Friday, May 9, 2014

THE Surf Report


Indian Summer has arrived 6 months early.

SURF:

Had some little SW groundswell and NW windswell the past week but nothing major. Today is pretty small with just tiny NW windswell lapping our shores.
Good news is that we have a straight shot of S swell arriving tomorrow- bad news is that it will past most of our region and head to the OC. We may get some waist high+ surf from it while the OC will get shoulder high sets.
On it's heels is some healthy NW windswell on Sunday- but the winds that are creating it will also make a mess here late Saturday into Sunday morning. Look for chest high+ waves here on Sunday with shoulder high sets in the OC. All in all some little waves this weekend and some wind.
Water temps are holding steady at a pleasant 63 degrees (we'll see how that does after the NW winds on Saturday night) and the tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, down to 1' at lunch, and up to 5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:
After the NW winds depart this weekend, models show a slew of S and SW swells headed our way. Nothing big, but shoulder high sets in far north county and head high+ waves in the OC.
First up is a fun S swell on Wednesday for chest high+ waves here and bigger in the south facing OC of course.
After that we have another SW swell aiming to arrive next Sunday the 18th.
And charts show yet another SW swell brewing for the 22nd of May. The models don't have any NW ground or windswell for the near future so the S/SW swells will be pretty lined up- plan accordingly!

WEATHER:

It feels more like fall around here than spring. Case in point- where's all that 'May Gray/June Gloom' we're famous for? We've got a weak cold front sliding behind us tomorrow to set up gusty NW winds late Saturday and a little more late night/early morning low clouds and fog. That clears out by Sunday then the warm up begins: Monday to Friday should have temps in the 80's with some mid 90's possible again towards Wednesday. The offshore winds aren't forecasted to be as strong (so we should have less of a fire danger) but the heat will be there. Along with the south swells lined up next week, could be a good week of surf.

BEST BET:
Take your pick late next week- amazing weather (again) and a string of southern hemi swells. Time to use some vacation days.
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:

This might be the worst idea I’ve heard in a long time (next to the Amazon drone delivery idea)- and it comes from the ‘smart’ people of MIT. Science Daily reported recently:

“When an earthquake and tsunami struck the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant complex in 2011, neither the quake nor the inundation caused the ensuing contamination. Rather, it was the aftereffects -- specifically, the lack of cooling for the reactor cores, due to a shutdown of all power at the station -- that caused most of the harm.
A new design for nuclear plants built on floating platforms, modeled after those used for offshore oil drilling, could help avoid such consequences in the future. Such floating plants would be designed to be automatically cooled by the surrounding seawater in a worst-case scenario, which would indefinitely prevent any melting of fuel rods, or escape of radioactive material.

The concept is being presented this week at the Small Modular Reactors Symposium, hosted by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, by MIT professors Jacopo Buongiorno, Michael Golay, and Neil Todreas, along with others from MIT, the University of Wisconsin, and Chicago Bridge and Iron, a major nuclear plant and offshore platform construction company.

Such plants, Buongiorno explains, could be built in a shipyard, then towed to their destinations five to seven miles offshore, where they would be moored to the seafloor and connected to land by an underwater electric transmission line. The concept takes advantage of two mature technologies: light-water nuclear reactors and offshore oil and gas drilling platforms. Using established designs minimizes technological risks, says Buongiorno, an associate professor of nuclear science and engineering (NSE) at MIT.

Although the concept of a floating nuclear plant is not unique -- Russia is in the process of building one now, on a barge moored at the shore -- none have been located far enough offshore to be able to ride out a tsunami, Buongiorno says. For this new design, he says, "the biggest selling point is the enhanced safety."

A floating platform several miles offshore, moored in about 300 feet of water, would be unaffected by the motions of a tsunami; earthquakes would have no direct effect at all. Meanwhile, the biggest issue that faces most nuclear plants under emergency conditions -- overheating and potential meltdown, as happened at Fukushima, Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island -- would be virtually impossible at sea, Buongiorno says: "It's very close to the ocean, which is essentially an infinite heat sink, so it's possible to do cooling passively, with no intervention. The reactor containment itself is essentially underwater."

Buongiorno lists several other advantages. For one thing, it is increasingly difficult and expensive to find suitable sites for new nuclear plants: They usually need to be next to an ocean, lake, or river to provide cooling water, but shorefront properties are highly desirable. By contrast, sites offshore, but out of sight of land, could be located adjacent to the population centers they would serve. "The ocean is inexpensive real estate," Buongiorno says.

In addition, at the end of a plant's lifetime, "decommissioning" could be accomplished by simply towing it away to a central facility, as is done now for the Navy's carrier and submarine reactors. That would rapidly restore the site to pristine conditions.

This design could also help to address practical construction issues that have tended to make new nuclear plants uneconomical: Shipyard construction allows for better standardization, and the all-steel design eliminates the use of concrete, which Buongiorno says is often responsible for construction delays and cost overruns.

There are no particular limits to the size of such plants, he says: They could be anywhere from small, 50-megawatt plants to 1,000-megawatt plants matching today's largest facilities. "It's a flexible concept," Buongiorno says.

Most operations would be similar to those of onshore plants, and the plant would be designed to meet all regulatory security requirements for terrestrial plants. "Project work has confirmed the feasibility of achieving this goal, including satisfaction of the extra concern of protection against underwater attack," says Todreas, the KEPCO Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering and Mechanical Engineering.

Buongiorno sees a market for such plants in Asia, which has a combination of high tsunami risks and a rapidly growing need for new power sources. "It would make a lot of sense for Japan," he says, as well as places such as Indonesia, Chile, and Africa”

Now I’m not so worried about the tsunami danger, but what if there is a disaster, such as a systems malfunction? All that nuclear radiation and waste is getting dumped into the sea- and only in 300’ water- which is a couple miles offshore- all the waves, wind, and currents are going to spread that over a much larger area than a normal nuclear power plant disaster on land. Why can’t the crew at MIT work on more pressing matters like creating a real wave pool that looks like G-land?
 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Looks good from here- until you realize that wave is about a mile away, breaking in front of the rocks, and it's 20'. Oh- and the men in the gray suits patrol the line up. Welcome to Shipsterns!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Like No Other
Free Agent
Went Left The Day Da Bull Went Right At Makaha