Next week is the opposite of this week.
SURF:
The past week wasn't too shabby- heaps of overhead SW/NW early in the week then amazing weather coinciding with fun SW swell with a touch of NW. Today we're left with great weather again and a small SW with waist high+ waves here and chest high waves towards the OC.
FORECAST:
After a slow weekend, we get some NW windswell/groundswell arriving on Tuesday from an approaching trough of low pressure. Look for head high waves in north county into Wednesday and overhead sets in SD. The trough though will make it breezy around here and the good NW will be blown.
WEATHER:
That Santa Ana wind event was waaaaaay stronger than I expected. I thought we'd hit the mid-80's a few days ago- not the mid-90's. It's over thankfully and the fire danger has subsided, but we're still left with temps in the mid-80's today and probably high 70's tomorrow. We have a trough of low pressure up north that's starting to break down our good weather and by late Saturday night, we should have a return of fog and low clouds. On Monday we'll have more clouds/fog and temps in the high 60's. Models show the trough trying to come ashore Tuesday afternoon with a chance of sprinkles, breezy conditions, and temps only in the low 60's by Wednesday- a complete opposite of this past week. High pressure should set up again late next week for more sun and temps in the low 70's at the beaches.
BEST BET:
Unfortunately it's probably Wednesday as we'll have solid NW but windy conditions too. Until then, it will be pretty small around here.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The media has been talking a lot about the supposed upcoming El Nino this winter (myself included) but before we get too far ahead of ourselves, what does the short term hold in store for us? Let’s have a quick look at NOAA’s definition of an El Nino first:
The El Niño / La Niña climate pattern that alternately warms and cools the eastern tropical Pacific is the 800-pound gorilla of Earth’s climate system. On a global scale, no other single phenomenon has a greater influence on whether a year will be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average. Naturally, then, the ears of seasonal forecasters and natural resource managers around the world perked up back in early March when NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an “El Niño Watch.” The “watch” means that oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. One of the most significant of those favorable signs: a deep pool of warm water sliding eastward along the equator since late January 2014.
The maps show a cross-sectional view of five-day-average
temperature in the top 300 meters* of the Pacific Ocean in mid-February,
mid-March, and mid-April 2014 compared to the long-term average (1981-2010). Warmer
than average waters are red; cooler than average waters are blue. Each map
represents a 5-day average centered on the date shown. As you can see in the image above, there was some warm water fairly deep in the central Pacific in February but it wasn't affecting us. Yet...
The pool of warm water was lurking in the western Pacific in mid-February, but it shifted progressively eastward in the subsequent two months. By mid-April, the unusually warm water was close to breaching the surface in the eastern Pacific off South America (as shown above). NOAA declares El Niño underway when the monthly average temperature in the eastern Pacific is 0.5° Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) or more above average.
Such warm surface waters are unusual in the eastern Pacific because the prevailing wind direction across the tropics is east to west: from South America to Indonesia. The easterly winds pile up sun-warmed surface waters in the western Pacific like gusty winds build snow into drifts. Average sea level is literally higher in the western Pacific than the eastern Pacific.
As the warm surface water is pushed westward by the prevailing winds, cool water from deeper in the ocean rises to the surface near South America. This temperature gradient—warm waters around Indonesia and cooler waters off South America—lasts only as long as the easterly winds are blowing.
If those winds go slack or reverse direction in the western Pacific, the warm pool of water around Indonesia is released and begins a slow slosh back toward South America. The slosh is called a Kelvin wave. If the Kelvin wave has a strong impact on the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific, then it can help change the atmospheric circulation and trigger a cascade of climatic side effects that reverberate across the globe.
So what does that mean for us this summer? Well for one, we should have slightly warmer water temps. Like less springsuits and more trunks. We should also have less fog around here as the water temps will be more closely matched to the land temperatures. And more tropical clouds streaming overhead as the sub-tropics off Baja become more active due to the warmer water. And of course- a more active sub-tropics off Baja means more hurricanes.
Amazingly, we are just 2 weeks away from the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season which runs from May 15th through November 30th. NOAA’s official seasonal forecast comes out around the same time but I’m guessing they’ll say we’ll have a real hurricane season for once. As a rule of thumb, the peak activity typically occurs during July through September. During the period 1981-2010, the eastern Pacific seasonal averages were 15.4 named storms (maximum 1-minute surface winds between 39-73 mph), with 8.4 of those becoming hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds of at least 74 mph) and 3.9 becoming major hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). If we’re going to be above average this year, we can compare the last solid El Nino we had in 1997; there were 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and an unbelievable 7 major hurricanes. Why is that good for us surfers? 2 of those storms were the biggest hurricanes ever in the eastern Pacific: Guillermo with winds of 160mph which ran an astonishing 26 days- from July 30th to August 24th and at the time, was the strongest hurricane on record. Then it was passed by Linda 2 weeks later… Linda holds the record of the with winds of 185 and ran from Sept. 9th-17th. Hopefully we’re due to break some records this summer.
So on that note, what’s the line up of storms we should see named this summer? Here’s the official list:
2014
Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odile
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Whenever you see pics like this, your first thought is 'Man that is UGLY!'. But then, because of the real surfer that you are, your mind starts to drift to 'Well.... maybe I can get into it early, hopefully make the air drop, and get PITTED!'. All against your better judgment of course.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Head Honcho
Mayor of Margaritavile
Sort of a Combination of Phil Edwards and John John Florence
