Fall can’t come soon enough.
SURF:
Man has it been frumpy around here. What’s frumpy you ask? Cool air temperatures, overcast skies, wetsuit water temps, red tide, and small surf. Summer sure went out with a whimper. Thankfully fall is here and things are starting to turn for the better. Yesterday San Diego saw the first NW groundswell of the season- not big by any means- but South SD had some fun head high sets and it was good to see fall type waves around here. 
Today we have that peaking NW with a touch of fading SW. Most spots are waist high with chest high sets. South SD is picking up the NW with not much SW. North SD/South OC is picking up the combo. And North OC is mainly picking up SW. Saturday should be slightly smaller and Sunday pretty small. Looks like today is the day if you can sneak out of work and school. Water temps are a cool 64 degrees and the tides the next few days are about 4’ at sunrise, 2’ at 1pm, and down to 6’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
Over the years, surfers have called fall the best time of year for waves. We’ve got leftover SW swell, the north Pacific starts to come alive, and there’s the odd hurricane if you’re lucky. June Gloom is usually long gone by now and we’re left with Indian Summer conditions. Amazingly, we just had the last week of summer and conditions were frumpy. Now that fall started on Thursday, we’re turning the corner with better weather, the Aleutians are waking up, and we’ve got some random little storms down south. 
Looks like we should have some small NW groundswells intermittently next week- probably Tuesday and Thursday- which will give south SD some chest high waves. There is also more activity on the charts for later in the week which may give us some more small but fun NW towards the end of next weekend.
We also have Hurricane Hilary churning SE of Cabo. Currently winds are 135mph- pretty powerful- but it’s small. Looks like it will peak at 150mph. I’m hoping it hits our swell window by Monday but it will be considerably weaker by then. At this point in time, it may be around 100mph and dropping fast. If it can hold together for 12-24 hours in our window, we may get some small S swell on Wednesday (maybe chest high sets in the OC).
Way further out, models show some life still in the southern hemisphere and we may have a storm pull together early next week. If that’s the case, there’s an outside shot of some head high+ SW around Wednesday the 5th.
WEATHER:
Odd weather. I guess the scientists are right- all this global warming is screwing up our atmosphere. There’s no more mild weather- it’s either cloudy in the summer or baking hot. And we get great weather in the winter or tons of rain (like our supposed ‘dry’ La Nina last winter). Regardless, we’ve got cool weather on tap today with overcast conditions hugging the coast and tropical weather overhead (trust me- it’s there even though you can’t see it through these low clouds).
There’s even a shot at some sprinkles and dry lightening strikes over the ocean from the weak monsoonal conditions (see the little yellow blobs in the pic above). Things start to clear up though late Sunday and we should have good weather finally for most of the work week. Models though show a trough deepening off our coast for next weekend which would give us cloudy conditions again, cooler weather, and some breezes. Fall is kicking into gear.
BEST BET:
Nothing too exciting- maybe catch the tail end of that NW/SW today. Or hope Hilary delivers if you live in the OC and catch some small S swell on Wednesday.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
It’s been pretty gloomy the past few weeks at the beach. Summer is definitely over. Crisp weather, overcast conditions, cool water, small surf, and a dreaded red tide have been the norm. You could really notice the Red Tide at the ASP’s Hurly Pro contest this past week at Trestles- it almost looked like the creek at uppers was open like during a heavy winter rain with brown dirt run off. But it’s late summer so that wasn’t the cause of the water discoloration of course. It was the ‘Red Tide’ or Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB’s), which occur when colonies of algae—simple ocean plants that live in the sea—grow out of control while producing toxic or harmful effects on people, fish, shellfish, marine mammals and birds. The human illnesses caused by HABs, though rare, can be debilitating or even fatal. Most commonly here in southern California it’s sinus infection like symptoms which tend to irritate people. But just what causes these HAB’s? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association can shed some light on the subject in today’s ‘News of the Week’. In their research they unfortunately don’t have a clear cut answer. No one knows for sure and NOAA’s stepped up their monitoring of this occurrence to hopefully find a way to predict them, but here in southern California they seem to occur when we get strong NW winds for a few days which in turn causes upwelling in our waters. The upwelling brings nutrients to the surface and when the sun comes out- BAM! Algae grows out of control. Fortunately it seems that most of the red tides in Southern California are not toxic, while Florida has had major problems with large toxic red tides in the last few years. As the name suggests, the bloom of algae often turns the water red. One of the best known HABs in the nation occurs nearly every summer along the Florida Gulf Coast. This bloom, like many HABs, is caused by microscopic algae that produce toxins that kill fish and make shellfish dangerous to eat. The toxins may also make the surrounding air difficult to breathe. It gets to the point where your lungs would burn if there was a strong onshore breeze. HABs have been reported in almost every U.S. coastal state, and their occurrence may be on the rise. HABs are a national concern because they affect not only the health of people and marine ecosystems, but also the 'health' of local and regional economies. But not all algal blooms are harmful. Most blooms, in fact, are beneficial because the tiny plants are food for animals in the ocean. In fact, they are the major source of energy that fuels the ocean food web. A small percentage of algae, however, do produce powerful toxins that can kill fish, shellfish, mammals and birds, and may directly or indirectly cause illness in people. HABs also include blooms of non-toxic species that have harmful effects on marine ecosystems. For example, when masses of algae die and decompose, the decaying process can deplete oxygen in the water, causing the water to become so low in oxygen that animals either leave the area or die. Scientists at the National Ocean Service have been monitoring and studying this phenomenon for a number of years to determine how to detect and forecast the location of the blooms. The goal is to give communities advance warnings so they can adequately plan for and deal with the adverse environmental and health effects associated with these 'red-tide' events.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
It’s like a carnival at the North County Surf blog this week. I’ve got video of looney long lefts in Africa. I’ve got a hot spot at Solace and the Moonlight Lounge. I’ve got good beaches and bad beaches. And of course the mid-week surf forecast you can’t keep your eyes off of. Step right up to the blog below and see the freaks in action!PIC OF THE WEEK:
This was a slab before slabs were cool. When real men like Kong would surf waves thicker than they were high just for ‘fun’- not because photographers were out. Ah yes, the original below sea level dry reef beast. I give you: Shark Island.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
ContortionistThe Reason for the REM Breakup
Cronulla Boardriders Club President
