It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
SURF:
We’re definitely starting to wean ourselves off of summer. We’ve got five days left in the season, there’s more activity starting to occur in the Aleutians, we’re never going to hit 70 degrees again in the water temp department, we’ve got drizzle outside today, and temps are about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Not exactly Christmastime conditions but it sure doesn’t feel or look like summer anymore.
Today we’ve got mainly small NW windswell with just leftover small SW groundswell. Most beaches are waist high with the odd chest high set in far north OC and far south SD. Add in the drizzle and 5mph S winds and it looks pretty uneventful out there today. Tomorrow the SW looks to be gone with just leftover waist high+ NW windswell. Sunday we may see signs of a new small SW but more than likely it will be towards Monday. All in all not an exciting weekend for surf. Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and the tides the next few days are 2’ at sunrise, 5’ at noon, and down to 1’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf
FORECAST:
After a small weekend of surf, things start to turn the corner slightly. We have a small but fun waist to chest high SW lining up for Monday and the beginning of the week as well as some NW windswell filling in. We’ll have little skate park conditions at the beachbreaks. The weather should also start to clean up too (more on that below). Charts are showing the north Pacific coming alive with a storm forming the middle of next week which may send our first fun NW groundswell of the season towards Thursday. Nothing big but probably head high in south SD.
As far as the tropics are concerned, we have a little area of disturbed weather off mainland Mexico but it doesn’t look that exciting- especially since the ocean is cooling off down there due to the change in seasons and La Nina influence. I don’t expect a lot of good things happening down there the rest of the year. So I guess all eyes are starting to focus on the Aleutians for the near future…
WEATHER:
Just another odd late season (or early season) cold front coming down the coast today, possibly influenced by La Nina (remember how cold last summer was- then all the rain we got in the winter)?! Our weak front today is bringing drizzle and temps about 10 degrees cooler than normal at the beaches. The ugly weather holds until tomorrow and starts to clear a little Sunday. By early next week we have high pressure building as the low exits the region and late summer warm temps are on tap. Models show that holding through the week. Things may change towards the end of next week as another low pressure stystem starts to move down the California coast and it may suck in some tropical moisture from the south. That would result in an increase in humidity and maybe a slight chance of thunderstorms again across the region.
BEST BET:
Tough call- maybe Monday with the new little SW and NW and nicer beach weather OR wait for the new NW to show in SD towards Thursday. Depends on where you live I guess.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Good article in the San Diego Union Tribune this week. There’s been a lot of talk about potential impacts of global warming around the world- especially rising ocean levels and how they will impact the coast from a financial standpoint. But not a lot of information about the SD region. Until now. Here’s what the newspaper found out:
“Torrey Pines beaches – among the most popular sections of county coastline – would suffer from fewer visitors and major infrastructure damage if the oceans rise as scientists predict, according to a study released Tuesday about the costs of sea-level rise along California's shores. Economists from San Francisco State University looked at five coastal areas to gauge the impact of higher water levels that are expected as the oceans warm, expand and climb higher onto land. At Torrey Pines, they projected an average of about $1 million a year in reduced tourism spending and a total of about $350 million in damage to roads and railways from erosion and other forces by 2100. The researchers also assessed sea-level rise at Ocean Beach in San Francisco County; Venice Beach and
Malibu beaches in Los Angeles County; and Carpinteria beaches in Santa Barbara County. They said the study should be used to plan for adapting to the effects of climate change. Funded by the California Department of Boating and Waterways, the researchers examined the costs of coastal storm damage and erosion, both of which are expected to increase as sea levels rise. In addition, they predicted the economic impact of sea level rise on tourism and natural habitats, as beaches that have been narrowed by erosion lose their appeal to visitors and their ability to sustain wildlife. "Sea level rise will send reverberations throughout local and state economies," said Philip King, a co-author and economics professor at San Francisco State. "We also found that the economic risks and responses to a changing coastline will vary greatly over time and from beach to beach." If sea levels rise 4.6 feet by 2100, the latest report shows that Torrey Pines city and state beaches could see:
• $5 million in damages caused by a 100-year coastal flood, including damage to cars and roads.
• $99 million in tourism spending and local and state tax revenue losses (accumulated between now and 2100) caused by a narrower, eroded beach attracting fewer paying visitors.
• $20.2 million in habitat and recreation losses caused by erosion significantly reducing the beach area.
• $348.7 million caused by land, road and railway lines being lost or damaged by erosion and subsidence, including damage to the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Luis Obispo rail corridor.
While some skeptics doubt the idea of significant sea-level increases, scientists and government officials across the country take the issue seriously. A recent paper by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography said complex interactions of air and water currents have held sea-level rise along the West Coast far below the global average in recent decades. It said signs point to a major shift in ocean dynamics that is expected to reduce the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters off the coast. If that happens, waters stuck near the surface are expected to heat, expand and creep higher onto land more like they have elsewhere. Local governments in San Diego County are among
the most aggressive in the country when it comes to preparing for higher seas, which are predicted to rise up to 18 inches by 2050 compared with the 20th century. Worst-case scenarios for 2100 show a much more dramatic increase of about 60 inches, forcing local officials to consider strategic retreats from the coast in places, more shoreline defenses in spots and altering infrastructure in
other areas.”
Basically low lying areas like Imperial Beach, Mission Beach, Scripps, Torrey Pines, Cardiff, Ponto, and Oceanside would see a lot of flooding. Surf those spots before they get hit with permanent high tide!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Staying with the ‘Christmastime’ theme for the week, I’ve posted snowboard, outerwear, and goggle deals on the North County Surf blog. It’s never too early to start thinking about snow, is it? Check out the deals in the blog below!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Considering it’s cold, small, and drizzly outside, I thought I’d give you some hope: Somewhere out there there’s a small island with warm temps waiting for you to get barreled. You just need a stash of cash and a good boat to find it. Good luck!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Revolutionary
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