Hurry Up Hurricanes!

Today is the official start of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season (eastern north pacific being east of 140 degrees west longitude) and it runs until November 30^th, 2014. Before we look ahead, let’s take a look back at the season that never was:  Summer 2013…

For the 2013 season overall, 18 named storms formed in the basin with 8 of those becoming hurricanes. However, only one of the hurricanes reached major hurricane status.  Based the 1981-2010 climatology, the seasonal activity averages for the basin are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 or 4 major hurricanes. For 2013:

-the number of named storms was a little above normal

-the number of hurricanes was near normal
-and the number of major hurricanes was WELL below normal

In terms of accumulated cyclone energy, which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, tropical cyclone activity in the basin for 2013 was about 60 percent of the 1981-2010 average. That sucks. Add to that the well below normal activity of major hurricanes, and it was downright flat last summer.

 

If you’ll notice, we only had TWO storms last year with winds over 100mph. That’s significant for north county San Diego because we don’t face due south the way Orange County does so we don’t pick up a lot of hurricane swells- the bigger the better is our motto. And we only had one real storm- Major Hurricane Raymond- that had winds of 125mph.

So what does this have to do with our upcoming summer? Well, the National Hurricane Center will be putting out their official forecast for the upcoming summer in the next week or so. If the brewing El Nino holds up (in which the warmer than normal waters give fuel to the fire), we should see a banner summer for hurricane surf. If you read the North County Surf Blog onMay 2nd, you’ll remember my assessment:

“As a rule of thumb, the peak activity typically occurs during July through September. During the period 1981-2010, the eastern Pacific seasonal averages were 15.4 named storms (maximum 1-minute surface winds between 39-73 mph), with 8.4 of those becoming hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds of at least 74 mph) and 3.9 becoming major hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). If we’re going to be above average this year, we can compare the last solid El Nino we had in 1997; there were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and an unbelievable 7 major hurricanes.”

That’s what I’m hoping for this summer: 7 major hurricanes. If we have at least 6 from July through September, that’s a major hurricane swell every other week. Sign me up.