Calm Before The Storm 2.
SURF:
Look for head high sets in north county SD and overhead sets in south county SD by Sunday morning. The OC will have shoulder high sets in north county and chest high waves in south county. The storm generating this swell is headed our way and models have the bulk staying offshore like last weekend’s scenario. There’s a couple slight differences between this weekend and last weekend though- the storm last weekend sat offshore for a couple days and gave us an odd short period SW swell and great conditions. This weekend’s storm will stay offshore too but not sit in one place for too long. It will also move towards us Sunday evening so we’ll get more SW winds rather than the offshore winds like last weekend. Long story short, we may get some drizzle Saturday morning with building surf and cleaner conditions and peaking swell Sunday morning- but deteriorating conditions Sunday afternoon when the storm finally comes ashore. No big deal- nice to have some rideable surf regardless of the conditions.
Tides are pretty mellow the next few days: 3’ at sunrise, 2’ at 9am, 4’ at 3pm, and 2’ at sunset. Water temps are high 50’s. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf
FORECAST:
After the NW swell and on again/off again conditions this weekend, the first part of the week look pretty small; but we’ll have nice weather! Models are showing more activity in the Aleutians this weekend and we should have some head high+ surf for the Thanksgiving weekend (most likely Thursday and Sunday swells)- but maybe rain again. With 4 days off, I’m going to surf my brains out so I can work off that turkey/mashed potatoes/cranberry/stuffing/gravy/pie gut.
As far as the southern hemisphere goes, it's been pretty quiet down there- which is typical of course this time of year. Models show a tiny storm around the 23rd which may shoot a waist high+ SW towards the end of the month. Nothing to get excited about.
WEATHER:
As advertised above, we’ve got another storm moving down from the Aleutians but it’s staying offshore again. We should get a little brush from the storm tomorrow morning for some sprinkles then the models are showing the center of the low moving into northern Baja Sunday afternoon for some light rain here. Nothing major but just enough to add to our rain totals. The first part of next week look nice as high pressure builds for hazy sunshine then more storms are forecasted to take aim at southern California again for the Thanksgiving weekend. Too early to tell what kind of impact they’ll have but look for at least cloudy skies and showers for a few days- possibly starting on Turkey Day.
BEST BET:
With light showers Saturday morning and more shower activity Sunday evening, looks like Saturday night/Sunday morning will have the cleanest conditions. AND the peak of the NW swell. So if you’ve got a date with your girl Saturday evening, then hit it Sunday morning. Or if you’ve got a date with God Sunday morning, then hit it Saturday evening. I guess you have to ask yourself- are you a sinner or a saint? (Sorry, bad joke). NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The thing I hate the most in surfing is red tides. Well, maybe not the worst- that would be sharks. Oh! And I hate thick fog ‘cause you can’t see the sets. Wait wait! And I hate crowds! And I hate it when it’s flat! And I hate guys in shortjohns and booties on eggs at Lowers! Where was I?... Oh! I hate red tides! Well NOAA is working on predicting the annoying red tides so we can be better prepared for them. Scientists researching harmful algal bloom “hot spots” off southern and central California have been awarded $800k+ for the first year of an anticipated 5-year 4 million dollar project to investigate methods that could provide early warning detection of the toxic blooms, also known as red tides. The research is being conducted in partnership with two U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System partners — the Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System and the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System. The teams will combine the detection and monitoring of the toxic blooms with ocean models that can forecast ocean conditions, potentially leading to bloom predictions. The project will boost the capabilities of California management agencies to safeguard living resources, public health, and economies. As Gregg Langlois, senior environmental scientist with the California Department of Public Health notes, “Improving our understanding of the environmental conditions that are conducive to a toxic bloom would help focus our sampling effort so we can alert the public to dangerous toxin levels in seafood.” Some species of red tides produce a toxin that when eaten can lead to potentially fatal human illness. The toxins can also cause illness and death in marine mammals and birds. This project will allow scientists to detect and measure levels of some toxic cells in water samples, providing officials with an early warning of increased potential of shellfish. The research will also address the question of whether nutrient pollution from the land is enhancing toxic algal blooms. Research will be carried out at the University of California Santa Cruz, the University of Southern California, Moss Landing Marine Laboratory, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, University of California Los Angeles, and NOAA Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research. “This new effort will help us address a critical gap in past research, namely understanding the conditions leading to toxic blooms before they become a problem,” said Raphael M. Kudela, professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz and project lead. “We are particularly excited because the project combines expertise from research and state public health managers in California with the developing national observing network established by NOAA.” The study was funded through a national competition of the Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB) Program run by NOAA’s National Ocean Service/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science.BEST OF THE BLOG:
What to do when there’s no surf? Read the North County Surf blog of course! Find wetsuit deals in the middle of winter. Have a gander at Mason Ho looking like the new Buttons. Mid-week Surf Checks of course. Yet another sign the recession is over- more homes being built in north county. And a more detailed THE Surf Report. All of that and more in the blog below! PIC OF THE WEEK:
Man do these sheep have it good. All the grass they can eat. A natural wool coat to keep warm. Plenty of open land to roam around. And this slab all to themselves! Well, they can’t surf- but give ‘em enough time and evolution will solve that problem for them. For more swell Scottish pics, check out Deepzine.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
SuitableConsoling Ashton
Eddie Invitee
