in the afternoon.
Hopefully the storm will have cleared out by then for sunny skies but NW wind
will probably be blowing behind the cold front- so clean conditions won't return
until Monday morning. All in all it looks like there will be surf this weekend
but stormy. For you hardy souls, tides the next few days are around 4' at
sunrise, down to 0' at lunch, and back up to 4' at sunset. Water is still cold
and in the high 50's. Keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
Monday looks to be cleaner as high pressure sets up but dying chest high NW will
be at our doorstep. Good news is that there is a small SW headed our way towards
Tuesday afternoon and a small NW for Wednesday. Combo spots at the beach breaks
may have some shoulder high peaks and clean conditions mid-week. Nothing big but
playful. And no rain and gusty winds thank goodness.
WEATHER:
If you liked last weekend's storm, then tonight and tomorrow is going to be
right up your alley. Looks like another cold, wet, and windy storm is bearing
down on us this evening. Rain totals should be around an inch at the coast and
winds will blow 15-20mph with gusts to 30 from the S tonight then switch W
tomorrow. Even look for thunderstorms above. The real story with this storm
though are the cold temps. So cold in fact that local foothills above 1500'
could see a dusting of snow. And temps at our beaches tomorrow may only be high
40's with lows in the high 30's. Ever wondered what's it's like to surf in
Iceland? Here's your chance. Run to Encinitas Surfboards today and load up on
gloves, booties, and a hood. After the storm exits Saturday night, Sunday looks
to be cool, clear, and breezy. Next week looks sunny and mild with temps in the
low to mid-60's.
BEST BET:
Depends what you're into. If you like peaky, uncrowded, windy, rainy, head high
surf, then tomorrow afternoon is the call. If you like peaky, crowded, light
wind, sunny, head high surf, then next Wednesday is for you. Personally I like
storm surf. I'm weird like that. Nothing like being in victory at sea conditions
to clear your head.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
For any surfer that has been fortunate to travel to tropical reefs, they know
the health of the reef is important for water quality, the shape of the wave,
and fish ecosystem below. What would the surfing world be without Teahupoo,
Pipeline, P-Pass, or Lance’s Right? The prestigious National Press Club in
Washington, DC this past week held a press launch for the Worlds Resources
Institute to discuss ‘Reefs at Risk: Global Threats Require Global Action’. The
opening keynote address was byJane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. Unfortunately her news wasn’t
good. In a condensed version of her speech (the full report can be found here), Dr.
Lubchenco states: “This is a critical time for ocean ecosystems in general, but
especially for coral reefs. Mounting pressures on land, along the coast and in
the water converge in a perfect storm of threats to reefs. Since the last
‘Reefs at Risk’ report a decade ago, threats have gone from worrisome to dire.
Reef ecosystems are changing rapidly and radically, with profound consequences
for humanity. But what’s really at stake?
Preserving coral reefs is about protecting coastal communities:
• Coastlines protected by reefs are more stable, more resistant to erosion, than
those without. Up to 90% of the energy from wind-generated waves is absorbed by
reef ecosystems.
Preserving coral reefs is about preserving cultures:
• As an example, the most linguistically diverse place on earth, Papua New
Guinea, is home to approximately 820 different languages and to many people who
are dependent on coral reefs.
Preserving coral reefs is about food security:
• We need to expand the way we think about food security far beyond just grains
and livestock on land to include fisheries, given that vast numbers of people in
developing countries rely on their coastal waters for essential protein.
• 500 million people worldwide depend daily upon coral reefs for their food and
livelihoods. That’s 200 million more people than live in the U.S. alone.
Preserving coral reefs is about ensuring thriving economies:
• It is difficult to put a precise dollar value on many of the benefits provided
by coral reef ecosystems, but by any estimate they are globally and locally
valuable. Tourism, reef fisheries and shoreline protection are particularly
noteworthy.
But most of all, preserving coral reefs is about our collective commitment to
one another, to the rest of life on the planet and to our future. A deadly
combination of local and global threats are putting these important ecosystems
and their services at risk. The potential impacts from climate change were
demonstrated graphically by the extensive coral bleaching in the Caribbean basin
in 2005 and in Southeast Asia and the Coral Triangle region in 2010. In
addition, ocean acidification – the change in ocean chemistry due to increased
CO2 in the atmosphere – had barely made it into the scientific literature 10
years ago, but is now understood to inflict potentially irreversible damage to
our ocean ecosystems. Extreme bleaching events kill corals outright, while less
extreme events can weaken corals, affecting their reproductive potential,
reducing growth and calcification, and leaving them vulnerable to disease.
Coral bleaching has negative impacts not only on coral reef ecosystems, but also
on the human communities that depend on coral reefs for food and income. If the
current trends persist, the projections in this report tell us that 20 years
from now, roughly half of reefs globally will experience thermal stress
sufficient to induce severe bleaching in most years. Within the next 50 years,
this percentage is expected to grow to more than 95%. In addition to thermal
stress, corals face the added threat of ocean acidification. Ocean
acidification is a global-scale change in the basic chemistry of oceans that is
currently underway as a direct result of the increased carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and ocean. As more CO2 is absorbed by the ocean, sea water becomes
more acidic. The change in chemistry means it is more difficult for corals to
build their skeletons. Reduced calcification rates limit a reef’s ability to
grow, stay healthy and withstand stress. By 2030, fewer than 1/2 the world’s
reefs are projected to be in areas where the level of calcium carbonate is ideal
for coral growth, suggesting that coral growth rates could be dramatically
reduced due to ocean acidification. By 2050, only about 15% of reefs will be in
areas where calcium carbonate levels are adequate for coral growth. Reef
ecosystems are globally important; their continued existence is a moral
imperative for the global community; healthy reefs are also the life-line for
local communities. Beacons of hope emerge from multiple places around the
world. One such beacon comes from Indonesia. In remote villages of the Bird’s
Head Seascape – an expanse of north-eastern Indonesia considered the epicenter
of biodiversity within the Coral Triangle – village leaders and resource
managers have formed a soccer league specifically as a means to foster
cooperation and exchange knowledge about their approaches to coral reef
conservation. They travel by every means possible – mules, small water craft,
mopeds and rickshaws – to soccer games, ultimately building a larger, stronger,
more resilient community of practitioners to protect these valuable resources
and the communities dependent upon them. Another creative effort is underway in
the Caribbean. Through an effort of The Nature Conservancy, fishers from Pedro
Bank, Jamaica -- the only remaining place in Jamaica where you can still make a
living by fishing – were brought together with fishers from Belize. This
“Fishers Exchange” exposed the shock and dismay of the Belizeans as they witness
the scope of the devastation of Pedro Bank in Jamaica; and the amazement of the
Jamaicans as they snorkel among teeming fish in Belize’s marine protected areas.
Off the waters of Belize, the Pedro Bank fishers saw the value of marine
protected areas and well-managed fisheries. With work and commitment, they still
have an opportunity to preserve and recover their natural heritage and protect
the reefs and the fisheries that are the foundation of their way of life. It
will take a herculean effort to reverse the current trajectory and leave healthy
ocean ecosystems to our children and our grandchildren. I am encouraged by
numerous signs:
• the increasing number of local community efforts that are underway, bringing
ingenuity and passion;
• the successes of various restoration efforts, giving hope for reversing
trends;
• increased scientific engagement informing choices;
• critical philanthropic efforts enabling proof of concept, development of
powerful networks, and translation of scientific knowledge into practice; and
• especially the engagement of young people who have a knack for tackling
seemingly impossible tasks and bringing fresh energy and thinking.
We have the chance to reverse the decline of coral reefs and bring them back to
health. This report should serve as the wake-up call: now is the time to act.
Healthy oceans should be everyone’s business. Greater awareness and engagement
are needed to protect and restore the global treasures that are coral reefs.
How the world rises to this challenge is a reflection of our commitment to one
another and to the natural world that gives us sustenance, wisdom and a
reflection of our souls."
BEST OF THE BLOG:
The Association of Surfing Professionals world tour is officially back in full
swing today on the Gold Coast of Oz. Check out the details at North County Surf.Blogspot!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
surfing in Iceland would warm your soul. From the website 'World Hum: Best
Travel Stories On The Internet', I give you snow on the beach, 6/5/4 wetsuits,
and icicles hanging from your face. Awesome.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Always First In Line
Mascot
Surfed Kaena Point With Ace Cool
