THE Surf Report 9/30/11

Hodgepodge!

SURF:
What don’t we have going on right now? Hurricane surf, Aleutian groundswells, tropical weather, a chance of a ‘winter’ cold front with rain and wind next week, red tide- oh and I forgot- giant squid washing up on the beaches! It’s the end of the world as we know it. Earlier in the week we had a fun NW groundswell show up and south SD had head high sets. Then Hurricane Hillary sent surf our way and the OC got some head high waves yesterday. Today we’ve got a small dying NW swell mixed in with dying hurricane surf from Hillary. SD and south OC have some chest high sets while there’s still the odd head high wave from Hillary in north OC. Considering it’s been cloudy, small surf, and red tide the past two weeks, the last few days have been a blessing. Looks like the NW should be gone tomorrow while the small leftover S from Hillary will have some chest high sets in the OC. By Sunday it looks pretty small around here. Water temps are a cool 64 degrees and the tides the next few days are about 1’ at sunrise, 6’ at noon, and down to -1’ at sunset. Make sure to keep an eye out on the tides as the conditions will change drastically during the day. And as always, follow the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the swells peter out this weekend, the Pacific doesn’t sleep for long as we’ve got a few swells lined up on the charts. The north Pacific has been acting like it’s December already and we’ve got some waves and weather (more on that below) headed our way. Looks like Monday afternoon we should get a bump from the NW for chest high waves in north SD and head high waves in south SD.

Also, a few days ago a good storm was brewing in the southern hemisphere and it’s sending a fun SW swell for the middle of the week. Look for some shoulder high waves in SD and overhead sets in the OC for Wednesday. And let’s circle back to the north Pacific (am I losing you here)? Charts show a solid ‘winter’ type storm building momentum early next week and sending us a solid overhead NW for Thursday. All in all it should be a fun week for surf- if the weather holds up…

WEATHER:

This is going to be one interesting stretch of 7 days coming up. We literally will have 1 of everything: foggy conditions, tropical weather, sunny skies, and a winter type cold front. Seriously- we’re going to get the 4 seasons in a 7 day stretch. I love this stuff. So first up- today we have high pressure inland keeping the fog and low clouds confined to the coast. Then tomorrow high pressure is setting up over the Four Corners (i.e. Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado) and the rotation of the winds is going to suck in what’s left of Hurricane Hillary. So look for tropical clouds overhead this weekend with a slight chance of showers and some rumbling in the skies. Then a weak cold front moves through on Monday and cleans out the tropical junk and we’re left low clouds and fog with cool temperatures through Wednesday. Next up on the radar is a unseasonably large cold front poised to move down the state late Wednesday and into our region Thursday. Models show this being a typical winter storm with rain and wind for Thursday. I don’t expect it to be a large storm nor lots of rain, I think the novelty is that we just got done with summer 9 days ago and all of a sudden we’re headed towards winter. What happened to fall?

BEST BET:
Wednesday should be the call. With a SW peaking AND the calm before the storm Thursday, it’s looking like a good bet. And I’m hoping that solid NW Thursday shows up a little early on Wednesday too…

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

View more videos at: http://nbcsandiego.com.

Another sign the Apocalypse is upon us: Besides the red tide and cloudy conditions that have plagued our coast for 2 weeks now, it’s also seemed to confuse the giant Humboldt squid. They’ve been washing ashore in large numbers lately from San Diego to Orange County. Scientists don’t know what’s causing it but there are a few theories:
1. The recent red tide. If you read last week’s News of the Week, it went into detail of the dreaded red tide we’ve been having. Made up of phytoplankton, tiny fish are gorging on the recent bloom and in turn the squid are eating the fish. With all the red tide we’ve had the last few weeks, the giant squid most likely have been feasting like it’s the buffet at Caesar’s.
2. With global warming, species are moving to new territories to live. The giant Humboldt squid (which are actually from Chile) could be moving up the coast to set up shop.
3. Fish seem more likely to get sick from the red tide than humans (besides the recent ear and sinus infections most surfers have been getting from it) and in some instances, it’s toxic to the fish. With the squid eating the fish full of the red tide phytoplankton, they may be getting sick too and beaching themselves.
4. Remember the small 4.0 earthquake off La Jolla in 2009? Wasn’t a big headliner but what really shook people up were the hundreds of squid that beached themselves minutes after the quake. Seems as though the trembler disoriented the critters. Maybe they know something we don’t?
Regardless, it’s a bummer these giant squid (up to 4 feet) have been washing up on shore lately. Hopefully the red tide will dissipate and we’ll all be back to normal soon. And one word of note- if the squid are sick- don’t touch them!

BEST OF THE BLOG:
With all the unique weather coming up, swells from all directions, red tide, and giant squid washing ashore, maybe it is Armageddon?! What’s next? A Wal Mart in Encinitas? Ha! Never! What? What’s that you say? City council just approved it? Why hath you forsaken me! Check out the story in the blog below. Or if you can’t bear to look at the carnage, relax and watch Matt Wilkinson go for every trick in the book. Or get up to date on a mid-week surf check. Anything’s better than Wal Mart. On that note- support your local surf shop!

PIC(S) OF THE WEEK:

Today’s word is “P-O-T-E-N-T-I-A-L”. Say it with me “potential”. Now I admit, today’s Pic of the Week isn’t the biggest barrel or longest point or most hideous slab. They’re actually hardly breaking. That’s why I’m giving you two Pics of the Week today- to make up for their shortcomings. One’s a coldwater right reef, the other’s a tropical superbank left. You see, I love these kinds of shots because it’s what I grew up on- not Pipeline, not J-Bay, not Kirra. But rather my local little reefbreaks as a grom that never seemed to get good EXCEPT when all the conditions came together once a year and they were the best spots on earth in my biased opinion. Like today’s pics- just think what solid 8’ surf would do to these places. All time I tell ya! So pull up Google Earth and your weather maps and start figuring out a way to find these spots and be there when they finally come to life…

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Tycoon
The X Factor
Godfather of Laybacks

North County Business News: It's the End of the World As We Know It

A few months ago I reported that Wal Mart may be coming to Encinitas (Hide the Women and Children and one of the first North County Business News sections). Well it's been reported this week that Patrick Murphy, the city's planning and building director, has confirmed Wal Mart has a building permit for the old Home Expo space. The location is where Pei Wei, Islands, REI, and ARCO all share a parking lot. The original problem was that for X amount of retail space, the city required X amount of parking spots. The Home Expo building is roughly 104,000 square feet and the city said there wasn't enough parking for a Wal Mart type store (not sure how the city figured the parking was enough for Home Expo but not for Wal Mart). Anyway, Wal Mart was adamant about moving into the space so they worked on their numbers and told the city council that they'd only occupy 96,000 square feet of the space- which means they'd wall off 8,000 square feet and leave it empty. Now that's dedication. All that's left before remodeling was a city council meeting last night to discuss the interior layout- which won't delay anything. Of course putting in a store almost 100,000 square feet in size will take some time and it is assumed it won't be open until late winter 2011/2012 or spring 2012. It will be interesting to see what the store looks like- most Wal Marts are around 120,000 square feet in size- and it's super centers are 185,000 square feet- the Encinitas location will be 96,000 square feet- 1/2 of a super center. Also, what will it mean to local competing businesses across the street like Best Buy and Target?

I also find it odd that the locations of the current north county Wal Marts form a semi circle around Encinitas. Seems as though a lot of towns in the area didn't want Wal Marts either. So where do we go from here? Let's take a look at the pros and cons of Wal Mart moving in to Encinitas:

Pros:
-We're in a recession so the low prices will help our wallets.
-Increased tax revenue for the city.
-Lots of people in the area are out of work so the new jobs are welcome.
-There's a lot of vacant retail space in Encinitas that needs to be filled.

Cons:
-Increased traffic.
-Tough on local businesses to compete with Wal Mart's low prices.
-Decrease in property values. Seriously- we couldn't fill the space with something more upscale like a movie theatre, Nordstrom Rack, or Cost Plus?
-The people who shop at Wal Mart! Don't believe me? Check out the site People of Wal Mart. There's something about these stores that just brings out the worst of people.

Stay tuned for more updates as the store progresses.

Clip of the Day: Wilko is Wonkers

Indo from Matt Wilkinson on Vimeo.

Love him or hate him, Matt Wilkinson (or Wilko as the Aussies call him because you can't be a surfer in Oz without a nickname) has got the tricks down. Born September 29th, 1988 (Happy B-day tomorrow Wilko!), Matt has got moves like Owen but an attitude like Occy- just stoked to be hanging out with the boys on tour. Currently rated 18th on tour he's had his ups and downs this year (a 5th place on the Gold Coast as well as a 5th at macking Chopes but a 25th in Rio and NY). Wilko seems to like what the tour has to offer- heaps of good waves and heaps of good times. Check out the Clip of the Day with Wilko going Wonkers in Indo. It will make you want to grab your board and blow your tail.

Surf Check 9/27/11

When it rains, it pours. Literally. All kinds of reasons for a meteorologist to pull his hair out. Let's start with the simple stuff though- today we have mainly waist to chest high NW windswell.

Nothing exciting but it is rideable. If you head to south county SD, you might get a better set but don't expect too much. Looks fun though as we have some little wedges in the shorebreak due to the peaky conditions, high tide this morning, and sunny clean conditions- something new for a change. The red tide though is still hanging around and I don't expect to see much improvement until the weekend- I think we need a little more surf and sun to mix it out.

Tides the next few days are about 6.5' at 10am, -1' at 4pm, and up slightly to 2' at sunset. Water temps are currently hovering around 65. Now that's the simple part of this forecast. Let's see, what part of the forecast should I start with for the next few days. Let's go with what's currently happening in the entire Pacific right now: We've got a good early season storm in the Aleutians brewing up a NW groundswell, we've got Hurricane Hillary in our window, and we've got a late season southern hemi marching our way.

First up, Hurricane Hillary. Oddly, we're transitioning to a La Nina type pattern (i.e. cooler water temps) which kill hurricanes but Hurricane Hillary doesn't listen to weather forecasts. As luck would have it, she's done a pretty good job of wind speeds (hitting a peak of 150mph) and heading in our direction (due north). As typical with our hurricanes this summer, as soon as Hillary hit our swell window, she started to die, but for the last 24 hours, she's had winds around 120mph. She also wasn't large in diameter but the wind speed and direction should make up for her shortcomings. Long story short, we should see some waist high waves in south SD tomorrow afternoon, chest high in north county SD, and head high+ in far north county OC.

Also on the radar is our Aleutian storm. Currently it isn't that big but it will send shoulder high surf to south county SD on Thursday. North County SD should see some chest high sets and the OC about waist high. Throw in Hillary, and we'll have head high peaks most everywhere. Beachbreaks could be crazy looking due to the extreme NW angle of the NW swell and the extreme S angle of the S swell. Hopefully the swells don't cancel themselves out!

And we must be doing something right because we've got a good late season southern hemisphere storm brewing. It should take about a week to get here so expect some head high sets in north county SD and slightly overhead sets in the OC towards next Wednesday the 5th of October. But wait! There's more! If you act now, you may get some weather from the Aleutian storm and Hurricane Hillary!

The models though are confused on the scenario- either the cold front from the Aleutian storm will be stronger than dissipating Hillary or Hillary's tropical clouds will be more prevalent than the cold front. So either this weekend we'll get cool dry clear conditions after the front rolls through OR a slight chance of thunderstorms and humidity. The models won't know until Friday unfortunately. We also have a weaker NW on the charts for the middle of next week and a better shot of some cool fall showers. If you like meteorology, the next 7 days is going to be your cup of tea.

THE Surf Report 9/23/11

Fall can’t come soon enough.

SURF:

Man has it been frumpy around here. What’s frumpy you ask? Cool air temperatures, overcast skies, wetsuit water temps, red tide, and small surf. Summer sure went out with a whimper. Thankfully fall is here and things are starting to turn for the better. Yesterday San Diego saw the first NW groundswell of the season- not big by any means- but South SD had some fun head high sets and it was good to see fall type waves around here.

Today we have that peaking NW with a touch of fading SW. Most spots are waist high with chest high sets. South SD is picking up the NW with not much SW. North SD/South OC is picking up the combo. And North OC is mainly picking up SW. Saturday should be slightly smaller and Sunday pretty small. Looks like today is the day if you can sneak out of work and school. Water temps are a cool 64 degrees and the tides the next few days are about 4’ at sunrise, 2’ at 1pm, and down to 6’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:

Over the years, surfers have called fall the best time of year for waves. We’ve got leftover SW swell, the north Pacific starts to come alive, and there’s the odd hurricane if you’re lucky. June Gloom is usually long gone by now and we’re left with Indian Summer conditions. Amazingly, we just had the last week of summer and conditions were frumpy. Now that fall started on Thursday, we’re turning the corner with better weather, the Aleutians are waking up, and we’ve got some random little storms down south.

Looks like we should have some small NW groundswells intermittently next week- probably Tuesday and Thursday- which will give south SD some chest high waves. There is also more activity on the charts for later in the week which may give us some more small but fun NW towards the end of next weekend.

We also have Hurricane Hilary churning SE of Cabo. Currently winds are 135mph- pretty powerful- but it’s small. Looks like it will peak at 150mph. I’m hoping it hits our swell window by Monday but it will be considerably weaker by then. At this point in time, it may be around 100mph and dropping fast. If it can hold together for 12-24 hours in our window, we may get some small S swell on Wednesday (maybe chest high sets in the OC).

Way further out, models show some life still in the southern hemisphere and we may have a storm pull together early next week. If that’s the case, there’s an outside shot of some head high+ SW around Wednesday the 5^th.

WEATHER:

Odd weather. I guess the scientists are right- all this global warming is screwing up our atmosphere. There’s no more mild weather- it’s either cloudy in the summer or baking hot. And we get great weather in the winter or tons of rain (like our supposed ‘dry’ La Nina last winter). Regardless, we’ve got cool weather on tap today with overcast conditions hugging the coast and tropical weather overhead (trust me- it’s there even though you can’t see it through these low clouds).

There’s even a shot at some sprinkles and dry lightening strikes over the ocean from the weak monsoonal conditions (see the little yellow blobs in the pic above). Things start to clear up though late Sunday and we should have good weather finally for most of the work week. Models though show a trough deepening off our coast for next weekend which would give us cloudy conditions again, cooler weather, and some breezes. Fall is kicking into gear.  

 
BEST BET:
Nothing too exciting- maybe catch the tail end of that NW/SW today. Or hope Hilary delivers if you live in the OC and catch some small S swell on Wednesday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

It’s been pretty gloomy the past few weeks at the beach. Summer is definitely over. Crisp weather, overcast conditions, cool water, small surf, and a dreaded red tide have been the norm. You could really notice the Red Tide at the ASP’s Hurly Pro contest this past week at Trestles- it almost looked like the creek at uppers was open like during a heavy winter rain with brown dirt run off. But it’s late summer so that wasn’t the cause of the water discoloration of course. It was the ‘Red Tide’ or Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB’s), which occur when colonies of algae—simple ocean plants that live in the sea—grow out of control while producing toxic or harmful effects on people, fish, shellfish, marine mammals and birds. The human illnesses caused by HABs, though rare, can be debilitating or even fatal. Most commonly here in southern California it’s sinus infection like symptoms which tend to irritate people. But just what causes these HAB’s? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association can shed some light on the subject in today’s ‘News of the Week’. In their research they unfortunately don’t have a clear cut answer. No one knows for sure and NOAA’s stepped up their monitoring of this occurrence to hopefully find a way to predict them, but here in southern California they seem to occur when we get strong NW winds for a few days which in turn causes upwelling in our waters. The upwelling brings nutrients to the surface and when the sun comes out- BAM! Algae grows out of control. Fortunately it seems that most of the red tides in Southern California are not toxic, while Florida has had major problems with large toxic red tides in the last few years. As the name suggests, the bloom of algae often turns the water red. One of the best known HABs in the nation occurs nearly every summer along the Florida Gulf Coast. This bloom, like many HABs, is caused by microscopic algae that produce toxins that kill fish and make shellfish dangerous to eat. The toxins may also make the surrounding air difficult to breathe. It gets to the point where your lungs would burn if there was a strong onshore breeze. HABs have been reported in almost every U.S. coastal state, and their occurrence may be on the rise. HABs are a national concern because they affect not only the health of people and marine ecosystems, but also the 'health' of local and regional economies. But not all algal blooms are harmful. Most blooms, in fact, are beneficial because the tiny plants are food for animals in the ocean. In fact, they are the major source of energy that fuels the ocean food web. A small percentage of algae, however, do produce powerful toxins that can kill fish, shellfish, mammals and birds, and may directly or indirectly cause illness in people. HABs also include blooms of non-toxic species that have harmful effects on marine ecosystems. For example, when masses of algae die and decompose, the decaying process can deplete oxygen in the water, causing the water to become so low in oxygen that animals either leave the area or die. Scientists at the National Ocean Service have been monitoring and studying this phenomenon for a number of years to determine how to detect and forecast the location of the blooms. The goal is to give communities advance warnings so they can adequately plan for and deal with the adverse environmental and health effects associated with these 'red-tide' events.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

It’s like a carnival at the North County Surf blog this week. I’ve got video of looney long lefts in Africa. I’ve got a hot spot at Solace and the Moonlight Lounge. I’ve got good beaches and bad beaches. And of course the mid-week surf forecast you can’t keep your eyes off of. Step right up to the blog below and see the freaks in action!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This was a slab before slabs were cool. When real men like Kong would surf waves thicker than they were high just for ‘fun’- not because photographers were out. Ah yes, the original below sea level dry reef beast. I give you: Shark Island.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Contortionist
The Reason for the REM Breakup
Cronulla Boardriders Club President

Best Beaches in San Diego and Orange County?

World renowned Frommer's Travel Guides just came out with their list of the best beaches in Orange County. Now granted, no one at Frommer's surfs or their list would have been significantly different (they list Blackie's in Newport as being one of the great beaches but not 54th Street- enough said).
They also list Main Beach in Laguna as one of the great beaches in the OC- which it is- but then the wheels fall off as they posted a shot from the San Clemente pier claiming it's Laguna. Whoops.

In general, some of the beaches they also have great waves (Salt Creek, Huntington Beach, The Wedge), while others are, well, are great beaches (Aliso, Thousand Steps, Crystal Cove).

To see the complete list, check out Frommer's 'The Best Beaches of Orange County'. On that note, I thought I should make my own list of great beaches of San Diego County that ALSO include great waves. What's the purpose of having a great beach if there's no waves to surf?! Plus your girl needs a place to layout while you get a 3 hour session in. So here's my list, in no particular order:

-Tijuana Sloughs: Creepy big wave reef at the border and lots of wildlife in and around the lagoon- as well as the water.

-Windansea: Picks up swells from the S, SW, W, and NW plus the shack on the beach is as cool as the million dollar homes surrounding it.
-Blacks: Massive cliffs, deepwater peaks, and surfing in the buff is all part of the appeal.
-15th St. Del Mar: Ok, so it needs a bit of swell and low tide before it gets fun. But as you wait for the conditions to come together, walk up the street to Rusty and grab a new stick. Or have a drink at Jake's on the beach. Or let your girl melt your credit card at Banana Republic.

-Cardiff Reef: Another fickle wave that needs the tide and swell to come together. So in the meantime, push your grom into ankle slappers at the rivermouth and strum your ukelele in the parking lot.

-Swamis: The headland, the temple, the empty beach. All so relaxing. Until you hit the line up with 100 frothing old guys on fishes. Worth it though to get just one wave. To yourself that is.
-Tamarack: Lots of little peaks on the scattered reefs. Just find a little spot and paddle out to get your groove on. Easy in, easy out. Isn't that what a session should be all about?
-Oceanside: There's so many good waves on miles upon miles of beaches here, it's no use picking just one spot along this coast. Lots of sandbars to make it a liquid skatepark.

-Trestles: Churches, Barbwires, Uppers, Lowers, Cottons, Middles, you name it. The phenomenal waves match the natural beauty of the habitat on shore. 

Of course this isn't a definitive list and I'm sure I've left your favorite spot off. But maybe we should make this a mini bucket list and it is your duty as a surfer to get a session at each one of these spots this winter...

Surf Check 9/20/11

Sure doesn't look or feel like the last day of summer. Actually, it feels like the first day of summer- small SW swell and June Gloom. We've only got small waist high SW swell in the line-up today maybe a chest high set in the OC.

And the low clouds are thick; lots of drizzle is making it feel like San Fran. If you can believe it, high pressure in our atmosphere is in control and the inland valleys will be in the mid-80's today. Unfortunately that same high pressure is pushing the clouds up against ocean and here at the coast we're stuck with cool cloudy wet conditions.

Looks like the small background SW swell will stick around the next couple of days along with the cloudy conditions. On a brighter note, we should have a new small fun NW swell showing on Thursday for chest high waves in south SD. Buoys off the Washington/British Columbia coast this morning are showing 22' readings. North county SD might be fun with the leftover small SW and small NW combo. There is also a weak cold front moving down the Pacific and it may stay offshore towards Friday which would suck in some tropical moisture and hopefully clear our skies by Saturday.

And as the north Pacific comes alive this week (the first day of fall is tomorrow you know), we may have a good head high NW for SD towards Monday of next week. Perfect timing.

On a side note, there is also an area of disturbed weather off of Mexico today that models show a 50% chance of becoming a hurricane the next few days. Don't hold your breath- but it would be nice if it did turn out to be a swell generator. If that's the case, we might see swell at the beginning of next week too. Crazy to think we could see a real Aleutian groundswell meeting up with a Mexican Hurricane.

Clip of the Day (Year): Europe in Africa

Africa from French Connexion on Vimeo.

The Clip of the Day just may be the Clip of the Decade. You saw this wave before- a couple years ago Cory Lopez and Ian Walsh trekked half way around the world to surf this jaw dropping left on the west coast of Africa. The problem with their footage though was that it was shot down the beach or just below the whitewater line so it was hard to tell how god the wave truly was. Not anymore. With the help of European surfers Marc Lacomare, Alain Riou, and Aritz Aranburu, they got footage that will make you want to quit your job, kiss the wife goodbye, and give the civilized world the finger. (OK- maybe you want to do that anyway). Regardless, I've never seen barrels this long in my life. It makes the Superbank seem like a joke. Considering it's twice the size, longer barrels, and no one out besides a massive seal population, that's not a hard claim. Enough of all the talk already, just watch the clip and thank me later for your impending enlightenment. Damn this is good stuff.

North County Business News: Finding Solace

This isn't exactly new news as Solace and the Moonlight Lounge have been open for a few weeks now, but I've been twice already so I thought it was about time I gave the establishment some props. I first wrote about the new restaurant back in January when they were digging out the massive whole for Pacific Station's underground parking lot. The anchor tenants for the summer opening were to be Whole Foods (which I'm for sure by now you've spent a couple grand there) and chef extraordinaire Matt Gordon's Solace/Moonlight Lounge combination. Matt's been all over the place the past 20+ years- executive chef duties in San Francisco/Flagstaff/Napa and then opening up Urban Solace in North Park. Based on his success in southern San Diego it was only natural to conquer the rest of the county by opening up Solace in Encinitas. I was bummed to see the old 25E/Redsand building/Grounded/101 Artists Colony grey steel warehouse get torn down for Pacific Station but the new tenants have done a great job breathing life into downtown Encinitas. Especially upscale tenants like Whole Foods and Solace.

What makes Solace unique is that it's not another fast food joint or Italian eatery but rather Matt brings a twist to American fare with unique food combinations and drinks to boot. My meal stated off with warm cheddar and chive biscuits (with this crazy good orange butter- odd I know, but it went down smooth) and finished off with a cold Mexican Victoria beer. The main course consisted of a quinoa veggie burger (I had to eat something healthy after downing biscuits and beer) and I also ate part of a grilled 4 cheese sandwich. And that was just the simple stuff off the menu. Matt brings his executive chef skills to BBQ Glazed Duroc Pork Belly, Smoked Sea Salt & Sugar Glazed Black Bass With Fennel Braised Root Vegetable Hash, and all kinds of other stuff I can't pronounce. The cool thing about Solace is that Encinitas doesn't have many hip establishments (it's mostly the beer and burger crowd or taco and Tecate joints) so it's a good place to take friends, eat some good food, and indulge in conversation. As you can imagine, it's been crowded, so reservations are a good bet.

But if you're in a rush and just want to stop by, head upstairs to their Moonlight Lounge. Cool wooden decor, a patio that overlooks part of downtown, and a quick bite and suds can be had. Either establishment will impress your lady friend so it's worth the time to head on in. Long story short, glad Solace and Moonlight Lounge have moved into town as I now have a reason to wear a button down shirt, pants, and shoes.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.

SURF:

We’re definitely starting to wean ourselves off of summer. We’ve got five days  left in the season, there’s more activity starting to occur in the Aleutians,  we’re never going to hit 70 degrees again in the water temp department, we’ve  got drizzle outside today, and temps are about 10 degrees below normal for this  time of year. Not exactly Christmastime conditions but it sure doesn’t feel or look like summer anymore.

Today we’ve got mainly small NW windswell with just  leftover small SW groundswell. Most beaches are waist high with the odd chest  high set in far north OC and far south SD. Add in the drizzle and 5mph S winds  and it looks pretty uneventful out there today. Tomorrow the SW looks to be gone  with just leftover waist high+ NW windswell. Sunday we may see signs of a new  small SW but more than likely it will be towards Monday. All in all not an  exciting weekend for surf. Water temps are holding in the mid-60's and the tides  the next few days are 2’ at sunrise, 5’ at noon, and down to 1’ at sunset. Make  sure to keep up to date on the swells and conditions at Twitter/North County Surf

FORECAST:

After a small weekend of surf, things start to turn the corner slightly. We have  a small but fun waist to chest high SW lining up for Monday and the beginning of  the week as well as some NW windswell filling in. We’ll have little skate park  conditions at the beachbreaks. The weather should also start to clean up too  (more on that below). Charts are showing the north Pacific coming alive with a  storm forming the middle of next week which may send our first fun NW  groundswell of the season towards Thursday. Nothing big but probably head high  in south SD.

As far as the tropics are concerned, we have a little area of  disturbed weather off mainland Mexico but it doesn’t look that exciting-  especially since the ocean is cooling off down there due to the change in  seasons and La Nina influence. I don’t expect a lot of good things happening  down there the rest of the year. So I guess all eyes are starting to focus on  the Aleutians for the near future…

WEATHER:

Just another odd late season (or early season) cold front coming down the coast  today, possibly influenced by La Nina (remember how cold last summer was- then  all the rain we got in the winter)?! Our weak front today is bringing drizzle  and temps about 10 degrees cooler than normal at the beaches. The ugly weather  holds until tomorrow and starts to clear a little Sunday. By early next week we  have high pressure building as the low exits the region and late summer warm  temps are on tap. Models show that holding through the week. Things may change  towards the end of next week as another low pressure stystem starts to move down the California coast and it may suck in some tropical moisture from the south.  That would result in an increase in humidity and maybe a slight chance of  thunderstorms again across the region.

BEST BET:

Tough call- maybe Monday with the new little SW and NW and nicer beach weather  OR wait for the new NW to show in SD towards Thursday. Depends on where you live  I guess.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Good article in the San Diego Union Tribune this week. There’s been a lot of  talk about potential  impacts of global warming around the world- especially rising ocean levels and how they will impact the coast from a financial  standpoint. But not a lot of information about the SD region. Until now. Here’s what the newspaper found out:

“Torrey Pines beaches – among the most popular sections of county coastline –  would suffer from fewer visitors and major infrastructure damage if the oceans  rise as scientists predict, according to a study released Tuesday about the costs of sea-level rise along California's shores. Economists from San Francisco State University looked at five coastal areas to gauge the impact of higher water levels that are expected as the oceans warm, expand and climb higher onto land. At Torrey Pines, they projected an average of about $1 million a year in reduced tourism spending and a total of about $350 million in damage to roads and railways from erosion and other forces by 2100. The researchers also assessed sea-level rise at Ocean Beach in San Francisco County; Venice Beach and

Malibu beaches in Los Angeles County; and Carpinteria beaches in Santa Barbara County. They said the study should be used to plan for adapting to the effects of climate change. Funded by the California Department of Boating and Waterways, the researchers examined the costs of coastal storm damage and erosion, both of which are expected to increase as sea levels rise. In addition, they predicted the economic impact of sea level rise on tourism and natural habitats, as beaches that have been narrowed by erosion lose their appeal to visitors and their ability to sustain wildlife. "Sea level rise will send reverberations throughout local and state economies," said Philip King, a co-author and economics professor at San Francisco State. "We also found that the economic risks and responses to a changing coastline will vary greatly over time and from beach to beach." If sea levels rise 4.6 feet by 2100, the latest report shows that Torrey Pines city and state beaches could see:

• $5 million in damages caused by a 100-year coastal flood, including damage to cars and roads.

• $99 million in tourism spending and local and state tax revenue losses (accumulated between now and 2100) caused by a narrower, eroded beach attracting fewer paying visitors.

• $20.2 million in habitat and recreation losses caused by erosion significantly reducing the beach area.

• $348.7 million caused by land, road and railway lines being lost or damaged by erosion and subsidence, including damage to the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Luis Obispo rail corridor.

While some skeptics doubt the idea of significant sea-level increases, scientists and government officials across the country take the issue seriously. A recent paper by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography said complex interactions of air and water currents have held sea-level rise along the West Coast far below the global average in recent decades. It said signs point to a major shift in ocean dynamics that is expected to reduce the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters off the coast. If that happens, waters stuck near the surface are expected to heat, expand and creep higher onto land more like they have elsewhere.  Local governments in San Diego County are among

the most aggressive in the country when it comes to preparing for higher seas, which are predicted to rise up to 18 inches by 2050 compared with the 20th century. Worst-case scenarios for 2100 show a much more dramatic increase of about 60 inches, forcing local officials to consider strategic retreats from the coast in places, more shoreline defenses in spots and altering infrastructure in

other areas.”

Basically low lying areas like Imperial Beach, Mission Beach, Scripps, Torrey Pines, Cardiff, Ponto, and Oceanside would see a lot of flooding. Surf those spots before they get hit with permanent high tide!

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Staying with the ‘Christmastime’ theme for the week, I’ve posted snowboard, outerwear, and goggle deals on the North County Surf blog. It’s never too early to start thinking about snow, is it?  Check out the deals in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Considering it’s cold, small, and drizzly outside, I thought I’d give you some hope: Somewhere out there there’s a small island with warm temps waiting for you to get barreled. You just need a stash of cash and a good boat to find it. Good luck!

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Revolutionary

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