THE Surf Report

It's here...

SURF:

Had some fun surf this past week- once the SW winds died down on Wednesday. Tonight we have leftover SW/NW swell for waist high waves and not much on tap tomorrow.

Fear not though- more chest high+ SW should be filling in late in the day and peaking on Saturday- with the OC seeing head high+ waves.

As that holds on Sunday, we get a shot of waist high NW too. All in all it should be a good weekend. And the weather will clean up too (more on that below).

Water temps are around 66 and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, down to 0' at lunch, and up to 5' again at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

As the SW swell winds down this weekend, we get a reinforcement on Tuesday for more chest high waves here and shoulder high in the OC.

Behind that is some good NW windswell on Wednesday for shoulder high sets here and head high sets in SD.

And behind that is more SW swell headed our way for June 2nd. This one will be spotty as the south Pacific islands may block a little bit of it.

And if you can believe the charts, more SW could be headed our way around June 5th. Models show this one being solid but it's still a long way off from forming yet.

On a side note, Tropical Depression One has formed off mainland Mex. Before you get excited, it's only got winds of 30mph but it is forecasted to strengthen slightly. No hurricane in sight yet- but it's on the right path. Make sure to keep up to date on Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Now that the Indian Summer has passed and Old Man Winter is back (Following me? Me neither- been a weird spring), we should have nice weather returning for the weekend. Just some clearing clouds tomorrow then we're back to the morning/night fog for the weekend and temps in the mid-70's. By the middle of next week, models show a weak cold front moving through central CA and more clouds for us down here and cooler temps in the mid-60's.

BEST BET:
Probably this weekend- the return of nice seasonal weather, peaking SW swell on Saturday, and a touch of NW windswell filling in on Sunday. And Monday is Memorial Day! Life is good.
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:

IT’S HERE! IT’S HERE! IT’S HERE! NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced their Eastern Pacific Hurricane outlook for 2014! It’s basically Christmas for us weather nerds. And since I have surf fever too, I’m basically going to explode. I’ve been waiting 6 long months for this- ever since NOAA started to get that sick feeling in their stomach that we had an impending El Nino coming- which basically supersizes our hurricane season. So without further ado, here's their forecast…

“NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced  today that a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season is likely for the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below normal season. (So basically we have a 90% chance of getting good hurricane surf finally).
Seasonal hurricane forecasters are calling for a 70 percent chance of 14 to 20 named storms, which includes 7 to 11 hurricanes, of which 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). (Holy crap- could you imagine 6 major hurricanes in 1 summer?! That’s basically 2 a month from mid-June to mid-September. Jiminy Crickets). 

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.

“The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service. “The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995 (no s--t Sherlock- just ask any surfer worth his weight in salt what the past 20 summers have been like around here), but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.”

Climate signals point to a potentially active hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific this year, making preparedness more important than ever. The public is encouraged to take time now to learn their personal risk, build an emergency kit and develop a contingency plan in to ensure their resiliency in the face of wind, rain, flooding and storm surge that a hurricane may bring.

The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity. It does not predict whether, where, or when any of these storms may hit land. Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii. However, some occasionally head toward the northeast and may bring rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer or fall. Also, on average, two to three storms per season affect western Mexico or Central America.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

You know what's great about North County? Yes, all the Mexican food- but what's REALLY great about North County is all the surf shops. Been to the legendary Bing yet? The boards have been around for like 100 years but they just opened their first shop in SD a few months ago in Leucadia. If you can't stop by this weekend, get the scoop on the North County Surf Blog. As well as a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Summer is almost upon us and if I close my eyes, I can almost smell the Bullfrog Sunscreen, Mad Wax, and cheap pizza at the concession stand. When I open my eyes though, this is what I hope to see: The Wedge in all it's hurricane fueled glory. Man I love summer!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Victor
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