Where to begin.
SURF:
The week started off with some great weather and a little bit of fun SW/NW combo surf. By Wednesday the great weather continued and the surf dropped to the knee high range. Today we’ve got some high clouds and light warm offshore winds as the next round of swells fill in. Last night the central CA buoys picked up rapidly but it’s still only waist high here this morning. 
We should have a quick increase in wave heights after lunch though. The storm that created this new swell is now sitting offshore from us and has been the past 2 days so we may get a unique swell from it- the first round is NW as the storm started in the Aleutians then it will turn more W as the storm has been sitting offshore from us. We also have some background SW filling in. Hopefully by this evening all 3 swells will be in the water for head high waves. Then it gets tricky tomorrow. Part of the storm is forecasted to come ashore and the swell will pick up slightly too. We could get overhead storm surf or if the storm continues to stay away from us, clean condition and lots of surf. The models are all over the place so I guess we won’t know until tomorrow morning. Long story short, we should have tons of swell tomorrow but it may be clean or it may be junky. Sunday the swells drop quickly and we should have some sort of good weather- regardless if the storm comes ashore or not.
Tides the next few days are 4’ at sunrise, 6’ at 9am, -1’ at 4pm, and 2’ at sunset. Water temps are 60. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at North County Surf/Twitter.
FORECAST:
After the swells/pseudo-storm passes through this weekend, we’re left with nice conditions again for early in the week but no real surf to speak off. Models show a little blip from the NW on Wednesday for probably chest high waves in south county SD. 
We may have another storm next weekend and associated head high+ NW swell again. I’ll have to keep an eye on it. Basically we’re headed towards winter time so it’s not out of the question to think we’ll be getting more showers and junky NW swell for next weekend.
As far as the southern hemisphere goes, pretty quiet this time of year. Don't expect anything for at least the next couple of weeks.
WEATHER:
As advertised above, we’ve got an odd storm sitting about 500 due W off Point Conception. Early models run a few days ago showed this storm slamming us with 2” of rain and lots of wind. But it’s been stubborn as high pressure earlier this week has kept the storm out to sea. So now it’s just sitting out there and it doesn’t know if it wants to come ashore or not. Latest model runs have it moving down the coast later today and maybe moving in to central Baja tomorrow. If that’s the case, maybe we’ll get ¼-1/2” of rain and a little wind. We need the rain unfortunately but I’m glad if the surf won’t get too blown out. After the storm makes some kind of move this weekend, we’re left with clearing skies Sunday and nice weather next week. Models then show maybe another storm headed our way for next weekend.
BEST BET:
Get your work done today and sneak out of the office for a late afternoon session! We should have good weather still and a building swell. NEWS OF THE WEEK:
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center came out with their updated La Nina forecast yesterday and the synopsis is: La Niña is entrenched and expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12. Here’s the scientific mumbo jumbo (Cliffs Notes are at the bottom):During October 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with La Niña conditions strengthened across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Also, the atmospheric circulation over the global tropics featured strong week-to-week variability during October. Averaged over the month, convection remained suppressed near the Date Line in association with La Niña, but was near-normal over Indonesia as the MJO acted to offset the increased convection typically associated with La Niña.
A majority of the models now predict La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and then gradually weaken after peaking during the November - January period. The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to rebuild to previous La Nina levels the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
During November 2011-January 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S. with the odds favoring below-average temperatures over the north-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the northern tier of states, excluding New England, and drier-than-average conditions are more probable across the southern tier of the U.S.
Now- if you got through all of that without falling asleep- here’s the abridged version: Look for typical La Nina conditions this winter- colder than normal temperatures, below average rain, and of course, more sunny skies. So what happened during last winter’s so called La Nina with abnormally abundant rain? We had an exception to the rule- the Pineapple Express- which shot a plume of moisture from Hawaii to southern California- most noticeably December 17th-22nd- which dumped up to an extra 10 inches of rain in the region. That kind of fly in the ointment will skew any kind of data. Without a deluge like that again this winter, we’ll be below normal in rainfall this season- typical of a La Nina.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Slideshows, freakshows, and no-shows. That pretty much wraps up the week on the North County Surf blog. From some epic surf shots I’ve taken over the years (I’m a legend in my own mind), from a newly discovered mutant slab in Australia, to the flat surf the past few days, catch all the action in the blog below! PIC OF THE WEEK:
With the advent of flexible fullsuits, surfing in a 6/5/4 feels like a 3/2. Ok, maybe not a 3/2, but pretty darn stretchy; even with booties, gloves, AND a hood. Take for instance this wave in the northwest. You’re telling me you wouldn’t don thick rubber just to get some solo righthand point surf? Sure it’s probably full of Orca’s and the ice cream headaches would kill the average man as well as the 20 knot current running down the point. It’s worth it! Right? Of course it is. Just beware the bears on the beach. For more pics that will make you quit your job and move up north, take a look at Mark Mcinnis' site.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
ExpertFormer Charger Fan
Introduced Buzzy to Makaha
